Miami Mayor Francis Suarez floats a run for Florida governor. Does he have a shot?

From rubbing elbows at the Republican National Convention last week to spending six figures on political consulting and related services this summer, Francis Suarez appears to be laying the groundwork to run for higher political office as he approaches his final year as Miami’s mayor.

Suarez hasn’t been particularly shy about the topic. Speaking to NBC News’ Tom Llamas last week, the two-term mayor indicated what could be on the horizon.

“So for me, I think from a resume perspective, one thing that would be interesting is — looking at an ecosystem like the state of Florida — potentially running for governor,” Suarez said, adding: “It’s something that I would consider, for sure.”

On Tuesday, the mayor’s spokeswoman left the door open for Suarez’s higher political aspirations.

“Under his leadership, Miami has become one of the most attractive cities in the world,” Stephanie Severino said in a statement to the Miami Herald.

“While this is a compelling record for any candidate for Governor or any other office,” Severino continued, “Mayor Suarez’s sole focus at this time is on serving the residents of Miami for the remainder of his term. Any other opportunities to serve the nation or the state of Florida will be considered at the appropriate time.”

Suarez handily won reelection in 2021 with over 78% of the vote in the mayoral race in Miami, where day-to-day operations are run by an appointed city manager. But securing the Republican nomination in a closed statewide gubernatorial primary is a different ball game from winning a local nonpartisan race. And Suarez’s past political blunders — paired with local, state and federal investigations into his alleged financial dealings — have created hurdles that could block his path to becoming Florida’s top elected official, according to political insiders.

David Custin, a veteran political consultant who’s worked with Suarez in the past, said the mayor’s chances of winning a statewide partisan election are “nonexistent.”

“I’m neck-deep in Republican party politics, and nobody sees him as a credible Republican candidate for a statewide primary,” Custin said. “It’s not even funny. It’s not credible.”

Regardless, Suarez’s political committee — with about $1.8 million in the bank — continues to stay active.

PAC spending

Since early June, Suarez’s state-level political committee, Miami for Everyone, has spent about $126,000 on what appears to be campaign-related activity, according to campaign finance records.

On June 3, Miami for Everyone reported paying $20,000 to Artisan Media Group for “media platform development,” as well as $51,500 to the consulting firm Berthier Group for “research and data services” and “political & communications consulting” for services rendered in April, May and June. On July 1, the political committee reported paying $28,446 to Artisan, this time for a “direct mail campaign project,” and another $27,000 to Berthier Group, again for political consulting.

Berthier Group is operated by Jesse Manzano-Plaza, a longtime political consultant for Suarez. In a statement to the Herald, Manzano-Plaza said his work for Suarez over the years has included “conducting polling and research on community-wide issues, among other political and campaign related activities.” He did not elaborate on the exact purpose of the recent expenditures — totaling $78,500 — that Miami for Everyone made to Berthier Group in June and July. Artisan Media Group did not respond to a request for comment.

Miami for Everyone, which received a $1 million contribution from billionaire Ken Griffin last year, had about $1.8 million it its coffers as of early July, according to campaign finance records.

‘RINO’ reputation looms

Suarez faced heightened criticism starting last spring when a lawsuit revealed he had worked as a $10,000-per-month consultant for embattled developer Rishi Kapoor, who hired Suarez after more than a year of working the mayor’s channels at City Hall to push through legislation beneficial to one of the developer’s planned projects in Coconut Grove.

But it was a political blunder that occurred years before that harmed some of Suarez’s relationships in Tallahassee, according to political insiders who spoke with the Herald. During the 2018 gubernatorial race, Suarez told the Herald he voted for Andrew Gillum, a Democrat, over Ron DeSantis — a move that earned him the reputation in some political circles as a “RINO,” or Republican in name only.

In the years after, Suarez pivoted to embrace the tech and cryptocurrency world, becoming known as the “Bitcoin mayor” as he pushed for Miami to become a technology hub during the pandemic. But last year, as crypto’s reputation took a major hit following the FTX collapse, Suarez leaned into the GOP brand by launching his presidential campaign as a Republican challenger to Donald Trump.

When Suarez first entertained rumors of running for president back in 2021, he cast himself as a moderate Republican. As he emerged as a contender last summer, Suarez debuted his more conservative beliefs, announcing, for example, that the overturning of Roe v. Wade was “the greatest day defending life in our history.”

