Micah Beckwith is running as Braun's No. 2. Will that help Democrats in November?

When Noblesville pastor Micah Beckwith took the stage at the Indiana Republican convention Saturday, an entourage of supporters in Beckwith T-Shirts stood on either side, holding signs above their heads and practically jumping as they cheered. Some hoots and hollers lingered even after Beckwith started speaking. It felt like a pep rally.

State Rep. Julie McGuire, who was Republican gubernatorial nominee Mike Braun's choice for running mate, also attracted applause and cheering. But the difference was palpable. And she was alone.

"I was like, huh, where's all her supporters?" Fishers convention delegate Diane Eaton said, noting a "stark" difference.

Judging by the energy in the room, the outcome of the roughly 1,800 delegates' votes for lieutenant governor at Saturday's convention shouldn't have been surprising, but it still rocked many in the establishment. Beckwith, a self-described Christian nationalist who put in a year-plus of legwork courting delegates, swept the lieutenant governor nomination away from Sen. Braun's far less known pick ― a candidate Braun tried, and failed, to save with a last-minute Donald Trump endorsement.

More: Micah Beckwith joins Braun on Republican ticket. Who is he and what does a lt. gov. do?

Braun now has to appear on the November ballot with Beckwith, a candidate who ran on his own agenda, views the lieutenant governor role as far more influential than Braun does and campaigned on his ultraconservative views on social issues that Braun has mostly avoided talking about. Beckwith's stances may jive with party delegates who lean more conservative than Republican primary voters, but even some Republicans view some of his stances as problematic.

Republicans are all over the map on whether Saturday's result is a bomb or a blessing for the party, though few think it's that much of a game changer in key races in November. Democrats, meanwhile, are seizing on Beckwith's candidacy as an opportunity: They are launching a renewed offensive, betting that Beckwith's far-right commentary on social issues and even the riot at the Capitol on Jan. 6 could sway enough moderate voters in their direction to deliver some Democratic wins in November.

"This has been a bad week for the Indiana Republican Party," Democratic Party Chair Mike Schmuhl said Tuesday. "I think this is going to be a good week for the Indiana Democratic Party."

Why Beckwith won

Beckwith had started making a name for himself, mostly in central Indiana, as an outspoken critic of Gov. Eric Holcomb during the COVID-19 pandemic.

More than a year ago, he launched his unconventional campaign for lieutenant governor in the name of giving delegates a choice rather than a rubber stamp on the gubernatorial nominee's preference. He started traveling the state and meeting with potential delegates. He recruited people to run for the first time.

Braun and McGuire had about one month to do that legwork. But many party loyalists still felt delegates would ultimately fall in line behind Braun, who had Trump's support. To others, this felt like a familiar mistake: Two years ago, delegates also bucked the establishment when they chose Diego Morales to be secretary of state over Holcomb's choice.

The Thursday before the convention, Braun called in a favor from Trump. Rather than a lifeline, Trump's endorsement was a signal to many that things were looking dicey for McGuire.

The final dagger: Braun said on stage at the convention that the endorsement happened because Braun asked for it.

He said that to prove that he's someone who can "get things done." But it just proved to delegates, especially those who intended to support Beckwith, that Trump's endorsement of McGuire wasn't actually given because Trump knows McGuire.

"I thought it was desperation," Eaton, a Fishers business owner, said. "He showed it was just a political stunt to get people elected."

Speaking to reporters after the convention, Braun said both sides worked hard. He disputed the notion that the Trump endorsement was a Hail Mary that came too late. He said the result was delegates making a statement about their dissatisfaction with the establishment, or as he put it, "what has occurred when you're not communicating effectively in the government that we have."

He also noted that about 95 delegates didn't show up.

"It was a close victory, and I accept that," Braun said. "He worked hard to do it. We'll live with it. And we'll be okay. Don't try to turn it into anything else."

Jim Bopp warns of 'serious threat' to Braun candidacy

Shortly after the convention, a memo from a prominent conservative attorney that was leaked to the IMPORTANTVILLE newsletter sparked conversation about the conundrum Braun may face from Beckwith.

In a confidential memo to Braun's leadership team, Jim Bopp, who is the secretary-treasurer of a 501(c)4 that supports Braun's agenda, argued that Beckwith poses a "serious threat" to Braun's candidacy because Democrats could capitalize on his far-right views and, with enough money and advertising, draw enough moderate voters away from Braun and toward the Democratic gubernatorial candidate.

"In taking down Beckwith, they take down Braun," Bopp wrote.

He figures that about half of the 22% of Hoosiers who voted for Nikki Haley over Trump in the primary could be Republicans who've soured on Trump and are persuadable.

Braun's chief of staff, Josh Kelley, said the contents of that memo were Bopp's personal views and that Braun is embracing Beckwith as his partner on a "bold conservative agenda." Bopp declined to discuss the memo since it's confidential.

"I think that whoever leaked that, that was a despicable breach of trust," he said.

