Would a smaller population mean fewer local events in the future?

Editor's Note: This is the first of an occasional series looking at how the Somerset County region plans to prepare for a predicted 8,000 population drop by 2050.

A recent report from the Pennsylvania Tourism Office shows the tourism industry in the commonwealth generated $76.7 billion in economic impact, supported 486,871 jobs, contributed $4.7 billion in state and local taxes, and welcomed 192.4 million visitors in 2022, according to a press release issued March 13 by the state Department of Community and Economic Development.

A $7.5 billion increase in direct visitor spending will reach $45.4 billion – including hotels, restaurants, retailers and other tourism-related businesses.

As one of the largest industries in Pennsylvania, Gov. Josh Shapiro recognizes the key role tourism plays in the commonwealth’s economy, the release said. His 2024-25 budget called for a $15 million increase in funding for tourism.

Projected population changes through the year 2050 released by the Center for Rural Pennsylvania, in partnership with the Pennsylvania State Data Center, show rural areas will face a 5.8% population decline. Somerset County, in particular, may lose more than 8,000 members of its population by 2050.

The population study, explained: Report indicates Somerset County population will drop by 8,000 by 2050

How would this projected decrease in population affect entertainment and tourism in Somerset County? Can local organizations continue to keep all or some of these festivals and special events going, and how can the people in the county support these events?

'Recreation is outdoors'

"In Somerset County, recreation is outdoors. Every festival is outdoors," said Ron Aldom, Somerset County Chamber of Commerce executive director. "The state parks started rising in visitors during COVID, and they never went down. The Great Allegheny Passage increased (its) number of visitors and that never went down. I've seen nothing that indicates a decline in visitation. I don't see ours going backward in growth. Hotel taxes are steady to increasing. The growth of Airbnbs in the county – I see that it's working. They are paying their hotel tax and we're seeing an increase in that."

Aldom said because Somerset County's tourism is mostly outdoors, he feels the county is promoting not just recreation, but a quality of life.

"Urban living is going through a metamorphosis that's not good. Crime is going up," he said. "COVID was a big help here. Work life changed. People live here and work elsewhere. I'm seeing it. Resort housing went nuts – although prices went up, too. People are searching for a quality of life.

"The outdoors is a quality of life. People connect their kids to outdoor recreation, having them put down their phones, iPads, games and getting outside," Aldom said. "Mike Mumau, park manager at Laurel Hill State Park, said his number of visitors is going through the roof. He's seeing a steady growth."

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County commissioners agree

“We try to stem the tide of outmigration on many levels, but, combined with lower birth rates, population loss is having a growing impact on school enrollments, the number of people seeking public office, volunteerism and on resources available to support the public sector,” Somerset County Commissioner Pamela Tokar-Ickes said in an email.

“Despite the projected loss of residents, Somerset County is geographically located in the heart of western Pennsylvania’s thriving recreational outdoor economy. Our mountains, trails and heritage assets combine to make Somerset County a true destination, welcoming the world to our communities.”

How do we continue what we do?

Aldom said festivals and special events will have to adjust their offerings if they want to continue bringing people to these events.

"Some of the businesses are starting to adapt, allowing employees to volunteer at events during the workday. That is definitely having an effect. It's working," he said. "The younger population has a different mentality than we have. Are we making improvements to make local people come? Yes, I gotta believe we're all doing that."

Aldom gives an example that he's experienced firsthand. The chamber hosts an antique fair every August. The event used to include more than 100 antique vendors a few years ago, but now the chamber is struggling to get 70. Aldom said it had to be regenerated into Antiques, Artisans and Ales to draw a different crowd.

"The antique industry isn't what it used to be. We had to do something because antique dealers are decreasing. By attrition, we have nobody to replace them," he said. "Artisans add a different profession to draw other people to get people there. Ales has an entertainment value."

Aldom said adding new events to create more interest and reach a different bracket of people is another way to increase tourism in the county.

"One area that went big is the Maple Tours. That became an asset, a precursor to the maple festival," he said. "They describe the maple process and people are totally interested in that."

Another growth area was not offered until recently – tours of breweries, distilleries and wineries.

"They're offering tours and events to bring in visitors," Aldom said. "That is an area that has potential, but it has to be something somebody can make money at. To get people moving around the county.

"The spur to Flight 93 is another bicyclist attraction. The new spur will be something everybody will like to explore. Meyersdale, Rockwood and Garrett should see an increase in visitors. Anything you do to make the people stay longer."

The organizations, businesses and festivals have to work together to bring the people here, Aldom said. He recommends they "leverage more collaborative advertising and marketing. How do we work together for this?"

A sweet time for all: 77th Pa. Maple Festival big part of community of Meyersdale

Finding volunteers is a challenge

Aldom said his biggest concern is finding volunteers.

"Volunteers, or the lack thereof, is scary. Workforce is an issue, not just in tourism, but fire departments, emergency medical services, other areas. It's systemic. Is there a way we can cross over with volunteers? We've got to look at ways to help each other," he said. "Make a commitment to each other – you help us and we'll help you. It's got to be addressed."

The commissioners agree the population decline will continue to challenge human resources, both workforce and volunteers.

“The county can continue its momentum by using the next decade to fund the completion of the 9/11 trail, maintain the quality experience of the GAP and strengthen its network of volunteers to maintain those trail systems,” Tokar-Ickes said. “The county can also use the recreation economy as an emerging marketing strategy to attract those who want to live here and work remotely by partnering with providers to expand high-speed internet access in our communities.”

Aldom said the question that business people he's met with lately are saying is, "Can you reverse that decrease in population projection?"

"You can, but what would it take?" he asked.

This article originally appeared on The Daily American: How could a decline in population affect tourism-related business?