Here’s what polls say about Arizona and other swing states

Gitanjali Poonia
·5 min read
72
A street vendor sells posters while supporters of Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump wait in a line to enter a campaign rally at the Findlay Toyota Arena, Sunday, Oct. 13, 2024, in Prescott Valley, Ariz.
A street vendor sells posters while supporters of Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump wait in a line to enter a campaign rally at the Findlay Toyota Arena, Sunday, Oct. 13, 2024, in Prescott Valley, Ariz. | Rodrigo Abd

Election Day is two weeks away, and Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are using this time to make their final pitches in swing states.

In Arizona, early ballots are already being processed and tabulated, but the energy continues to bubble. This week, Republican vice presidential candidate Sen. J.D. Vance is passing through Arizona and Nevada to highlight his pitch to “Make America Affordable Again,” beginning with a No Tax on Tips policy. Arizona will also see visits from President Joe Biden and former President Bill Clinton — the only two Democratic presidents in modern American history to successfully flip the state blue.

Despite some high-profile appearances from politicians, voters in Arizona are already tired of the upcoming election. After being flooded with non-stop election-related calls, texts, and ads, on top of the many billboards, yard signs and political mailers, it would be safe to assume many voters are fatigued and counting down the days until the election is over.

The state is still in the too-close-to-call category. National surveys show a small gap of 1% to 4% between Trump and Harris, and by and large, the polling out of swing states like Arizona mirrors this trend. According to NBC’s Project Five Thirty Eight, Trump is ahead with 48.7%, compared to Harris’ 46.7% in the state. The latest poll from Washington Post-Schar School painted a similar picture, with Trump leading Harris, 49% to 46%. The former president is ahead of the vice president by more than 1.6 percentage points, according to RealClearPolling’s average of the latest surveys.

Here’s what the polling looks like in the other six swing states.

Georgia

In the Peach State, Harris leads with 51%, roughly 4 points ahead of Trump, the Washington Post-Schar School’s survey found. But the averages from RealClearPolling and Five Thirty Eight show a smaller gap of 1.5% with Trump in the lead.

The former president will host a “Believers and Ballots” faith town hall in Georgia on Wednesday to illustrate his administration’s commitment to religious freedom. Although Biden narrowly won this state in 2020, Trump attempted to overturn the result of the election, contesting it in court.

Michigan

The Washington Post-Schar School poll places the vice president ahead by two points in Michigan, 49% to 47%, but RealClearPolling’s average puts Harris behind by more than 1.2 percentage points.

Harris visited the suburbs of Michigan Monday with former Republican Rep. Liz Cheney to energize voters as part of a tour of the “blue wall” states that include Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. According to CNN, she is targeting blue-collar workers as well as suburban areas with diverse and educated populations.

In 2016, Hillary Clinton became the first Democrat since 1988 to lose Michigan by less than a point against Trump. Biden won it back by about 154,000 votes during the last presidential election. Although this state has leaned blue in the past, the Cook Political report says Michigan’s 15 electoral votes are up for grabs this year.

Nevada

Whether it’s Washington Post’s latest survey or aggregates from RealClearPolling and Five Thirty Eight, Trump and Harris are neck-and-neck in Nevada, with less than a percentage point between them.

This state has six electoral votes — the lowest number of the seven swing states — and a majority of its population, roughly 3.1 million people, reside in the Las Vegas metropolitan area. Nevada has leaned Democratic since 2008.

North Carolina

In North Carolina, Trump enjoys a three-point lead with 50% compared to Harris’ 47%, as per The Washington Post-Schar School poll. FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolling shows a gap of less than a percentage point between the two candidates.

All of North Carolina’s 16 electoral votes are up for grabs. Previously, The Cook Political Report determined the state would “lean Republican,” but this position changed in August after Harris replaced Biden in the race.

The Cook Political Report moved North Carolina from “lean Republican” to a toss up in late August, writing that the state “looks more competitive than ever” since Harris’ entrance into the race, while Cook’s latest survey released earlier this month shows Harris and Trump tied after Harris led by one point here in August.

“The race is tightening, not because Harris is cutting into Trump’s vote, but because Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents are coming home,” Cook Editor-In-Chief Amy Walter wrote in an analysis.

Pennsylvania

FiveThirtyEight shows Trump with 47.9%, less than one percentage point ahead of Harris. But the Washington Post’s survey shows him two percentage points behind Harris.

The Cook Political Report rates the state’s all 19 electoral votes as toss ups. Pennsylvania has a history of voting for the winner of every presidential election since 2008, when former President Barack Obama took office. According to NPR, the state swung red for Trump in 2016, before flipping blue for Biden four years later.

Wisconsin

Trump is ahead by three points in Wisconsin, according to the Washington Post-Schar School poll. But Harris has the slightest edge of less than a percentage point over Trump, per Five Thirty Eight’s polling average.

Since 1992, Wisconsin leaned blue, but Trump broke this streak in 2016 and won the state by 0.8%. Biden won it back in 2020 by another razor-thin margin.