As protests for Gaza grow nationally, Democrats in close Central Valley House races are quiet

Reality Check is a Fresno Bee series holding those in power to account and shining a light on their decisions. Have a tip? Email tips@fresnobee.com.

Democratic challengers in toss-up San Joaquin Valley congressional races have been quiet about recent campus protests as views on the unrest and the Israel-Hamas War in Gaza divide the party nationally.

Their silence likely doesn’t matter for their election odds, political experts say, as the issue hasn’t picked up as much attention in the San Joaquin Valley — a rural, agricultural hub in the heart of California that contains two of the most hotly-contested races for the U.S. House of Representatives.

“I think Valley universities, the issue has just not resonated, so I don’t think that is going to make a big dent,” said Tom Holyoke, a professor of political science at California State University, Fresno.

Holyoke told The Bee in an interview, “A lot of people here are, frankly, a little more focused on more day-to-day concerns.”

Spokespeople for Democrats and former Assemblymen Adam Gray and Rudy Salas did not respond to requests for comment about campus protests and a potential ceasefire deal. They also didn’t respond to requests for comment last month on the Israel-Hamas War in Gaza.

Their Republican counterparts, Reps. John Duarte and David Valadao, have both said peaceful protests are protected under the Constitution but denounced any violence and vandalism. The GOP nationally has more uniformly denounced pro-Palestinian campus demonstrations while Democrats have been split.

“The right to peacefully protest is a core part of our Constitution and heritage and must be protected,” Duarte, R-Modesto, told The Bee in a statement. “However, this does not give protesters the right to trespass on or vandalize private or public property, disrupt classes in our colleges and universities, or threaten or resort to violence in support of their opinions.”

Duarte added that if protesters engage in those activities, “they should be treated appropriately, which could include arrest, prosecution, suspension or expulsion from their college or university, and loss of student loans,” and college officials who “allow this type of behavior, or who allow anti-Semitic behavior on their campuses, should be firmly disciplined.”

“I support the right to peaceful protest, but violence and vandalism are never acceptable,” Valadao, R-Hanford, wrote on social media last week. “Colleges and universities must stop the chaos unfolding on campuses, hold terrorist sympathizers and those breaking laws accountable, and ensure the safety of Jewish students on campus.”

Why these House races are so close

Duarte and Valadao represent House districts that Democrats want to flip — and nonpartisan experts say it’s possible. Both races are considered toss-ups by forecasters who rate the closeness of elections nationally.

Both districts would have picked President Joe Biden over former President Donald Trump if the current legislative maps had been in place in 2020. Each has more registered Democratic voters than Republicans. Each is a Latino-majority voting district.

But these San Joaquin Valley districts have historically had low turnout, meaning white, older, conservative voters have had a disproportionate electoral say.

Duarte beat Gray in California’s 13th Congressional District, centered around Merced, in 2022 by fewer than 600 votes — the second-closest House race in the country.

Duarte, 57, ran as a farmer and businessman. Gray, 46, was an Assemblyman for his hometown of Merced for a decade.

Valadao bested Salas in California’s 22nd Congressional District, which includes in most of Kings County and parts of Kern and Tulare counties, by less than 3 percentage points that year.

Valadao, 47, has represented the area in Congress since 2013 with the exception of one term that he lost to a Democratic opponent. Salas, 47, was an Assemblyman for his hometown of Bakersfield for a decade.

In 2024 rematches, Democrats hope to flip these seats in an effort to gain the House majority. The House currently has a slim GOP majority, and nonpartisan election analysts say control could go either way in 2025.

Responses to campus protests divide Democrats, unify Republicans

Voters are split on campus protests over the Israel-Hamas War in Gaza. A USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll released Wednesday found mostly divisions among Democrats and unity for Republicans.

Among Biden voters, 30% supported the protests and 39% agreed with their demands but opposed their tactics; 20% opposed the protesters.

Biden last week condemned violence on college campuses while defending the right to peacefully protest, and has denounced rising antisemitism and Islamophobia.

Among Trump voters, 78% opposed protesters. Only 5% supported them; 9% supported their demands but opposed their tactics.

The poll of 1,000 registered voters was taken by landline and cell phone April 30 to May 3. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

That partisan difference comes across in campaign tactics in the Central Valley.

“It’s disappointing but sadly not surprising that Rudy Salas has once again failed to stand up to extremists in his own party,” Andrew Renteria, a campaign spokesman for Valadao, said in a statement sent to The Bee on Monday.

“Rudy was silent when Rep. Valadao’s Hanford office was vandalized by terrorist sympathizers,” Renteria said, “and he’s nowhere to be found now.”

“Adam Gray sides with extremists who attack police officers, threaten Jewish students, and destroy public property?” Duane Dichiara, a campaign strategist for Duarte, said in a statement sent to The Bee on Monday. “Not a surprise, Gray is a far-left extremist and it’s showing.”

Despite the national interest in these races, fewer locals are engaged so far out from November’s election.

“There hasn’t been a lot of attention drawn to them,” Holyoke said. “But it seems like they’re largely going to turn on economic issues, personal economic issues.”

Protests on Israel-Hamas War in Gaza

It’s hard to tell right now how much reactions to the Israel-Hamas War in Gaza and subsequent protests will affect November 2024 elections, analysts say.

“My guess is that Republicans will utilize the protests in messaging all over the country, but the protests do not seem very salient in a lot of places, including the Central Valley,” Kyle Kondik, managing editor of the nonpartisan election-analyzer Sabato’s Crystal Ball, told The Bee in an email.

“We also don’t know how big of an issue the war will be in the fall,” Kondik said. “Democrats of all stripes surely hope it won’t be, if only because the domestic dispute over the handling of the war seems to split the Democratic Party much more than the Republican Party.”

Students across the country, from Columbia University to the University of California, Los Angeles, have established encampments and held demonstrations decrying how the war in Gaza has been conducted, asking university officials to divest from businesses with operations or investments in Israel.

University responses have differed, with some colleges calling in police officers when protesters refused to disperse. At UCLA, violence ensued last week after counterprotesters attempted to dismantle a pro-Palestinian encampment. Police officers on duty were swiftly overwhelmed and did not quell the situation for about three hours.

Protests over Israel’s war in the San Joaquin Valley, which makes up the southern portion of the Central Valley, have been far quieter, said Holyoke of Fresno State.

Around 250 Fresno State students, faculty and staff gathered for a peaceful sit-in showing solidarity with Palestinians last week as the Israel-Hamas war entered its seventh month.

On Oct. 7, Hamas militants attacked Israel, killing 1,200 people and taking 250 hostages. As a result, Israel has waged war on the group in Gaza, killing an estimated 34,000 people and leaving civilians dealing with widespread hunger.

The White House, which has backed Israel throughout the war, has pushed for a halt in fighting to release remaining hostages held by Hamas despite calls from prominent progressive Democrats for a permanent ceasefire. Recently, the president shifted tones on committing to further aid to Israel, pressing officials to do more to protect humanitarian aid workers and civilians.

“We want to get these hostages out, we want to get a ceasefire in place for six weeks, we want to increase humanitarian assistance,” White House National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby told reporters on Monday.

McClatchyDC’s David Catanese contributed to this story.