National Hurricane Center keeping eye on disturbance nearing Caribbean, 3 tropical waves
A tropical wave is moving west toward the Caribbean, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
Once the wave reaches the western Caribbean later this week, conditions "appear conducive" for slow development.
"We will be on the lookout for another weak system that could try to develop in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico around the start of July," AccuWeather Lead Tropical Meteorologist Alex DaSilva said.
"But, just like the system from Saturday to Sunday, it will not have much time to develop before being pushed into northeastern Mexico."
The next storm of the season will be Beryl.
When is tropical activity expected to increase?
"After the flurry of tropical activity dies down and the mid-summer lull occurs, AccuWeather meteorologists forecast that the Atlantic will become a hotbed later in the summer and into the fall with a bumper crop of tropical storms and hurricanes."
Helping inhibit tropical development is Saharan dust moving off the coast of Africa, which could reach Florida by the weekend.
Every forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is predicting an above-normal season. The average number of named storms in a season is 14. AccuWeather forecasters have gone as far as saying 2024 could break the record of 30 named storms.
The presence of La Niña is a big factor in why every forecasting agency has been predicting a very active Atlantic hurricane season this year.
It doesn't help we're seeing record warm water temperatures in the Atlantic, which also provide fuel for tropical cyclones.
NOAA said May 2024 was the 14th consecutive month of record-warm global ocean temperatures.
Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 8 a.m. June 25:
What is out there and how likely are they to strengthen?
Tropical wave heading toward Caribbean-Gulf of Mexico: A westward-moving tropical wave located over the southeastern Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for slow development once the wave reaches the western Caribbean late this week.
Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days: low, 20 percent.
The National Hurricane Center also is keeping an eye on three other tropical waves currently not indicated on its tropical outlook map, including two in the Caribbean Sea.
First wave: A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is moving west at 11 mph.
Second wave: A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean is moving west at 11 mph. This wave is a combination of two waves.
Third wave: A tropical wave in the central Caribbean is also moving west at 11 mph.
Who is likely to be impacted?
It's too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to Florida or the U.S. from the tropical waves.
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared. That advice is particularly important for what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
National Hurricane Center map: What are forecasters watching now?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
Excessive rainfall forecast
What's next?
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This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: NHC tropical outlook, track storms, radar