But the thinking he lays out is predicated on Democrats replacing their current gubernatorial nominee, former state schools superintendent Jennifer McCormick, with former Sen. Joe Donnelly ― an anti-abortion moderate Democrat who recently announced he's retiring from his post as U.S. Ambassador to the Holy See.

By all accounts, that's not in the cards. McCormick, who plans to announce her endorsement for a running mate Thursday, has no intention of stepping down. And running for governor is not on Donnelly's mind, nor is it the reason he's coming home from Rome, former campaign manager Peter Hanscom said.

If Democrats are looking to Donnelly, it's for a precedent. In 2012, Tea Party activist and state treasurer Richard Mourdock defeated six-term incumbent U.S. Sen. Dick Lugar in the primary. But in a debate with Donnelly during the general election, Mourdock said babies conceived from rape are "something that God intended to happen." Many credit Donnelly's win at least partially to the media storm over that comment.

Some Democrats think Beckwith could easily step into a similar controversial conundrum as Mourdock — or even that he already has.

Democrats are sharing a clip of a video Beckwith made on Jan. 7 in which he said that God told him "I sent those riots to Washington" and "what you saw yesterday was my hand at work."

"There is a precedent for it," former Democratic party chair Robin Winston said, referring to a Democrat overtaking a Republican on the issues. "Still, McCormick has to put together an organization and raise the money to be viable."

Could Beckwith fuel McCormick's campaign?

There's near universal agreement that McCormick needs to raise far more money to have a chance at making inroads in November ― to the tune of multiple millions, whereas as of the first quarter of this year, she has a quarter million in the bank.

McCormick said that since the convention, the resources are "coming in easier now than they were before," but acknowledged that fundraising has been a challenge in recent years. Democrats haven't won statewide office since Donnelly and former Superintendent of Public Instruction Glenda Ritz won in 2012.

"It's hard to forget, we have a lot of Democrats who've given a lot of money over the years and haven't seen a whole lot in return. And so there's a reluctance to give like many of them used to give," McCormick said Tuesday. "But there is a fever, there's a momentum, there's an urgency, not just based on the extremism of the Republican Party, but the Democrats are focused on the issues that Hoosiers care about."

Regardless of their views of Beckwith, most Republicans still think the governor's race is a lost cause for Democrats.

"She is way, way far behind," former state Rep. Mike Murphy said. "Unless their lieutenant governor is a multi-millionaire like Mike Braun, it’s a sure loss."

Where some see potential for Beckwith's conservatism to impact races is down-ballot, perhaps in some swing Statehouse district in suburban counties outside Indianapolis.

Hamilton County GOP Chair Mario Massillamany, however, thinks that's just talk ― most voters, who know little about the lieutenant governor position, are going to vote primarily for Braun.

"This is just a story that the Democrats are going to push to raise money for an anemic candidacy," he said, referring to McCormick's campaign.

Does the lieutenant governor matter that much?

Bopp argues Democrats could use Beckwith to paint all Republicans on the ticket in November, including Attorney General Todd Rokita, with a broad brush. But there's also little evidence that the lieutenant governor affects voters' choices in a significant way.

Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch served alongside Holcomb for two terms, yet nearly half of likely Republican primary voters told State Affairs/Howey Politics Indiana pollsters that they weren't aware of her gubernatorial campaign, for which she raised and spent millions of dollars.

"For McCormick to pull off the first Democrat to be elected to a statewide office since 2012, it will probably take more than a successful stand-alone lieutenant governor campaign by a conservative podcaster and political operative," said Elizabeth Bennion, a political science professor at Indiana University South Bend. "There are no foregone conclusions in politics, but it would be a huge political upset ― and a great surprise ― if Mike Braun loses the November election ― with or without Micah Beckwith on the ticket."

What probably matters more, Bennion argues, is the role Beckwith would play in a Braun administration. Beckwith, after all, pitched his lieutenant governorship as a check on the governor's office and someone with their own agenda to execute, whereas Braun has envisioned someone to be his COO.

The rejection of McGuire was seen as a rejection of Braun, Bopp argues in his memo, thereby undermining Braun's leadership and "causing division and chaos whenever Beckwith wanted to do that."

Others see this as an opportunity for unity. Those who support Beckwith think he can attract back to the party voters who felt disenfranchised by Republicans during the pandemic. In other words, a merging of the "establishment" ― Braun ― and the grassroots.

That's what how Beckwith is describing the path forward.

"If the concern is 'a Democrat will win in November,' come on," Beckwith wrote in Facebook post Tuesday. "This is the same tired rhetoric that we hear every time a strong conservative wins the primary. ... This is one of the best moments in recent memory where we have an opportunity to unite both grassroots and establishment GOP all truly under one vision and banner!"

Braun is pushing a unity message, too, but with him "in charge."

"I think that [Beckwith] will adapt to where I'm coming at, and I'm going to win in the fall," he said Saturday. "And I'm going to navigate through this. This is a challenge no different than you normally go through."

Contact IndyStar state government and politics reporter Kayla Dwyer at kdwyer@indystar.com or follow her on Twitter @kayla_dwyer17.

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Indiana Democrats see opportunity in Braun-Beckwith November ticket