Most NH politicos think Biden will reject calls to withdraw

Jul. 1—CONCORD — Many political analysts across the spectrum in New Hampshire believe that despite a shaky debate performance last week, President Joe Biden will resist calls from some media outlets and rank-and-file Democrats to step aside.

Some argued that Biden and leaders in the Democratic National Committee did their supporters a disservice by boycotting the first-in-the-nation primary in New Hampshire and executing a no-sweat coronation of the president's nomination to a second term.

"What if Joe Biden would have had to face a debate in New Hampshire last December against a legitimate primary challenger? Maybe it would not have changed the outcome, but I think a lot of Democrats would be feeling better than they are now," said Mike Dennehy, a Republican strategist who played a leading role in John McCain's two presidential primary victories.

"You reap what you sow, and the DNC has no one to blame but itself for the rough shape it is in right now."

Dante Scala, professor of politics at the University of New Hampshire in Durham, said he's not so sure it would have made a difference.

After all, many leading Democrats passed on the chance to take on Biden a year ago where there was a case to be made, especially from the ultra-progressive wing of the party, Scala said.

"Keep in mind. Donald Trump didn't exactly run the quintessential New Hampshire grassroots campaign. There were no debates, no town meetings where he took questions from voters, no real engagement with the press corps while campaigning here," Scala said.

Wayne Lesperance, president of New England College, said he felt at the time the DNC might have set Biden up for failure.

"It's not self-serving at all to say New Hampshire puts candidates to the test and clearly President Biden looked like someone who was not the slightest bit battle ready," Lesperance said.

A poll conducted since Thursday's debate by Saint Anselm College Survey Center at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics contained the grim news for partisan Democrats — Biden has lost a 10-point lead he had over former President Trump and now trails by 2%, 44% to 42%, though that's within the poll's 2.3% margin of error.

Executive Director Neil Levesque said Biden's biggest problem is with liberals in his party, as only 67% are in support while 89% of Republicans strongly back Trump.

"This is now a competitive race, and coming off these numbers what I wonder about is we will learn there are other states that appeared safer for the president that are now up for grabs," Levesque said.

Among the 1,746 who took the poll last Friday and Saturday, 81% said they saw the debate.

Asked who won it, 54% picked Trump, 6% picked Biden, 39% said neither and the other 1% was unsure.

Former Republican Party Executive Director Fergus Cullen, a Trump critic, urged New Hampshire Democrats to lead a public campaign to get Biden to withdraw.

"Establishment Democrats who are circling the wagons around President Biden today don't just have a blind spot. They are asking the rest of us to wear a blindfold and not see what we all just saw — a feeble and fading man who is not only incapable of making the case against Trump but probably isn't capable of doing his job now, let alone for four more years," Cullen said.

'A great job'

Former Democratic Party Chairman Kathy Sullivan of Manchester, who helped orchestrate the massive write-in campaign win for Biden last January, said this is no time to give up on the president.

"I say to any Democrat who they've talked to, 'Suck it up, buttercup,'" Sullivan said last week.

"Joe Biden's our president. He's done a great job. And it's time to get with the program and roll up your sleeves like all of us here are doing and fight like heck to get Joe Biden reelected in November."

Arnie Arnesen, a liberal activist and former nominee for governor and Congress, agrees Democrats must rally behind Biden, but not for the same reason.

In a commentary for "Raw Story" titled, "Give me the stuttering old man over the racist, sexist, lying fascist," Arnesen said sticking with Biden was about standing up for issues from abortion rights and climate change to gun control, public education and child care.

"Everyone thinks an open convention is a switch, we just turn it on and out comes the perfect candidate. Everyone will come with their own sphere of influence, it will be more divisive and chaotic than it is now," Arnesen said.

Peter Burling of Cornish, a former Democratic National Committeeman and state senator, said he has concluded that it's time for the party to pick a new generational leader.

"I'm a good Democrat and feel like a traitor to say this but my own view is, the interests of the country would be best served by an open Democratic convention in which we find the one with the gumption, intelligence, determination and plan to run for the presidency and take this country forward," Burling said.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom's decision to headline a fundraiser for the N.H. House Democratic Victory Campaign Committee July 8 in Manchester raised speculation about his potential interest in becoming a White House alternative. Since the debate, Newsom has reaffirmed his support for Biden.

State party leaders insisted Newsom confirmed the trip prior to Thursday's debate.

Lesperance said he's stunned by any speculation that, should Biden step aside, party leaders would pick someone other than Vice President Kamala Harris.

"She may not be your favorite candidate, but this is someone who has run for president before, is a national figure who's been fully vetted," Lesperance said.

"I can't believe the party power brokers who throw under the bus and reject someone who if elected would be the first woman and only the second person of color in American history" to be president.

klandrigan@unionleader.com