Northeast Florida braces for Hurricane Milton, with biggest impact in St. Johns County

In a hurry? Here's what's happening with Hurricane Milton in less than a minute.

Hurricane and tropical storm warnings covered Northeast Florida Tuesday as communities tried to prepare for winds and flooding from the edge of Hurricane Milton’s expected collision with the state Thursday.

Three to five feet of storm surge was expected along beaches in the Jacksonville area and Southeast Georgia with two to four feet of surge pushing into the St. Johns River late Wednesday and Thursday. The National Weather Service reported "increasing confidence" that the surge could be potentially deadly.

Five to 12 inches of rain was expected over most of the region, the biggest totals coming to St. Johns and Putnam counties and points south.

Tropical storm-force winds around Jacksonville were expected to begin Wednesday morning, said the Weather Service, which reported “frequent hurricane force gusts” were possible at the coastline and along the river. Isolated tornadoes could also develop Wednesday, the Weather Service said. A Weather Service map projected maximum winds of 39-57 mph possible in Jacksonville and 58-73 mph in St. Johns County.

A hurricane warning was in effect in St. Johns County while Duval, Clay and Nassau counties had tropical storm warnings. A tropical storm watch was in effect in Baker County.

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Milton loses strength

The warnings persisted even though Hurricane Milton continued to weaken Tuesday morning. The change in the strength was expected, but no less welcomed after the storm's rapid intensification to a Category 5 hurricane with 180-mph winds Monday.

Hurricane and storm surge warnings have now been issued for portions of Florida's East Coast.

Early Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center said Milton is completing a cycle of eyewall replacement, which will decrease sustained winds but allow the hurricane to get bigger. NHC forecasters said Milton could double in size by the time it makes landfall Wednesday night.

➤ Spaghetti models for Hurricane Milton

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Winds decreased to 145 mph, which still makes Milton a Category 4 hurricane, according to the Hurricane Center's latest advisory. A Category 5 hurricane has sustained winds of at least 157 mph.

"Milton poses an extremely serious threat to Florida," the National Hurricane Center said.

Devastating impacts are forecast for Florida, including life-threatening storm surge, flooding rain and damaging winds.

A state of emergency has been declared in Florida for 51 out of 67 counties ahead of Milton. The hurricane is expected to make landfall Wednesday night. Several counties have announced schools will be closed.

Live updates: Get the latest on Hurricane Milton as it approaches Florida

"The words 'Category 5 hurricane' alone should let you know that the threat from Milton to Florida is truly exceptional, particularly as the NHC forecast track continues to target west-central Florida," said Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist with WeatherTiger. Truchelut is a Florida meteorologist who works with the USA TODAY Network.

"This region between Venice and Crystal River does not have the living memory of a direct impact from a major hurricane."

Hurricane Milton may bring worst surge in a century to Tampa, Southwest Florida

What impacts are expected in Florida from Hurricane Milton?

Impacts expected include a "devastating storm surge to major flooding from rain, damaging wind gusts, pounding surf and tornadoes," according to AccuWeather.

Approximately 90% of all deaths in hurricanes worldwide are caused by drowning in either the storm surges or flooding caused by intense rainfall, according to the Florida Climate Center.

"Milton has the potential to become one of Florida's most damaging and costly hurricanes, bringing a variety of life-threatening dangers," said AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter.

"This includes an extreme storm surge of 10-15 feet along and near the coast, including in the Tampa Bay area, destructive winds and major flooding to one of the most densely populated areas of Florida, the I-4 corridor from Tampa to Orlando.

"Milton may be a historic, once-in-a-lifetime storm for Floridians," said Porter.

"Tampa Bay and vicinity is facing a surge threat well beyond Helene’s carnage, itself the worst since 1921," Truchelut said. "Peak surge values of 5-8 feet were generally observed in the Bay Area in Helene, and the initial NHC reasonable worst-case values from Milton are 8-12 feet from Anclote Key to roughly Englewood."

Where will Hurricane Milton make landfall? North or south of Tampa makes huge difference on storm surge threat

Projected eye path for Hurricane Milton Oct. 7, 2024.
Projected eye path for Hurricane Milton Oct. 7, 2024.

AccuWeather is predicting landfall as a Category 3 storm around Longboat Key, north of Sarasota, around 8 p.m. Wednesday, said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva in a telephone interview early Monday afternoon.

What is storm surge and why is it so dangerous?

Even if Milton makes landfall as a Category 3 storm, don't expect the storm surge impact to lessen, DaSilva said.

"As a Category 5 now, it's generating a lot of energy. It'll still have the surge power of a Category 4 storm, even if it makes landfall as a Category 3 storm. We saw this with Katrina, and it's one thing we're concerned about."

At this time, the worst storm surge is expected in the Bradenton and Sarasota, area, where it could reach a historic 15-20 feet, according to AccuWeather.

A storm surge of 10 to 15 feet is expected between Tampa and Fort Myers. If landfall is just north of Sarasota, storm surge could be 15 to 20 feet, DaSilva said.

"A landfall north of Tampa will push water into Tampa Bay in a worst-case scenario."

If landfall is south of Tampa, storm surge in Tampa Bay could be dangerous but not as extreme, AccuWeather said.

Adding to the area's problems: devastation from the storm surge brought by Hurricane Helene.

"When this storm (Milton) comes, there will be less natural protection," DaSilva said.

