NC has been a swing state in 2024 election. Is that still the case with Biden’s exit?

President Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris and their surrogates have been a frequent presence in North Carolina during the 2024 campaign season.

North Carolina is considered a battleground state, not because it typically elects presidential candidates from both major parties, but because Republicans typically win the state’s electoral votes narrowly — in recent years by less than 4%.

Biden and his campaign staff made clear at the beginning of his 2024 campaign that they want to flip North Carolina blue, something a presidential candidate hasn’t done since 2008.

So with Biden pulling out of the race, and with Harris picking up much of the support she needs to become the Democratic nominee, what becomes of the near-weekly visits from high-profile Democrats and the party’s focus on the Tar Heel State?

Anderson Clayton, chair of the North Carolina Democratic Party, told McClatchy that North Carolina remains a battleground state, and therefore a priority.

Republican former President Donald Trump, meanwhile, will hold a rally in Charlotte on Wednesday. He announced the campaign event on Friday, before Biden dropped out.

Biden, Harris — and Cooper?

On Sunday afternoon, Biden announced on social media he would end his reelection campaign. For weeks, a chorus of Democrats had grown louder calling for him to walk away and leave the race to his running mate, Harris, after he gave a poor debate performance that left voters worried about his mental capabilities.

After making his announcement, Biden immediately backed Harris as president. North Carolina’s Gov. Roy Cooper and Democratic Reps. Deborah Ross, Kathy Manning and Jeff Jackson followed, as did all 168 of North Carolina’s delegates to the Democratic National Convention.

Clayton told McClatchy that Harris loves coming to the state and she doesn’t see that ending.

“To be honest with you, I think it will be tenfold, especially if we end up seeing a great Southern Democratic vice presidential candidate,” Clayton said.

She was teasing the possibility of Cooper being selected by Harris as her vice presidential running mate. Cooper is one of several people rumored to be under consideration for vice president. Harris and Cooper have a lengthy history together that stretches back to their time as attorneys general of California and North Carolina.

Asher Hildebrand, a political science professor at Duke University, said he considers Cooper one of the top contenders. Hildebrand, who was chief of staff to Rep. David Price, a Democrat, and served as director of policy and research for former President Barack Obama’s 2012 campaign in North Carolina, added that he’s not basing that off any inside information.

Hildebrand said each of the potential running mates, which include Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona, Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania and Gov. Andy Beshear of Kentucky, brings different things to the table.

For Cooper, that includes a track record of winning North Carolina, despite Republican strongholds in the state’s two legislative chambers; and his relationship with Harris that gives her trust and confidence in him, which Hildebrand said could be important given the rushed and unprecedented nature of the race Harris finds herself in.

“I wouldn’t underestimate that as an important factor,” Hildebrand said.

Will strategy to win NC change?

As for the state itself, Chris Cooper, a political science professor at Western Carolina University, said he doesn’t think the operation of the Biden-Harris campaign will change much without Biden.

“If it’s Harris, the strategy has to change more for Trump than it does for the Democrats,” Cooper said. “If it’s another candidate, I think things get really complicated really fast. It’s very possible that a different candidate with a different campaign apparatus might want a very different strategy.”

So far, no other names have emerged as serious potential challengers.

Cooper added that the Biden-Harris campaign put a lot of resources into North Carolina, including at least 15 field offices.

Hildebrand said Biden dropping out could bolster North Carolina’s standing as a competitive state.

“Biden was persistently behind in the polls here,” Hildebrand said.

Trump has led every poll in North Carolina since mid-February.

“We’ve known all along, that to win reelection, first things first, he needs to win in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin,” Hildebrand said. “And then beyond that, North Carolina is that next tier of states, along with Georgia, Nevada, Arizona and others that sort of would be nice to win and are competitive.”

Hildebrand said Biden advertised and invested a lot into North Carolina, so much so that a frequent joke began that the governor should open a field office at the airport because of how regularly he’s there to greet Biden surrogates.

“So it’s already been a target,” Hildebrand said. “And just on the sort of face of it, insofar as Biden was becoming a liability for the Democratic ticket, now North Carolina is back in play.”

Under the Dome

Get the latest news about North Carolina politics from The News & Observer's award-winning team. Get the free digest sent to your inbox by signing up here.