National Hurricane Center tracking wave, says tropical depression likely this week
As far as Florida is concerned, the weather in the tropics is fairly calm right now. But a tropical wave currently dumping torrential rain over central and parts of the northern Caribbean has an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression later this week, forecasters said.
The wave is approaching the same region that produced hurricanes Rafael, Milton and Helene, but an approaching front and increasing wind shear may prevent it from becoming a problem.
However, that zone is still capable of producing more tropical cyclones and AccuWeather predicts that the zone of wind shear north of the Caribbean that has been preventing any new storms from moving north since Milton could dissolve next week and leave us open for more activity.
Meanwhile, remnants of Rafael may meander around the Gulf of Mexico and get swept up into a cold front moving over the U.S. Wednesday and Thursday, bringing heavy rain to Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, Tenneessee, and the tip of the Florida Panhandle. The northern Gulf Coast, including Florida, can expect high surf and dangerous rip currents.
"The new cool front will also be more progressive than the one that unloaded 8 inches of rain on Saturday and the storm that unloaded a foot of rain on South Carolina and Georgia last week. Although downpours can produce minor flooding, persistent downpours aren’t expected and widespread flooding is not anticipated," AccuWeather meteorologist Grady Gilman said.
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The next named storm of the Atlantic Hurricane season would be Sara.
Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 7 a.m. EST Tuesday, Nov. 12:
National Hurricane Center map: What else is out there and how likely are they to strengthen?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Central and Western Caribbean Sea: A tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week as the system moves slowly westward into the western Caribbean Sea.
Afterward, the disturbance is expected to meander over the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend and begin moving slowly, generally northwestward, by early next week. Interests across the western Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system.
Formation chance through 48 hours: medium, 40 percent.
Formation chance through seven days: high, 80 percent.
What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?
The hatched areas on a tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop with yellow being low, orange medium and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until a there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
"If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When does hurricane season end?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
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Excessive rainfall forecast
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This article originally appeared on Sarasota Herald-Tribune: Tropical depression likely to form in Caribbean by weekend, NHC says
