Possible Tropical Storm for Florida/SE U.S.

WOOD
·3 min read

There is a chance of a tropical storm or hurricane early next week in Florida and the Southeast U.S. The orange color on the map means a 40-60% chance of development in the next 7 days.

Interests in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Bahamas and Florida should keep updated on the progress of this system.

A third system (not there yet, so there is no “X” on the map) has a 40-60% chance of developing within the next week – and probably a higher chance if you were to go out 10 days. That system will also likely stay off the Mexican coast.

Here’s the Eastern Pacific Tropical Discussion in English and in Spanish.

As I type this…there is are no tropical storms in the Western Pacific, Indian Ocean or in the Southern Hemisphere (where it is winter). These areas have been unusually quiet so far this year.

Here’s the latest ACE Index – a measure of the number and strength of tropical storms and hurricanes. In the North Atlantic Sector, we have a current ACE Index of 36.1. That compares to an average ACE-to-date of 9.3. So, that’s 388% of average ACE-to-date. Of that 36.1 ACE, 35.1 of that came from long-lived hurricane Beryl. The other two named storms, Alberto and Chris were much smaller and short-lived.

All other global sectors have well below ACE-to-date figures.

It’s been the quietest start ever for the eastern Pacific, where the ACE is currently at just 1.6. Average-to-date ACE for this sector is 40.9, so that’s just 2.5% of average ACE-to-date. This sector will become more active in early August.

The Western Pacific Ocean Sector has an ACE-to-date of 25.0. This is just 28% of average ACE-to-date.

The North Indian Ocean has an ACE-to-date of 1.7, again well below the average ACE-to-date of 9.5.

If you take the entire globe, you get a current ACE-to-date of 64.4. That compares to an average ACE-to-date of 131.1 and that’s just 49% of average ACE-to-date. It’s interesting that at this point, half the global ACE-to-date came from one hurricane (Beryl) in the Atlantic Sector.

Keep coming back to the blog for tropical updates later this week.

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