These GOP primaries could help Gov. Katie Hobbs rest her veto stamp

While Democrats work overtime to destroy their chances of hanging onto the White House … and possibly relinquishing control of Congress … here in Arizona, it’s a different story.

Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs reportedly is amassing millions of dollars in her quest to flip the Arizona Legislature to Democrats.

“It’s kind of the perfect storm,” she told Capitol Media Services’ Howard Fischer.

“This is the first time we’ve been this close and had a Democratic governor. And this is what I’m focused on this election is governing majorities who will work with me.”

It’s a big quest. One that could become at least a smidge easier depending on what Republican voters do in the July 30 primary.

It's been forever since Democrats were in control

The last time Democrats controlled both chambers of the Arizona Legislature, the Vietnam War was escalating and a guy named Ronald Reagan was running for governor of California.

In 1966, Republicans broke the Democrats’ hold on power in Arizona, and aside from a glitch here and there, the GOP has dominated the state ever since.

Hobbs is hoping this will be the year to change that. (Some Republicans, fed up with MAGA’s grip on the Legislature, are as well.)

“The relentless chaos at the very top of the ticket makes it increasingly likely Democrats down ticket win,” Democratic strategist Stacy Pearson told me, noting that the abortion ballot question will bring women streaming to the polls.

“Women may not be inspired by the old men at the top of the ticket, but they’re going to enshrine legal access in the state’s constitution. And while they have that pen in their hand, they’ll vote in some local races that matter. School boards, county recorder, state Legislature.”

Odds are better to flip the Senate than House

Republicans now control the House and Senate by just one vote each, so it wouldn’t take much for Democrats to win either a 50-50 split or outright control of one chamber.

“I’d say 75% at least, one house flips,” Republican strategist Barrett Marson said. “The primary will certainly decide how easy/difficult a task that will be for Democrats.”

The Senate seems the more likely chamber to flip.

Fed up with an extreme Legislature? You can change it

Consider:

Legislative District 2

This north Phoenix race, one of the state’s few competitive districts, will pit either Republican Sen. Shawnna Bolick or her GOP challenger Josh Barnett against Democratic Rep. Judy Schwiebert.

Barnett is full-on bonkers, urging the Legislature earlier this year to preemptively lock in Arizona’s 2024 electoral vote for Donald Trump before the election.

Bolick is staunchly conservative but she voted with Democrats to repeal the 1864 law that criminalized abortion —the law her husband, Supreme Court Justice Clint Bolick, had a hand in reviving.

That’s not a good look with Republican primary voters.

It’s also worth noting that Bolick, who was appointed last year to fill a vacancy, has never been elected in this district while Schwiebert has represented the district in the House for two terms.

If Barnett wins the primary, look for Democrats to be leading the conga line.

Legislative District 17

Democrats’ prospects in this Pima County-dominated Senate race largely hinge on whether Republicans back the incumbent.

Sen. Justine Wadsack, one of the Legislature’s far-right culture warriors, knocked off longtime GOP Sen. Vince Leach in the 2022 primary and won the general election by just 51.2% in a district where Republicans have a 10-point edge.Now Leach, with the strong backing of the business community, is hoping to send her packing.

If he wins the Republican primary, Republicans should retain the seat. If it’s Wadsack, Democrats are hoping John McLean, a retired Tucson businessman making his first run for office, can deliver a seat.

Democrats have a chance. That could help Hobbs

Democrats are also hoping challenger Sharon Winters can knock off Republican Sen. J.D. Mesnard in a swing Chandler district and Democrat Stacey Seaman can oust Republican Sen. T.J. Shope in Pinal County.

Mesnard’s vote for the 1864 abortion ban makes him vulnerable. Shope, like Bolick, voted to repeal the 1864 ban. His defeat would be a surprise.

Republicans, meanwhile, are hoping to oust Democratic Sens. Christine Marsh (with either Carine Werner or Kenneth Bowers) in Phoenix in November and Eva Burch (with either Robert Scantlebury or Christopher Stapley) in Mesa.

Both bids seem like long shots.

Overall, I like the Democrats’ chances of getting at least a seat at the big kids’ table. In a state now dominated by the most conservative Legislature in our lifetime, that would be a game changer.

At least, it would give Hobbs’ well-used veto stamp a rest.

Reach Roberts at laurie.roberts@arizonarepublic.com. Follow her on X (formerly Twitter) at @LaurieRoberts.

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This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Arizona Republican primary elections may help Hobbs, flip legislature