More of Florida a potential target of developing tropical system, hurricane center says
The National Hurricane Center continues to track a system with a medium chance of developing into the season’s next tropical depression or storm, and now puts most of Florida within the potential path.
As of the NHC’s 8 p.m. tropical outlook Sunday, the area of disturbed weather was located over the central tropical Atlantic, but is expected to interact with an approaching tropical wave in the next few days.
“Environmental conditions are forecast to become conducive for some development in a day or two, and a tropical depression could form around midweek while the system is near or over the northern Leeward Islands, Greater Antilles or southwestern Atlantic Ocean,” forecasters said.
The NHC gives it a 40% chance to develop in the next seven days.
If it were to spin up to named storm status, it could become Tropical Storm Debby.
The NHC’s projected area of concern for the system includes a wide swath ranging across the northern Caribbean islands, but curling up to the Florida peninsula at the end of the week.
Just the edge of South Florida had been within the NHC’s weeklong bubble of concern on Saturday with some forecast models showing the system could veer east of the state and head north up the Atlantic, while others showed it potentially hitting the Florida Keys and potentially going up Florida’s west coast in the Gulf of Mexico.
Forecasters have a difficult time predicting paths of systems that have yet to develop circulation.
The Atlantic has not had a named system since what was Hurricane Beryl made its way through the Caribbean, Mexico and Texas. The NHC’s last advisory for that storm came on July 10.
A heavy presence of Saharan dust spread west from the African coast in the weeks since, stunting tropical development.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast an above average year in the Atlantic with 17 to 25 named storms, of which eight to 13 are expected to become hurricanes, and four to seven of those becoming major hurricanes.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30.
