Sarasota-Manatee prepares for impact of major Hurricane Milton
Hurricane Milton, which swiftly intensified from a tropical storm to a fearsome Category 5 hurricane in barely a day, was projected Monday to bring life-threatening storm surge to the Sarasota-Manatee County area when it makes landfall early Thursday morning, forecasters said.
There was still uncertainty as to where Milton would make landfall. Various computer models projected paths from north Pinellas County to the Sarasota-Manatee area and south to the Fort Myers area.
Sarasota County Emergency Management Chief Sandra Tapfumaneyi announced that evacuation for Levels A and B, mobile and manufactured homes and for people who live on boats was being implemented. She also urged residents in evacuation Level C to be prepared to evacuate.
Tapfumaneyi warned that while Milton's exact storm path may change, it was almost guaranteed to roil much of Florida's Gulf Coast.
"Evacuations are being called all along the west coast, which means that millions of people will be on the roads evacuating today and tomorrow," Tapfumaneyi. "So do not wait if you need to evacuate and you're in one of those areas, leave today."
Level A includes all of Sarasota's barrier islands and mainland coastline − communities rocked last month by Hurricane Helene which include Longboat Key, St. Armands, Siesta Key, Nokomis, Manasota Beach, and Englewood.
"If you are on a barrier island or anywhere near that level − near the coastline − you will not survive this storm surge, and it is imperative that you evacuate," Tapfumaneyi said.
Evacuation Level B includes more inland areas near intercostal waterways such as the Myakka River and Phillippi Creek. Areas in that zone, such as Pinecraft, endured severe flooding from Hurricane Debby in August.
"We had Hurricane Debby that had 17 inches of rain brought to our county with very little storm surge. We had Helene which brought storm surge of about five to six feet. This storm could possibly bring both of those hazards together into one," Tapfumaneyi said.
Levels A, B, and C together include the vast majority of Sarasota County south of Osprey and southeast of I-75.
County officials warned that electricity and water may be unavailable for "several days to weeks" after landfall. Local evacuation centers will open at 10 a.m. Tuesday.
Sheriff Hoffman: first responder will be off the road when winds hit 40-45 mph
Sarasota County Sheriff Kurt Hoffman warned that emergency personnel would not be available to rescue during the storm itself.
"When 40 to 45 mph wind starts to hit, those first responders are coming off of the road. We're not going to be able to break into your door when the water is eight feet high to get you out of there in the middle of the storm. It's not going to happen. It's going to be unsafe for us to be out there," Hoffman said.
Milton rapidly intensifying in the Gulf
Hurricane Milton strengthened to a Category 4 with 150 mph winds Monday morning, according to a special advisory from the National Hurricane Center, then became a Category 5 with 180 mph by afternoon. The storm was about 675 miles southwest of Tampa.
Life-threatening storm surge anticipated
Regardless of precisely where it makes landfall, storm surge in Sarasota and Manatee counties was forecast to 8-12 feet – more than double what Hurricane Helene brought.
“The power of the water is significant,” said Rick Davis, a forecaster with the National Weather Service in Ruskin.
Along the barrier islands, “sand dunes are pretty much gone so we are extremely vulnerable to storm surge,” he said.
Storm surge from Milton will overwhelm barrier islands, said Bob Bunting, CEO and chairman of the Sarasota-based Climate Adaptation Center.
“An 8-foot storm surge is going to go over the barrier islands totally,” said Bunting, who noted that when the storm surge from Hurricane Ian hit Fort Myers, the water went up to 12 miles inland.
Bunting cautioned that, even though Milton is projected to decrease in intensity some as it approaches land, the decrease in storm surge is more gradual.
“If you have a (Category) 5 storm that becomes a 3, the storm surge doesn’t go down much,” Bunting said.
“The weight of that water coming in is so much more destructive,” he said. “A 10-foot storm surge is a clean sweep; it takes everything with it.
“It’s more like what you would expect in a tsunami,” Bunting added, “It’s a much more powerful and destructive thing and it could go inland pretty far.”
Bunting stressed that in previous hurricane encounters, “We haven’t had damaging winds in any of these.
“Winds over 100 miles an hour are terrifying,” Bunting said. “It’s incredibly unusual, Not that many people experience that.
“The storm surge and the heavy winds and the rain all at one time it’s really one of nature’s most frightening situations,” he added. “You might be doing fine in your house and all of a sudden something comes through the wall.”
Flooding likely because of saturated soils
Rainfall forecasts called for 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals of up to 15 inches, with the possibility of localized flooding.
Davis said that while only about 1.5 inches was recorded Sunday at Sarasota Bradenton International Airport, the area likely received more than that. “You could almost say 2 to 6 inches of rain close to the coast and not much rain inland,” Davis said.
“Our soils are very saturated and it doesn’t take much to create flooding problems.”
Area river flooding is likely.
The Myakka River at Myakka State Park is forecast to go into moderate flood stage by Thursday morning, cresting at 9 ½ to 10 feet.
The Manatee River at Myakka Head is forecast to go into moderate flood stage as well.
Tropical storm force winds were projected to arrive in the Sarasota-Manatee area between overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The main threat of tornadoes would be late Tuesday into Wednesday night.
“This is going to be an extremely large storm,” Davis said. “The eye may be 50 miles wide; the eye may be bigger than the entire county.”
Strongest local landfall since Tropical Storm Gabrielle in 2001
The strongest storm to make landfall in Sarasota County was Tropical Storm Gabrielle on Sept. 14, 2001, with a minimum central pressure of 980 mb, along with a small core of sustained winds just below hurricane force, that made landfall at Siesta Key, according to the National Hurricane Center.
“Gabrielle technically was the highest end tropical storm, only 1 mph under a hurricane,” Davis said.
In the confusion immediately after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, Davis said Gabrielle – which did reach peak winds of 80 mph as a Category 1 hurricane – may have been at hurricane strength when it made landfall.
Prior to that, “It has been brushed many many times throughout history,” he added.
Most recently hurricanes that have brushed by Sarasota-Manatee with significant damage include Hurricanes Helene, Debby, Idalia, Ian, and Ian.
According to the Sarasota History Center, the first hurricane to do major structural damage in Sarasota occurred in 1921, which produced a storm surge that pounded the coastline from Sarasota to Clearwater for 36 hours.
More than 7 feet of storm and tidal surge impacted the barrier islands and sent water from Sarasota Bay past Five Points in downtown Sarasota.
The coastal destruction of what had then been a fishing village allowed the local government to effectively change Sarasota to a resort city.
A 1944 hurricane that featured winds of more than100 mph damaged both the Venice and Sarasota army air bases.
Storm surge from Hurricane Easy – the first named storm – in 1950, swamped barrier islands and generated 60 mph winds and high tides in Sarasota.
Hurricane Donna, which went past Sarasota and Venice with winds of 90 mph caused flooding and wind damage.
This story was updated to add a video.
This article originally appeared on Sarasota Herald-Tribune: Sarasota-Manatee prepares for Major Hurricane Milton