Florida's East Coast also could see storm surge from Milton. "Three to 6 feet is likely over a much larger stretch of the west coast from around Naples north to Cedar Key and a portion of the Atlantic coast from near Cape Canaveral to Saint Augustine," AccuWeather said.

Hurricane Milton: What you need to know

  • Location: 545 miles southwest of Tampa

  • Maximum sustained winds: 145 mph

  • Movement: east-northeast at 12 mph

  • Pressure: 929 mb

At 8 a.m. EDT, the center of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 88.8 West.

Milton is moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph. A turn toward the east-northeast and northeast is expected today and Wednesday.

On the forecast track, the center of Milton is forecast to move just north of the Yucatan Peninsula today and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. The hurricane is forecast to make landfall in Florida Wednesday night.

➤ WeatherTiger: WeatherTiger: Got an evacuation order? 'Make a choice to save your life'

➤ Spaghetti models for Hurricane Milton

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph, with higher gusts. Milton is an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

While fluctuations in intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles.

"An increase in vertical wind shear will likely cause some weakening before the hurricane reaches Florida, but there is high confidence that Milton will remain an extremely dangerous hurricane when it reaches the state," the National Hurricane Center said.

"Milton is still a relatively compact hurricane, but the wind field is expected to continue to grow in size as it approaches Florida. In fact, the official forecast shows the hurricane and tropical-storm-force winds roughly doubling in size by the time it makes landfall. Therefore, damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone."

Watches, warnings issued across Florida ahead of Hurricane Milton

Here are the latest watches and warnings issued for areas threated by Hurricane Milton:

Hurricane warning:

  • Celestun to Rio Lagartos

  • Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay

  • Florida east coast from the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach

Hurricane warning: A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

Hurricane watch:

  • Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche

  • Dry Tortugas

  • Lake Okeechobee

  • Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach

Hurricane watch: A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

What is storm surge? Graphics explain the deadly weather event

Storm surge warning:

  • West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay

  • East coast of Florida from the Volusia/Brevard County Line northward to the mouth of the St. Mary's River, including the St. Johns River.

Storm surge warning: A storm surge warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

Storm surge watch:

  • Sebastian Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

  • Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Edisto Beach

Storm surge watch: A storm surge watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

Tropical storm warning:

  • Rio Lagartos to Cancun

  • All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay

  • Lake Okeechobee

  • Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach

  • Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass

  • Florida east coast south of the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line to Flamingo

  • Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Mary's River

Tropical storm warning: A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Tropical storm watch:

  • Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina

Tropical storm watch: An announcement that sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph are possible within the specified area within 48 hours in association with a tropical, subtropical, or post-tropical cyclone.

Spaghetti models for Hurricane Milton

Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts. 

Track Hurricane Milton

Excessive rainfall forecast

Key messages from the National Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Hurricane Milton

  1. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a life-threatening storm surge with destructive waves are expected across portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula today.

  2. Milton is expected to grow in size and remain an extremely dangerous hurricane when it approaches the west coast of Florida on Wednesday. A large area of destructive storm surge will occur along parts of the west coast of Florida. This is an extremely life-threatening situation and residents in those areas should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate immediately if told to do so.

  3. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses the Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula. Preparations to protect life and property in the warning areas should be complete by tonight.

  4. Areas of heavy rainfall will continue to impact portions of Florida well ahead of Milton through early Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of life-threatening flash, urban and aerial flooding along with moderate to major river flooding. Flooding will be exacerbated in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall threat.

Hurricane tracker: See the latest on projected path for Hurricane Milton

Current forecast: Where is Hurricane Milton going and how strong could it get?

  • As of 5 a.m. EDT: 155 mph

  • 12 hours: 160 mph

  • 24 hours: 155 mph

  • 36 hours: 145 mph (possibly close to time of landfall Wednesday night)

  • 48 hours: 125 mph (near the Atlantic coast)

  • 60 hours: 80 mph

  • 72 hours: 70 mph

  • 96 hours: 50 mph

  • 120 hours: 40 mph

What impact could Hurricane Milton have and what areas could be affected?

Storm surge: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:

  • Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft

  • Tampa Bay...10-15 ft

  • Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...6-10 ft

  • Charlotte Harbor...6-10 ft

  • Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft

  • Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft

  • Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft

  • Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft

  • Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft

  • Sebastian Inlet, FL to Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL...2-4 ft

  • Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft

  • Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft

  • St. Johns River...2-4 ft

Wind: Hurricane conditions are occurring in the warning area in Mexico today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch areas in Mexico today, and tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in tropical storm warning area today.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area on the west coast of Florida as early as Wednesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions beginning early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions could begin along the east coast of Florida in the watch areas on Wednesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible beginning Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning areas in Florida beginning early Wednesday and will spread northward through the day. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the east coast of Florida by Wednesday night and along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Thursday.

Rainfall: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 12 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of life-threatening flash, urban and aerial flooding along with moderate to major river flooding. Milton will also produce rainfall totals 2 to 4 inches across the Florida Keys through Thursday.

Excessive rainfall forecast

Surf: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Tornadoes: A few tornadoes are possible over central and southern Florida beginning late tonight and continuing through Wednesday night.

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(This story was updated to add new information and to add video.)

This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: Hurricane warning in St. Johns County, lesser warning in Jacksonville