Seventy-six days into his presidential campaign, after failing to qualify for the first Republican presidential debate, Suarez dropped out of the race, becoming the first GOP candidate to do so. The short-lived campaign didn’t do much in the way of proving his loyalty to Florida Republicans, said Christian Cámara, a Miami native and Tallahassee lobbyist.

“My first question would be, under what party?” Cámara said when asked about the prospect of Suarez running for governor.

Cámara called Suarez “a career-minded opportunist that will say or do anything to get elected.”

“I wouldn’t put it past him to run for whatever just to stay relevant,” Cámara said.

On Sunday, after President Joe Biden announced that he was dropping out of the presidential race, Suarez released statements on Instagram and X, formerly known as Twitter, supporting Donald Trump, who he said will “restore America’s stability, prosperity and national security.” Suarez formally endorsed Trump in March.

Custin, who called Suarez a “dear friend,” said the mayor’s endorsement of Trump was too little, too late in proving his allegiance to the GOP. The same was true for Suarez’s presidential bid, according to Custin, who said last year’s campaign “did not help his political credibility.”

“That’s not the red team. That’s the Francis team,” Custin said. “That’s pure self-confidence beyond an excessive level.”

Suarez told Politico earlier this year that, in addition to considering a run for governor, he would also be open to a position in the Trump Administration.

Severino, the mayor’s spokeswoman, did not directly answer a question about whether Suarez has had conversations with the Trump campaign about a potential Cabinet position but said that Suarez “has the strongest conservative record of any Mayor in America.”

‘Very young and vibrant’

Despite the critics, Suarez has supporters in his corner who believe he can ascend to a state-level executive office — including his own father.

“A lot of things point in the right direction for him. ... He’s extremely energetic, extremely charismatic,” Xavier Suarez, who was Miami’s first Cuban-born mayor, said in an interview with the Herald. “There’s obviously a following. Whether that translates into a partisan election or not, I don’t know.”

Xavier Suarez, an independent, said his son’s decision to vote for Gillum years ago is not the same as having actively supported the Democrat. He added that the younger Suarez has good will “even in north Florida, which is a different kind of environment from down here.”

The same month of the Gillum gaffe, Suarez faced another setback when Miami voters roundly rejected his push to expand the responsibilities of the city’s mayor, a role that is largely ceremonial. He floated the strong-mayor concept again during his State of the City address at the start of 2024 but has yet to put forward an official proposal on the matter.

Even so, “he really has run the city in many ways like a strong mayor,” Xavier Suarez said.

State Rep. Alex Rizo, who leads the Miami-Dade Republican Party, said he spoke with Suarez during the RNC in Milwaukee last week, but the prospect of a gubernatorial run didn’t come up.

“I think he would be a pretty strong candidate,” Rizo told the Herald. “He looks very young and vibrant. He comes from a political family. He’s bilingual, which certainly helps in Florida.”

The upcoming Florida governor’s race has already drawn interest from a number of potential Republican contenders. In a packed race like that, said lobbyist Ron Book, a candidate might need to secure only about 30% of the vote in order to be the “winner-take-all nominee.” In such a scenario, Book said, it’s possible for Suarez to win the Republican nomination.

“Nothing has ever stopped Francis or Xavier from thinking that they have opportunities that maybe they don’t have,” Book said. “I’m simply saying that in a very, very crowded Republican primary, a lot of things can happen.”

Custin said Suarez would fare better in a nonpartisan election, like the Miami-Dade County mayoral race in 2028.

“He would be formidable,” Custin said of Suarez running for county mayor, a race that he said is “a different chess board.”

“His fundraising prowess is unquestionable,” Custin said. “He’s a fantastic fundraiser.”

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Still, questions loom about the local, state and federal investigations that have entangled Suarez.

“The truth of the matter is I do think he’s in legal trouble,” Cámara said.

Book agreed, saying he doesn’t “think anybody can ignore” the investigations.

“He may be in denial about what those investigations look like,” Book added.

Xavier Suarez remained optimistic, praising his son’s fundraising abilities and “enormous energy” on past campaign trails.

Asked if he himself would consider running for elected office again, such as for the soon-open Miami mayor seat, Xavier Suarez said: “I would have to say a rotund no.”

He then added that he has “not entirely discarded” the idea of re-entering politics at some point.

“Never say never,” the former mayor said.