Senate map in GOP's favor right now; Ohio key race to decide control

MILWAUKEE – It’s a good time to be a Republican Senate candidate.

The 2024 campaign map was already in their favor, with nearly every vulnerable seat this cycle held by a Democrat making it a relatively easy hurdle to overcome to retake the narrowly-divided chamber and give Donald Trump an essential boost for his governing agenda should he win the White House in November.

One of the key races that will decide on Senate control is right here in Ohio between Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown and Republican Bernie Moreno. Right now, Democrats have a 51-49 majority in the chamber.

The panic in the Democratic Party following President Joe Biden’s debate performance further strengthened the GOP's hand, even leading analysts to change one key Senate race – Michigan – from leaning towards Democrats to a “toss up.”

On Saturday, Brown became the latest U.S. senator to call for Biden to drop out of the race for the presidency.

Then Trump narrowly survived an assassination attempt at a rally in Pennsylvania. It’s too early to tell exactly how the shooting has impacted polling in down-ballot races, but it invigorated attendees to this week’s Republican National Convention that was held in another critical 2024 Senate battleground – Wisconsin – and sparked talk of an overall boost turnout among Republican-leaning voters in the most competitive states.

“I think the president’s actions subsequent to the assassination attempt rallied the intensity for a lot of people,” said Mike Rogers, the Trump-endorsed GOP Senate candidate in Michigan running for the seat being vacated by retiring Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow.

A dozen of the 2024 Republican Senate candidates, including Moreno, spoke back-to-back-to-back at the RNC on Tuesday night, valuable primetime slots in a convention that was dramatically remade in Trump’s image compared to the last full-scale national confab in 2016.

Most of their remarks centered on security, the convention’s theme for that evening, including familiar warnings against surges in migration to the U.S. southern border and the dangers of fentanyl. Candidates also mentioned inflation, energy policy, their military service and the failures they say have been evident under the Biden administration.

What is the path to a Senate GOP victory?

The bullet that grazed Trump’s ear at a rally in Pennsylvania was top of mind for candidates as they made their appeals to voters on the RNC stage.

Moreno said he is “extraordinarily angry” because of the shooting and expected political support would only be growing for the GOP in Ohio, where Moreno is trying to keep Brown from winning a fourth term.

Moreno didn’t say directly whether the assassination attempt on Trump could further boost turnout for Republicans in Ohio, but noted: “Our voters are animated. Our voters want this election to happen today."

Moreno, a Cleveland businessman, added that there is another unique appeal for Ohioans to turnout to vote this fall: Ohio Sen. JD Vance is Trump’s vice presidential running mate. “You gotta root for your hometown team.”

Democratic candidates, including Brown, have been polling ahead of Biden in their states – a necessary element of the party's strategy in order to win in places that could ultimately go for Trump. For example, Baldwin led Hovde by 5 percentage points in Wisconsin late last month.

They are also largely out-raising their Republican counterparts, providing a war chest that will be a meaningful boost in a year when they can’t count at the moment on voter enthusiasm for the top of the ticket. But Republicans still sense an opening.

“So they’re going to probably out raise us, no doubt about it,” said Rogers, who is expected to face the Democratic Senate front-runner, Elissa Slotkin, currently a Michigan congresswoman, this fall. “It’s how we deploy capital where we believe we can have the most impact,” including appealing to working class voters, grassroots organizing and “talking to people where they get their news” and “better messaging," he added.

Tommy Garcia, spokesperson for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, countered in a statement to USA TODAY that his party will beat the GOP in November because “we have a better message, better candidates, and better campaigns.”

“Voters continue to see Senate races as candidate versus candidate battles, and voters are repulsed by Senate Republican recruits’ ever-growing list of scandals, baggage, and toxic policy positions,” he said.

What's at stake for Trump?

Winning a majority of Senate seats – or even notching a 50-50 tie with the Democrats – would be a major boost for Trump's agenda should the Republican win a second term in the White House in November.

The Senate is responsible for confirming all manner of presidential appointees, from Cabinet and sub-Cabinet positions to federal judges up to the U.S. Supreme Court.

Being the party in power also means controlling the Senate floor schedule for which bills get considered, though actually moving legislation means some level of bipartisan support is needed because of the filibuster rule that requires 60 votes for passage.

Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mt., the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, told USA TODAY he reminded Trump of those important details when he visited the former president at his Mar-a-Lago private club and residence soon after being elected in November of 2022 to lead the group tasked with winning the Senate this election cycle for Republicans.

“I said the most important thing we can give you when you’re president is a Republican majority,” Daines said. Should Democrats hold onto their majority, Daines argued “it would really be a constitutional crisis, because if you think the resist movement was a big deal last time President Trump was in office, imagine what it’d be like going forward in 2025.”

This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: Ohio Senate race key to control of the chamber