Putin is quietly encroaching on Nato’s southern border

Putin
Putin

Putin’s evil invasion of Ukraine has rightly been condemned, but what is less reported is the way in which Russia cultivates client states in order to sow disruption and misery around Nato’s borders. 

Russia’s malign foreign policy influence can be detected whether in Syria, Venezuela, Sudan or Libya, exploiting access to natural resources like gold and oil to counteract sanctions and stirring up internal conflict in order to spark illegal migration.

To take a current example, Libya could soon impact global stability in a way not seen since the fall of dictator Muammar Gaddafi in 2011. As the world is rightly focused on the tragedies in Ukraine and Gaza, Libya has been left largely unnoticed by many governments, despite the importance of the country as a common denominator to wider African instability on Nato’s Southern flank. Through eastern Libya’s economic, military and diplomatic collusion with Russia, African nations such as Sudan and Mali have borne the brunt of the nation’s deterioration.

Recent governments in Tripoli have faced continuous challenges from corrupt gangs, warlords, rival administrations and outright warfare. Now the rise of the strongman in the east, General Khalifa Haftar, and his deepening alliance with Russian President Vladimir Putin, puts Libya’s nascent democracy on a knife’s edge.

Through conflict and coercion Haftar has taken much of the ground in the east and south of the country and some of Libya’s crucial oil fields along with it. After his failed bid to storm Tripoli in 2019, a fragile ceasefire has held, alongside an agreement with Tripoli to appoint a consensus candidate to run Libya’s economic powerhouse, the National Oil Corporation (NOC), in a way that benefits ruling clans on both sides.

Haftar has now positioned himself as the dominant force in Libya. This was enabled fully with the help of Russia, bestowing upon Haftar the backing and resources to resume hostilities between his Libyan National Army (LNA) and the Tripoli government.

Coordinating closely with the Kremlin, Haftar has opened his territory to forces from the Wagner Group, using Libya as a platform to facilitate their dispersal into sub-Saharan Africa. Reports have emerged showing trucks of Russian fuel, controlled by Haftar’s forces, passing through his checkpoints to help support Russian activities in countries such as Chad, Mali and Sudan.

It was revealed in April that Russia also transported fighters from Libya to Niger to help strike a deal with the ruling junta that also sees Niger sever ties with Ukraine. This is not an isolated incident. Russia has also used Libya to help in its support of Sudan’s “Rapid Support Forces” in the country’s ongoing civil war, supplying weapons, ammunition and fuel through the porous border. Only last week did we see the horrifying stories of RSF forces brutally murdering innocent civilians in a central village, highlighting just how emboldened paramilitary forces feel.

For the west, this jeopardises years of diplomatic engagement and security cooperation with African nations. As internal conflicts arise, and governments are deposed, diplomatic wedges are created between Africa and the west, with Russia positioned as more natural future ally.

In addition to diplomatic and military threats, Russian influence is also starting to target the west economically, with Libya’s prosperous oil fields under the control of Haftar and with it a new threat to European supplies.

In the past month have we seen Libya’s largest oil field El Sharara shut down by LNA soldiers and in recent days the majority of the nation’s oil fields look set to be shut down too. Unfortunately, the UN backed government is powerless and the National Oil Corporation has failed to use its authority to re-act effectively to the wider looming shutdowns. In fact, the NOC, run by Ferhat Bengdara, was silent as LNA forces swarmed the El Sharara strategic field, taking days to declare force majeure.

This has further damaged the Tripoli government’s reputation and raised new questions about corruption and clientism within NOC. Oil and gas account for 95 per cent of Libya’s exports and, without an NOC that runs effectively and transparently, there can be little hope for a meaningful transition to democracy.

As these threats now become apparent the new Labour government must show leadership. As part of his planned reset with the EU, the Foreign Secretary should take a leading role with France and Italy in a new global coalition to curb Russian influence and sanctions evasion throughout north Africa. To start, Haftar’s quick advance in Libya must be stemmed, real urgency towards finding peace in Sudan should be demonstrated and critical yet corrupt institutions reformed.

By halting Putin’s supply lines, other nations susceptible to Russian influence can be supported and Russia’s wider influence limited. Unless this coalition is formed quickly to challenge Putin’s ambitions along Europe’s southern frontier, we will wake up one day soon to Russian domination around much of the Mediterranean and the Red Sea.


Harriett Baldwin is Shadow International Development Secretary and was FCDO Africa Minister from 2018-19

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