Marquette Poll finds near-even match between Harris, Trump in Wisconsin

Erik Gunn
·2 min read
7
Milwaukee voters go to the polls on Election Day 2022 | Photo by Isiah Holmes
Milwaukee voters go to the polls on Election Day 2022 | Photo by Isiah Holmes

A sign in Milwaukee directs voters to a local polling place. (Isiah Holmes | Wisconsin Examiner)

A one point margin separates Republican former President Donald Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential contest in Wisconsin, according to a new survey conducted by the Marquette Law School Poll.

Trump has the support of 50% of registered voters in the survey, versus 49% for Harris in a direct matchup. Among likely voters, the standings are reversed, with Harris chosen by 50% and Trump by 49%.

When other candidates are included, Harris is slightly ahead among both registered voters and likely voters. Harris is preferred by 45% of registered voters and 46% of likely voters; Trump is the choice of 43% of registered voters and 45% of likely voters.

Among other candidates, only Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is favored by more than 1% of those surveyed: 8% of registered voters, and 6% of likely voters.

The survey result released Wednesday is the Marquette poll’s first since President Joe Biden stepped aside from the 2024 presidential race and Harris stepped in as the Democratic candidate.

In the previous Marquette survey, conducted before the debate in late June in which Biden’s performance prompted growing calls for the president to drop his reelection bid, Biden and Trump were each tied with 50% among registered voters. Among likely voters, Biden garnered 51% and Trump 49%.

The new poll shows Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin with the support of 53% of those surveyed among registered voters, seven percentage points ahead of her likely Republican challenger, Eric Hovde, with 46%. Among likely voters, Baldwin leads with 52% to Hovde’s 47%.

The survey was conducted from July 24 — three days after Biden dropped out on July 21 and endorsed Harris — to Aug. 1, concluding five days before Harris named Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her vice presidential candidate.

The survey interviewed 877 Wisconsin registered voters, of whom 801 were considered likely voters. The results have a margin of error of 4.6 percentage points for registered voters and 4.8 percentage points for likely voters.

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