Peak global population is approaching, thanks to lower fertility rates: Graphics explain

Sara Chernikoff, USA TODAY
Updated ·2 min read
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A new report from United Nations shows the estimated global population will peak at 10.3 billion people in the mid-2080s - a significantly earlier timeline than what was predicted a few years prior.

Although the population is continuing to grow, the report found that such growth is slowing down. One indicator of this slow down is the drop in global fertility rates.

Fertility rate is the number of live births per woman at reproductive age. Globally, the rate is 2.25 births per woman - that is one child per woman less than three decades prior in 1990.

Here's how fertility rates compare across the globe:

Global fertility rate on a decline

Over half of all countries have a fertility rate less than 2.1 births per woman. That is below the replacement rate, or the number of children each woman needs to birth in order to prevent a decline in the global population.

Across the globe, one in four people lives in a country whose population has already peaked.

The total population has already peaked in 63 countries/ regions as of this year. Those countries include Germany, China and Russia, according to the report.

Which continents have the highest fertility rates?

Since the 1950's, Africa has had the highest fertility rate of any continent. As of 2023, the average fertility rate of African countries is 4.07 births per woman. Europe has the lowest fertility rate as of last year, with 1.4 births per woman.

Fertility rates in the U.S.

The fertility rate in the U.S. fell to the lowest level on record last year, with women in their 20s having fewer babies, researchers at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said earlier this year.

Between 2022 and 2023, the fertility rate fell by 3%, a steeper drop than in previous years. In 2022, the rate held steady, and in 2021, the fertility rate increased by 1%, according to the CDC.

Overall, U.S. fertility rates have been declining for decades, and the drop in 2023 followed historical trends, researchers told USA TODAY.

More women who are having babies are doing so in their 30s, the researchers found. Among women 20 to 24 there was a 4% decline in births.

Over the past few decades, and especially since the great recession of 2008, economic factors and societal expectations have led more people to conclude it's normal to have kids in your 30s, said Allison Gemmill a professor of family and reproductive health at Johns Hopkins University.

"It's OK to have children later, whereas maybe 20 years ago, 30 years ago, that just wasn't the norm," she said.

UN report: World population projected to peak at 10.3 billion in 2080s

Contributing: Claire Thornton, USA TODAY

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: The global fertility rate has decreased over the past three decades