For Mitt Romney, Tennessee is a State to Watch
Ohio is getting all the attention as the Super Tuesday state to watch. But come next week, Tennessee could be a very intriguing undercard – and the state that seals Mitt Romney’s good fortune.
If Romney can win in the South, it would demonstrate that he would finally be able to win over the more conservative, evangelical elements of the party – on the heels of a Michigan win. Romney has won key battleground states in every other region: the Southwest (Nevada/Arizona), the Northeast (New Hampshire) and the Midwest (Michigan). He won Florida, but it was thanks to strong tallies in decidedly un-Southern parts of the state like Miami and Tampa.
History suggests Romney has a fighting chance. Tennessee, despite its conservative electorate, has a propensity to support establishment, business-friendly types. Look at Gov. Bill Haslam, a centrist businessman, who easily beat two deeply conservative challengers in the 2010 primary. Or Sen. Bob Corker, who did the same in 2006. (The list goes on: Lamar Alexander, Bill Frist, Fred Thompson, Howard Baker.)
And while the state backed Mike Huckabee in 2008 with 34 percent of the vote, it was also one of John McCain’s strongest Southern states. McCain won 31 percent there, and Romney himself ran respectably, with 24 percent. Combine the McCain and Romney vote, and there’s a healthy majority to be had, without having to pander to the base.
If Romney wins Ohio, it will allow him to claim an important victory in a critical general election battleground. But if he wins Tennessee, he can make the argument that the primary race is all but over.
—Josh Kraushaar, Hotline Executive Editor
NATIONAL JOURNAL’S PRIMARY REPORT
Romney Wins in Wyoming NEW!
[National Journal, 3/1/12] Romney on Wednesday won a nonbinding caucus vote that was held in Wyoming over the past two weeks, the Associated Press reported. Romney won 39 percent of the 2,108 caucus goers; Santorum came in second with 32 percent; Paul had 21 percent and Gingrich 8 percent.
Santorum Raises $9 Million in February NEW!
[Associated Press, 3/1/12] Santorum’s presidential campaign raised $9 million in February, giving a big boost to the candidate.
Romney Looks to Ohio for a Knockout Punch
[National Journal, 2/29/12] Victory in delegate-rich Ohio and a respectable showing in the other states voting on Super Tuesday would help the former Massachusetts governor regain the aura of inevitability he’s lost over the past month. Ohio also offers Santorum the chance for a rebound.
Can Santorum Broaden His Base?
[National Journal, 2/29/12] If Santorum hopes to do well in the next 10 contests on Super Tuesday across a wide swath of geographically and ideologically diverse states on March 6, he must find a way to address the same vulnerabilities that have plagued him in the race all along. This strategy shift will test his shoestring campaign.
Washington State Republicans Divided Over Nomination
[Seattle Times, 2/29/12] As the Republican Party's most-protracted primary season in years rolls into Washington this weekend, GOP voters are just as divided as they are everywhere else.
The Real Reason Romney is Winning
[National Journal, 2/29/12] National Journal’s Michael Hirsh writes that the real reason so many Republican primary voters are holding their noses, gritting their teeth and still voting for Romney is there's simply no other qualified candidate who is running.
Santorum’s Google Problem Subsides NEW!
[Wall Street Journal, 2/29/12] For years, the first link on Google for "Santorum" was a site by Dan Savage, a popular sex columnist, and an unusual definition. But following a surge of interest in Santorum’s campaign, and some possible tweaks by Google, as of late Tuesday, Savage’s webpage had fallen down the list to 10th place.
Gingrich Says He’ll ‘Decisively’ Win in Georgia
[National Journal, 2/29/12] Gingrich has called his home state of Georgia “vital” to the continuation of campaign, and on Wednesday he predicted he would win the state “decisively” on Super Tuesday. Polls show him with a comfortable lead over rivals Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum, though his margin has dwindled in recent weeks.
Romney’s New Tax Proposals Would Add $3.4 Trillion to Deficit
[The Hill, 2/29/12] According to a new nonpartisan analysis, Romney’s new bolder tax plan would tack an extra $3.4 trillion on to budget deficits over the next 10 years, compared to a world where the Bush-era tax rates were extended.
Perry Has More Success in Ariz., Mich., Than New Hampshire
[Houston Chronicle, 2/29/12] Texas Gov. Rick Perry has had more success after dropping out of an election than he did when he was running: Perry received 144 more votes in Michigan and 105 more votes in Arizona than he received in New Hampshire.
Despite Romney Wins, Both Sides Eye Jeb Bush
[Politico, 2/29/12] Romney’s triumph in Michigan hasn’t quelled the desire among some Republicans to trade up. Officials on both sides of the aisle are keeping their eyes on former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who they see as more capable of connecting with middle-class and Latino voters than Romney.
Romney Plays Dumb With Contraceptive Bill Flip-Flop NEW!
[National Journal, 3/1/12] The Atlantic’s Alexander Abad-Santos writes that Senator Roy Blunt's bill to exempt employers from providing contraceptives serves no other purpose other than giving politicians on both sides something to point to when November's election rolls around. But Romney was "too confused" to take advantage of the opportunity: After saying yesterday that he did not support the bill, his campaign is now saying that he misunderstood the question and actually does back the legislation.
Ron Paul Threatens to Disrupt Wash. GOP Caucus
[Associated Press, 2/29/12] Ron Paul's presidential campaign threatened to fight the seating of some Washington delegates to the Republican National Convention on Wednesday, saying there is a lack of transparency in how party officials from the state's largest county are chosen.
Washington State is a Primary Player for the First Time in Years
[National Review, 3/1/12] The GOP candidates are all in Washington State this week ahead of the state’s caucuses on Saturday, showing that for the first time in years, the Evergreen State is relevant. Chairman of the state GOP Kirby Wilbur called the contest a “public opinion poll” taken before Super Tuesday.
On Immigration and Autos, GOP Candidates Collide With GOP Voters
[National Journal, 2/29/12] Ronald Brownstein writes that over a third of voters in Arizona's GOP primary believe the U.S. should offer a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants, a position counter to both Santorum and Romney's views on the issue. And in Michigan, 44 percent of GOP primary voters supported the auto bailout, which Romney infamously derided.
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