Maloy keeps razor-thin lead over Jenkins — still out of recount range, but inching closer

Congresswoman Celeste Maloy takes her opportunity to talk after Utah’s 2nd Congressional district debate between and herself and Colby Jenkins at the KUED studios at the University of Utah in Salt Lake City on Monday, June 10, 2024. (Pool photo by Scott G Winterton/Deseret News)

As the number of yet-to-be counted ballots shrinks, so does Rep. Celeste Maloy’s slim lead over her Republican challenger Colby Jenkins.

Still, Maloy remains ahead (barely) in the battle to keep her seat representing Utah’s 2nd Congressional District on the fourth day of ballot counting in a yet-to-be called race.

More election results posted Friday after 3:45 p.m. showed Maloy had 50.18% of the vote to Jenkins’ 49.82%.

Thursday evening, only 991 votes separated the two candidates with 103,575 ballots tabulated. Friday — after about 2,072 more votes were tallied in the district, bringing the total to 105,647 — Maloy continued to narrowly maintain her lead, now only by about 381 votes.

“We began today down 959 … It’s now 381. Every vote counts, every vote will matter,” Jenkins said on X after Friday’s results posted. “There are nearly 53,000 members of our A-Team whose voices remain strong and hopeful to see victory still.”

Southern Utah’s Washington County — where Jenkins lives in St. George and where he has found a stronghold against Maloy, who has been leading him in most other counties across the state — added about 1,823 votes to the tally on Friday, bringing the county’s total to 35,612 so far counted.

That’s likely the last significant chunk of ballots to be tallied in that county, though the Washington County Clerk/Auditor said there are roughly 700 remaining that poll workers are working to cure by contacting voters to verify signatures, KSL TV reported. 

In Washington County, Jenkins leads Maloy with about 59% of the vote. He’s trailing, however, in other counties across the state, including along the Wasatch Front. Tooele County was the only other moderately-sized county where Jenkins is ahead of Maloy, leading with just over 52%. 

In Salt Lake County, an area where Maloy has led Jenkins, Clerk Lannie Chapman told Utah News Dispatch on Thursday that day’s batch of results was likely the last major update, though there are still some lingering ballots that need to be cured. 

Though Jenkins’ campaign told Deseret News on Friday they’re crossing their fingers for the possibility of a recount, as of Friday afternoon the race was not close enough to cross the required margin threshold. Utah law allows a losing candidate to call for a recount if the margin is equal to or less than 0.25% of the total number of votes cast. As votes stand currently, that would require the margin separating Jenkins and Maloy to be no more than roughly 264 votes. 

Matthew Burbank, political science professor at the University of Utah, told Utah News Dispatch on Thursday that while Maloy’s lead could shrink as more ballots are counted, he said it’s appearing unlikely that the race will flip.

“I think unless something odd happens here, she’s probably going to win,” he said.

The Maloy-Jenkins Republican matchup has been Utah’s closest congressional race this primary — an election influenced by complex and competing dynamics that showcased a split in Utah’s Republican Party. 

The race was marked by dueling endorsements — Sen. Mike Lee threw his support behind Jenkins days before the Utah GOP’s convention in April. Then, with barely a week to go before the state’s primary election, former President Donald Trump endorsed Maloy. 

That’s even though Jenkins tried to portray himself as a candidate more modeled after Trump, having criticized Maloy for her vote in support of a bipartisan spending package. Jenkins argued Maloy was surrendering the GOP’s slim House majority and as a result was advancing Democratic interests. 

Maloy, however, defended her vote as the most fiscally responsible option, calling careful compromise a key to maintaining bargaining power in Congress and promising she won’t bend on the issues most important to Utah.

Election results aren’t final until after counties’ canvass deadline on July 9, and the statewide canvass certifies the results on July 22. 

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