New poll shows Biden with single-digit lead over Trump in deep blue Rhode Island

Katherine Gregg, Providence Journal
·3 min read
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PROVIDENCE – In Rhode Island, where President Joe Biden comfortably beat former President Donald Trump by more than 20 percentage points four years ago, the sitting president now holds a single-digit lead.

If the election was held today, Democrat Biden would beat Republican Trump by a slim 7 percentage points, according to a newly released poll that found highly "anxious" voters on both sides of the political aisle.

Among the findings of the poll of 1,450 "likely voters" conducted via the web and text messaging by Embold Research for Salve Regina University’s Pell Center from June 5-14, 2024:

  • If the election were held today, Biden would lead Trump 40% to 30% overall. But the data comes with this caution: More than 30% of those who identified themselves as "unaffiliated voters" described themselves as undecided (14%) or leaning toward independent presidential candidate – and anti-vaccine crusader – Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (17%),

  • More than half of those polled – 54% – disapprove of Biden's job performance.

  • Voters in both major political parties are very concerned about the potential impact of misleading information during the 2024 elections to the extent that 38% say they actively "avoid the news," especially national, election and "celebrity" news coverage.

  • Democrats, mindful of what happened in 2020, worry about attempts to overturn the results of the election, violence or civil unrest and voter suppression.

  • The relatively small number of likely Rhode Island voters who identified themselves to the pollsters as Republicans (15%) are very concerned about voter fraud, the misuse of mail-in ballots and inaccurate counting of ballots and were "eight times less likely than Democrats to believe the 2024 U.S. elections will be fair and accurate."

  • There is also a deep partisan split over the legitimacy of the jury verdict in the New York "hush money" case, in which Trump was found guilty of 34 criminal charges. As detected in national polls, 86% of Republicans disagree with the verdict, 91% agree and independents are, for the most part, split down the middle.

The margin of error was plus or minus 2.8% for the likely voter sample, which highlights the potential make-it-or-break it importance of the televised Biden-Trump debate on Thursday for voters still straddling the line.

By way of comparison, Democrat Biden beat Trump 59.4% to 38.6% in Rhode Island in 2020.

Why it matters:

“These survey results paint a picture of a somewhat anxious electorate," said Pell Center Associate Director and Fellow Katie Sonder, who directed the survey.

"Looking ahead to the next few months, most of us are concerned about obtaining accurate information and witnessing a peaceful transition of power through a free and trustworthy election process,” she said. "The level of distrust in the electoral processes is in of itself concerning. It matches a level of distrust in democratic institutions, like Congress and the free press, which we see at the national polling level."

What else does the poll tell us?

Democratic Gov. Dan McKee is not on the ballot this year, and that's probably a good thing: Only 36% approve of his job performance. More than half – 54% – disapprove, which comes close to the 59% who disapprove of the way he has handled the Washington Bridge closure.

Moreover, 60% overall believe Rhode Island is headed down "the wrong track" – though it is worth noting that 66% of Democrats believe the state is on the "right track."

About 73% of those asked strongly or "somewhat" supported the idea of the creation of an Office of the Inspector General, when the question connected the office to the Washington Bridge failure.

The poll also looked at the re-election chances of U.S. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse and U.S. Reps. Gabe Amo and Seth Magaziner, who all hold substantial leads over their potential GOP challengers – though one out of five voters were unsure about each of them in their upcoming races.

Big picture: 44 % of the polling sample was unaffiliated, 39% identified as Democrats and 15% identified themselves as Republican, which roughly mirrors the makeup of Rhode Island's electorate.

This article originally appeared on The Providence Journal: Biden has single-digit lead over Trump in new RI poll