New poll finds Trump pulling ahead of Biden in Virginia

President Joe Biden is slightly trailing former President Donald Trump in Virginia, according to a poll released Tuesday from Virginia Commonwealth University’s L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs.

The poll was conducted between June 24 and July 3, meaning it captured some sentiment following the June 28 presidential debate but occurred before a gunman attempted to assassinate Trump on Saturday at a campaign rally.

When respondents were asked whom they would vote for if the election were held today, 39% said Trump compared with 36% who selected Biden. The difference is less than the margin of error for the poll. But the results reflect a shift toward Trump since the school’s previous survey released in January, which showed Biden leading Trump 42% to 39%.

There was a notable dip in support for Biden among Black Virginians.

“I think the results show that Virginia is truly a ‘battleground state’ for the presidency,” former Virginia Gov. Douglas Wilder said in a news release. “The drop by 20 points (to 46%) of Black Virginians since December, where 67% supported Biden, should be concerning relative to turnout affecting congressional races, in particular in competitive districts 7 and 2.”

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The poll surveyed a representative sample of 809 adults. Over half of respondents (53%) said they were less likely to vote for Trump due to his recent conviction of 34 felony counts of falsification of business records, while others (31%) were more likely to support him following the conviction.

For the remaining candidates, 9% of those surveyed said they would vote for Robert Kennedy Jr., 2% for Jill Stein and 1% for Cornel West.

The poll found little change in Biden’s overall approval rating since the January survey, with 36% approving his job performance and 58% disapproving. Approval was extremely polarized, with 69% of Democrats supporting Biden’s performance and 25% disapproving, as opposed to 8% of Republicans approving and 90% disapproving.

The poll further found Sen. Tim Kaine, a Democrat, holds a strong lead over Republican challenger Hung Cao. Nearly half of Virginians (49%) indicated they would vote for Kaine, with 38% supporting Cao.

Those surveyed identified the most important issues as the rising cost of living (31%), women’s reproductive rights (23%) and immigration (12%). Women were more likely to view reproductive rights as the most important issue (34%) compared with men (12%).

Half of Virginians (50%) approve of Gov. Glenn Youngkin job performance, with 34% disapproving. This is a 4-point drop in approval and a 3-point increase in disapproval from the poll released in January.

The poll’s news release states telephone interviews were used to survey Virginians. Design weights are often employed in telephone survey research to reduce bias and correct differences in the probability of selection due to non-response and non-coverage. This sample was weighted to match Virginia’s adult population, which was the primary sampling unit.

Katie King, katie.king@virginiamedia.com