Michelle Obama? Don't count on it. Odds are strongly against a Biden replacement.

[Editor's note: Back by popular demand, this updates a topic previously explored by Kevin Wagner:]

Q: Could Michelle Obama or Gavin Newsome replace Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee for president?

A: Given recent polls showing some voter dissatisfaction with the current leading candidates, it is not surprising that this question keeps coming up. In the past, I have discussed what happens if the presidential candidate must withdraw, and the process is still largely the same. While it's an intriguing scenario, the reality of such a switch would be complex and face significant hurdles.

First, it's important to understand that for Michelle Obama or anyone else to become the Democratic nominee, Joe Biden would likely need to voluntarily withdraw from the race. As the incumbent president and presumptive nominee, Biden has secured a majority of pledged delegates for the Democratic National Convention. It would be very challenging to push him out against his will. Additionally, while Michelle Obama is popular among Democrats, she has consistently expressed a lack of interest in running for office. Stepping in as a replacement nominee would thrust her into a high-pressure campaign with little preparation time.

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If Biden were to withdraw before the party convention, the process would become quite complicated. State primary filing deadlines have long passed, making it virtually impossible for a new candidate to compete for delegates through the regular primary process. Instead, the nomination would likely be decided at the convention itself. In this scenario, Biden would need to release his delegates, allowing them to support other candidates, producing a brokered convention.

A new candidate, even a potentially popular one like Michelle Obama or Gavin Newsome, would enter the convention without any pledged delegates of their own. They would need to compete with other potential nominees to build support among the released delegates. The convention floor could become a scene of intense political maneuvering, with multiple candidates potentially vying for the nomination. Obama's high profile and connection to her husband's administration might give her an advantage but she would still face challenges from other Democratic leaders who have been actively involved in party politics more recently.

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If Biden were to withdraw after the convention, the process would be different. In that case, the Democratic National Committee would convene a special session to vote on a replacement nominee. While Obama or Newsome might be popular choices among some party members, there would likely be pushback from others who might prefer a candidate who had participated in the primary process or has more recent governing experience. I suspect current Vice President Kamala Harris would want to move to the top of the ticket.

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It's worth noting that brokered conventions or last-minute nominee switches often spell trouble for parties in the general election. The last time a candidate won the presidency after securing the nomination through convention maneuvering was prior to the turn of the century. Such scenarios tend to expose party divisions and can leave the eventual nominee with little time to unify the party and campaign effectively.

Ultimately, while the scenario of a different candidate replacing Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee is an interesting thought experiment, it faces numerous practical and political obstacles. It still remains highly unlikely. The more probable outcome is that the race will continue with the current leading candidates, despite some voters' desire for different options.

Kevin Wagner is a noted constitutional scholar and political science professor at Florida Atlantic University. The answers provided do not necessarily represent the views of the university. If you have a question about how American government and politics work, email him at kwagne15@fau.edu.

This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Democrats face many hurdles to switch presidential candidate