Putin plays diplomat in meeting with Assad, as trilateral alliance with Turkey floated

Insights from The Associated Press, Al Jazeera, Al-Monitor, and Bloomberg

The News

Vladimir Putin and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad met Wednesday in Moscow, according to the Kremlin.

The core of the conversation focused on tensions in the Middle East and trade relations between the two countries.

Assad is a pariah on the world stage, but Russia has been his stalwart ally since a civil war erupted in Syria in 2011. Now, Russia may be trying to bring Assad back into the fold — one that Russia controls — as Putin positions himself as the de facto leader of an anti-Western world order.

In that vein, Russia wants Syria to normalize relations with Turkey, which faltered after the civil war. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan has also floated the idea of a trilateral meeting between the three men, which would be pivotal to achieving that goal.

SIGNALS

Intolerance toward Syrians in Turkey is pushing Erdogan closer to Assad

There is a growing intolerance toward Syrians in Turkey, partly fueled by the country’s disastrous economic situation — for Syrians, it’s become dangerous to cross the border with Turkey, and repeated attacks are pushing those who are already there to consider returning to their home country, Al Jazeera reported. That may also be one of the key reasons pushing Erdogan to reestablish ties with Assad — about 3.6 million Syrian refugees currently live in Turkey, and a deal to repatriate them could be an asset for Erdogan, The Associated Press noted. Integration for Syrians has been tough, CNN added, with refugees enjoying no right to travel within the country, difficulty getting jobs and social security, and general intolerance from the Turkish population.

Gaza war has a role to play

The conflict in Gaza is another factor pushing Turkey and Syria closer. Iran-affiliated groups in the region, Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthi rebels, have repeatedly launched attacks on Israel to support Hamas from Syria, Al-Monitor noted. Israel has responded by striking Syria, a move that Moscow has reproached, in its signaling of support for Damascus. But there is a fear these attacks may escalate into a wider regional conflict, and that could be making both Turkey and Syria “feel insecure.” Perhaps better to “new alliances in the face of the war’s potential regional ripple effects,” an analyst told The Associated Press.

Normalization of Turkey-Syria relations would ‘mark a setback’ for US

The normalization of ties between Turkey and Syria would present a new problem for the US and “mark a setback” for it in the already troubled region, Bloomberg argued. The push for rapprochement is part of both Russia and China’s strategy to challenge the US as the main diplomatic power in the region. US troops stationed in northeast Syria in support of its Kurdish allies are also an unwelcome presence that Putin and Assad are trying to get rid of, the outlet added. “The long-term implications are clear,” an analyst told Middle East Eye. “Assad is too weak to do much against the Americans,” but Syria and Turkey, working together, would also be stronger in countering American influence.