Tropical Depression 4 expected to strengthen before Florida landfall. See expected impacts
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Tropical Depression Four is expected to bring tropical storm conditions and heavy rain to the Florida Peninsula, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
Tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued for portions of Florida ahead of a possible landfall as Tropical Storm Debby along Florida's West Coast over the weekend.
➤ Spaghetti models for Potential Tropical Cyclone Four
What was originally known as Invest 97L currently is located over eastern Cuba, about 260 miles southeast of Key West, according to the 11 p.m. Aug. 2 advisory.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis Thursday declared a state of emergency for 54 of Florida's 67 counties ahead of the storm.
"Keep in mind the tropical cyclone will be strengthening as it moves north, so the farther north it gets before landfall, the better of a shot that it has to attain hurricane status," said the National Weather Service Tallahassee.
If sustained winds reach 39 mph, it would become Tropical Storm Debby, the fourth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
Where is Tropical Depression Four?
Location: 75 miles south of Caibarien, Cuba; 260 miles south-southeast of Key Wes
Maximum sustained winds: 30 mph
Movement: west-northwest at 17 mph
Next advisory: 5 a.m. Aug. 3
Tropical Depression Four expected to strengthen into Tropical Storm Debby
At 11 p.m., the disturbance was centered near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 79.7 West.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph. A turn toward the northwest is forecast on Saturday, followed by a slower motion toward the north and then the northeast on Sunday and Monday.
On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move across Cuba overnight and on Saturday, and then move generally northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico Saturday and Sunday, potentially reaching the Florida Gulf coast late Sunday or Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Saturday and continue strengthening over the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the weekend.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb.
Formation chance through 48 hours: high, 90 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days: high, 90 percent.
Spaghetti models: Latest forecasts on where Tropical Depression Four could make Florida landfall
Special note about spaghetti models: Spaghetti model illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
Tropical storm watches and warnings issued for portions of Florida
A tropical storm warning is in effect for:
The Dry Tortugas
West coast of the Florida peninsula from East Cape Sable to Boca Grande
A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for:
The Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge
The southern coast of the Florida peninsula east of East Cape Sable to the Card Sound Bridge
The west coast of the Florida peninsula north of Boca Grande to the mouth of the Suwannee River
A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
A storm surge watch is in effect for:
Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor
A storm surge watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
Potential impacts from Tropical Depression Four
WINDS: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area late Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida peninsula by Saturday or Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida west coast Saturday night and Sunday.
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide.
Bonita Beach to Suwanee River: 2-4 feet
Tampa Bay: 2-4 feet
Charlotte Harbor: 2-4 feet
Card Sound Bridge to Bonita Beach: 1-3 feet
Dry Tortugas: 1-2 feet
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Four is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to 12 inches, across portions of Florida and along the Southeast U.S. coast this weekend through Wednesday. This rainfall may result in areas of locally considerable flash and urban flooding, with isolated river flooding possible.
TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible across the Florida Keys and the western Florida peninsula Saturday night through Sunday morning.
WINDS: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area late Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida peninsula by Saturday or Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida west coast Saturday night and Sunday.
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide.
Bonita Beach to Suwanee River: 2-4 feet
Tampa Bay: 2-4 feet
Charlotte Harbor: 2-4 feet
Card Sound Bridge to Bonita Beach: 1-3 feet
Dry Tortugas: 1-2 feet
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Four is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to 12 inches, across portions of Florida and along the Southeast U.S. coast this weekend through Wednesday. This rainfall may result in areas of locally considerable flash and urban flooding, with isolated river flooding possible.
TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible across the Florida Keys and the western Florida peninsula Saturday night through Sunday morning.
Key messages on what Florida can expect from tropical cyclone
Heavy rainfall may result in flash and urban flooding across portions of Florida and the Southeast this weekend through Wednesday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center. Isolated river flooding will also be possible.
Tropical storm conditions are expected Saturday night within the warning area in southwest Florida from East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach where a tropical storm warning has been issued. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Florida Keys on Saturday and along the Florida west coast north of Bonita Beach to Aripeka Saturday night and Sunday where a tropical storm watch is in effect.
Coastal flooding is possible along portions of the west coast of Florida over the weekend.
Residents elsewhere in Florida should monitor the progress of this system.
Florida Gov. DeSantis issues state of emergency for 54 counties
Florida is monitoring Invest 97L in the Atlantic, which is expected to strengthen and potentially make landfall as early as this weekend. It will be slow-moving and bring lots of rain that could cause significant flooding.
I encourage all residents to prepare for the storm and…— Ron DeSantis (@GovRonDeSantis) August 1, 2024
Gov. Ron DeSantis issued a state of emergency Thursday in preparation for the potential landfall of a storm that could become the first "significant threat" to the state.
In a post on X Thursday afternoon, DeSantis said "Florida is monitoring Invest 97L in the Atlantic, which is expected to strengthen and potentially make landfall as early as this weekend. It will be slow-moving and bring lots of rain that could cause significant flooding. I encourage all residents to prepare for the storm and follow all guidance issued by @FLSERT and local emergency management officials."
Residents in Southeast advised to monitor Tropical Depression Four
Residents from Georgia to North Carolina were advised to monitor the progress of this system.
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared. That advice is particularly important for what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
National Hurricane Center map: What are forecasters watching now?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
Excessive rainfall forecast
What's next?
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This article originally appeared on The Ledger: Tropics update: Tropical Depression 4. Florida watches, warnings
