Maloy’s lead narrows to less than 1% in nail biter for Utah’s 2nd Congressional District

Utah’s 2nd Congressional district debate between Colby Jenkins and Congresswoman Celeste Maloy at the KUED studios at the University of Utah in Salt Lake City on Monday, June 10, 2024. (Pool photo by Scott G Winterton/Deseret News)

Rep. Celeste Maloy’s lead over her challenger Colby Jenkins continued to narrow when updated results were posted Thursday, on the third day of ballot counting in a race that’s been too close to call.

Another batch of election results posted after 4:45 p.m. Thursday showed Maloy had 50.48% of the vote to Jenkins’ 49.52%.

Wednesday evening, 1,907 votes separated the two candidates with 92,355 ballots tabulated. Thursday — after about 11,220 more votes were tallied statewide — Maloy continues to narrowly maintain her lead, now only by about 991 votes. 

Salt Lake County, the most populated portion of Utah’s 2nd Congressional District, posted about 2,311 more 2nd Congressional District votes Thursday, in what Salt Lake County Clerk Lannie Chapman told Utah News Dispatch is likely the last major batch of results for this year’s primary. 

“We should have the majority — everything that we can scan and tabulate, scanned and tabulated (posted tonight). The only thing that we’ll have left is those that need to be cured,” Chapman said, referring to vote-by-mail ballots poll workers are working to correct. 

There could be some lingering vote-by-mail ballots still making their way to her office, but she said there likely aren’t many left. For example, Thursday “we received maybe 90 good ballots” that were postmarked on time. 

“But again, we’re talking onesie, twosie, as far as Salt Lake County’s concerned,” she said. 

Jenkins has gained ground on Maloy with significant momentum in southern Utah’s Washington County. There, he found a stronghold, not just in percentage but also in terms of the sheer number of votes. Of the 33,780 votes so far tabulated in that race, Jenkins secured 19,871 to Maloy’s 13,909. 

The Maloy-Jenkins Republican matchup has been Utah’s closest congressional race this primary — an election influenced by complex and competing dynamics that showcased a split in Utah’s Republican Party. 

The race was marked by dueling endorsements — Sen. Mike Lee threw his support behind Jenkins days before the Utah GOP’s convention in April. Then, with barely a week to go before Election Day, former President Donald Trump endorsed Maloy. 

That’s even though Jenkins tried to portray himself as a candidate more modeled after Trump, having criticized Maloy for her vote in support of a bipartisan spending package. Jenkins argued Maloy was surrendering the GOP’s slim House majority and as a result was advancing Democratic interests. 

Maloy, however, defended her vote as the most fiscally responsible option, calling careful compromise a key to maintaining bargaining power in Congress and promising she won’t bend on the issues most important to Utah.

The race shaped up to be highly competitive, and it’s “hard to know what to make of it given the competing endorsements,” said Chris Karpowitz, a political science professor at Brigham Young University, but bottom line, both candidates are “really conservative,” and Utah’s Republican voters may have had a tough time choosing between them. 

Maloy has likely benefited from her incumbent status — but then again, she wasn’t an incumbent for very long, given she only won her seat in a special election in November after former Rep. Chris Stewart stepped down due to his wife’s illness. 

Jenkins, however, rode a wave of support by styling himself as a “warrior,” parading his time as a combat veteran and a U.S. Army Special Forces Green Beret. He won the hearts of state delegates at the Utah GOP’s nominating convention, but not enough to keep Maloy off the ballot. 

Colby won 57% at convention — 3% shy of clinching the nomination — while Maloy got 43%, which she was relying on heavily since she did not collect signatures to qualify under Utah’s dual path to the ballot. 

It’s unclear how much of an impact Trump’s endorsement of Maloy could have had on the race given it came about a week before Election Day, and because it was at odds with Jenkins’ endorsement from Lee, who has been a vocal Trump supporter. 

“Things like endorsements matter, and the endorsements here were split in an odd way,” Karpowitz said. 

Matthew Burbank, political science professor at the University of Utah, said the close race between Maloy and Jenkins “illustrates the complex nature of the Republican Party at the moment.” 

“Primaries always tend to do that to a certain extent,” he said. “On the one hand, there’s something quite predictable here in the sense that if you’re going to challenge a sitting member of Congress, you want to do that as soon as you possibly can. … But it was a bit of a surprise to me because at least everything that I had been hearing from Republicans about Maloy was they thought she was hitting the ground running, they thought she was being very responsive.” 

However, the “strength” of Jenkins “was a bit of a surprise to me,” he said. 

Results show Maloy took healthy leads over Jenkins in most counties. However, Jenkins led Maloy in other rural areas, including Tooele (52%) and Washington (nearly 59%) counties.

While there may still be some lingering ballots, as of Thursday Burbank said it appeared unlikely that Jenkins would be able to flip the race. While close, results haven’t reached the razor thin margins needed to be within recount range, which would be roughly 260 votes. 

“Based on the pattern we usually see (with results), I wouldn’t expect it would change,” Burbank said, adding that Maloy’s lead could grow or shrink as more ballots are tallied, but he predicted she’ll remain in the lead. “I think unless something odd happens here, she’s probably going to win.”

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