Massive tropical wave to approach Florida, could form into depression, hurricane center says
A tropical wave with thunderstorms stretching more than 600 miles from north to south moving over the northern Caribbean islands could form into a tropical depression in the Gulf of Mexico near Florida, according to the National Hurricane Center.
As of the NHC’s 2 p.m. tropical outlook Thursday, the well-defined tropical wave was producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms across Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the southeastern Bahamas and waters of both the northeastern Caribbean Sea and southwestern Atlantic Ocean.
“Development of this system should be slow to occur during the next day or so while it moves west-northwestward over portions of the Greater Antilles,” said NHC senior hurricane specialist Jack Beven. “However, environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for development after the wave passes the Greater Antilles, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week over the eastern Gulf of Mexico near the Florida peninsula.”
The NHC gives it a 30% chance to develop in the next two days and 70% within the next seven.
The NHC’s potential path based on varying forecast models has shifted more to the west, although the entire Florida peninsula remains within the area that could be affected by the system.
“Interests across the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Florida should continue to monitor the progress of this system,” Beven said.
The tropical wave stretches over a long distance from the Caribbean Sea all the way north to just east of the Turks and Caicos in the Atlantic. It’s moving west around 20 mph and the northern end has seen wave heights of 7 to 9 feet Thursday morning.
“The tropical wave and attendant winds, seas and weather will shift across the waters to the north of Hispaniola through Thursday. A trough will continue to move west-northwest across the Bahamas Thursday night through Friday night, then continue west- northwest Saturday and Sunday and impact portions of the Straits of Florida, South Florida and the southeast Gulf of Mexico,” said NHC tropical analysis lead forecaster Eric Christensen.
The National Weather Service in Melbourne said it’s uncertain what effects the system will have on Central Florida, but for now forecasts up to 2 inches of rain in some areas.
“This feature remains shrouded in mystery in terms of placement, track and strength. Latest model guidance does show a more westward formation/track that could take it up the eastern Gulf and possibly becoming a tropical depression sometime this weekend or early next week,” said NWS Meteorologist Tim Sedlock. “Models will continue to have a problem with this feature until a low actually develops.”
Those totals increase farther south, according to NWS Miami, but the intensity of the wave and whether or not it gets circulation remains up in the air.
“Regardless of how and if this system develops, the main takeaway currently is that deep tropical moisture will continue to be pushing into the region throughout the weekend and into early next week.” said NWS Miami Meteorologist Chuck Caracozza. “This could result in the potential for above average rainfall during this time frame with the abundance of moisture in place.
The forecast calls for multiple rounds of heavy downpours over the same areas that could bring localized flooding.
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has been quiet for the last three weeks as dry Saharan dust has stymied development over the ocean, although water temperatures remain above normal.
So far the season has seen three named storms including Hurricane Beryl that plowed through the Caribbean, Mexico and Texas in early July.
Hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30, but the height of storm formation runs from mid-August into October.
