Was Thomas Crooks a Good Shot? He Didn’t Need to Be.

Unless you have been completely offline and utterly avoiding human interaction, you know that on Saturday, 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks attempted to assassinate Donald Trump while he spoke at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. The attempt failed, and the round fired from Crooks’ AR-pattern rifle—similar to an AR-15—clipped Trump’s ear. Although Trump survived, a bystander was tragically killed, and two more were injured.

Crooks had no military training and was reportedly barred from his high school rifle team—he had such bad aim he was considered “dangerous” and a potential risk for accidentally harming his teammates.

Given Crooks’ age; his reputation as a poor shooter; recollections of him as a quiet, nonviolent, nerdy young man; and the security apparatus dedicated to protecting the Republican front-runner, many are wondering how he managed to come so close to killing the former president. Clipping Trump’s ear does not seem like terrible aim. It seems like very good aim. The bullet was an inch away from dramatically altering American political life.

So how was Crooks able to come so close to changing the course of history? We’ll never know for sure, but a major factor is the weapon itself. AR-pattern rifles are popular, for good reason. They’re incredibly well designed. They are stable, simple, easy to operate, and extremely forgiving for inexperienced shooters. This is in part why it’s so dangerous that guns like these are readily available. Just about anybody willing to hurt people with an extremely powerful weapon can do so with an AR-pattern rifle, without much expertise at all.

During my time as an intelligence officer with the Defense Intelligence Agency supporting Direct Action teams, I was issued an M4 (a very similar weapon) and had to qualify on it, demonstrating the necessary skill to be allowed to carry it. I was no expert. I wasn’t expected to engage in combat operations with my “long gun,” as we called it. I carried it so if the DA operators I was supporting were killed or if I were separated from them, I could hold position until a Quick Reaction Force could extract me. I was older and more mature than Crooks, but if his attempt to join a rifle team is any indication, I very possibly shot my gun less often than he did.

I was an excellent shot with my long gun. Most AR-pattern weapons are customized for a particular shooter in a process called zeroing. Zeroing adjusts either the weapon’s scope or its iron sights to the shooter’s individual style. The process ensures that windage (the left-to-right adjustment of the rear sight) and elevation (the up-and-down adjustment of the front sight) are dialed in so that the gun hits as dead center as possible. Zeroing is usually accomplished with a target that simulates a long shot. Although we don’t know the exact weapon Crooks used or whether he used a scope, we do have clues that he was an enthusiastic shooter: In addition to his having tried out for his school’s rifle team, he was on Saturday wearing a T-shirt advertising the gun-enthusiast YouTube channel Demolition Ranch. It’s not a stretch to consider that he might have been firing a weapon zeroed in to compensate for whatever weaknesses he may have had as a shooter.

My experience shooting my M4 was that it was incredibly stable, aptly counteracting the recoil that throws shots off. The rifle’s extendable stock’s point—that is, the end of the butt nestled “high and tight” into the divot, or pocket, of the shoulder—provided a sturdy point of pressure. I could pull the weapon in against my body, firmly stabilizing it. I accomplished this by looping my finger around the magazine well and pulling tightly. (My instructors, however, advised against this because accidentally pulling on the magazine can unseat it, causing the gun’s ammunition to misfeed into the gun if I fired, and jamming.) The result was a profoundly still-firing platform that allowed a high level of accuracy, despite my lack of experience, especially when I was prone and still on a flat surface—much as Crooks was, on a roof, on Saturday.

My biggest weakness was my tendency to “slap the trigger.” Good shots require a slow, smooth pressing of the trigger to the rear, allowing the shot to break naturally, so that it almost surprises the shooter when it goes off. But inexperienced or nervous shooters can jerk the trigger, hauling it back too quickly. The natural curve of the finger and the movement of the hand will then cause the weapon’s barrel to shift even slightly. And the tiniest budge of the barrel when the shot breaks can result in an exaggerated movement of the bullet at the point of impact. For example, someone nervous about attempting to assassinate one of the most powerful people in the world might cause the shot to break wide laterally, clipping the ear instead of hitting the center of the head, where they were aiming.

The AR-pattern rifle’s simplicity, stability, and versatility empowered me, a trained but infrequent shooter, to be solidly and reliably accurate under good conditions, even from more than 100 or 200 yards away. I see no reason why it wouldn’t provide the same advantages to a young enthusiast who shot often enough to try out for a rifle team.

That distance is also an important factor in why Crooks, despite not being a particularly expert marksman, was able to come so close. When I was in Iraq, there were massive, sloping concrete aircraft hangars on my base. I remember seeing some Americans use them for exercise, running up the steep slope and down the other side. But I also remember the first sergeant cautioning me against doing so. Most folks think Iraq is a desert, and while al-Anbar province certainly is, the river valleys where most people live are anything but, and I was curious to see, from that high vantage point, the long, waving grasses with shepherds tending their flocks. When I asked the first sergeant why he thought that wasn’t a good idea, he shrugged. “It’s only a few hundred yards or so to the perimeter,” he said. “Someone can make that shot.”

Indeed, they could (assuming he’d reckoned the distance right), depending on the weapon and their skill in employing it. Depending on barrel length, AR-pattern weapons can be accurate for hundreds of yards, well beyond the 150 or so yards between Crooks and his target. Despite my aforementioned lack of experience in combat arms, I was routinely able to make good shots at 200 yards.

I know this. Every gun blogger on the internet knows this. The Secret Service absolutely knows this. In fact, the president has directed an independent review of the incident, specifically asking the head of the Secret Service to review security measures for the Republican National Convention, which began Monday. Reporting indicates that Crooks was considered to be outside the security perimeter of Saturday’s Trump rally. Why that perimeter was made tight enough to easily accommodate a shot of that length is mystifying, and later investigation may yield answers.

But I am less surprised that Crooks came as close to changing the course of history than many who are publicly scratching their heads in the press. He was taking a relatively easy shot from a stable platform at a good distance. More important, he was using one of the most accurate and easiest-to-use long guns I’ve ever fired. My M4 turned a nerdy intelligence officer into a competent marksman, good enough to be trusted with it in the company of the direct-action operators I supported in Iraq. It gives anyone who can access it the same leg up. It surely bestowed those advantages on Thomas Matthew Crooks.