South Carolina primary predictions: Turnout and the races expected to draw voters
South Carolina voters head to the polls for Tuesday's primary election. Experts expect a low overall turnout with two congressional races at the top of the ballot as the area's largest draws.
In the Upstate, the 3rd congressional district, which encompasses rural areas from Oconee to Saluda counties and a GOP stronghold, voters can choose between seven Republican candidates vying for the nomination or two Democratic candidates. The U.S. House district's longtime GOP Rep. Jeff Duncan decided against re-election after serving seven terms.
In the 4th congressional district, South Carolina’s Freedom Caucus Chairman and founder Adam Morgan is seeking to unseat incumbent William Timmons for the Republican nomination.
Several state legislators are facing primary challengers and there are key races for county offices.
Still, Danielle Vinson, professor of politics and international affairs at Furman University, expects a lower turnout than if voters were electing a U.S. Senator or the governor. In the congressional districts, however, Vinson expects a higher turnout because of the third district’s open seat and the competitive nature between an incumbent and a well-known state representative in the fourth district.
But, even with the predicted low turnout, Vinson said local elections could be more important than national ones, especially in the primary where there is no competition from an opposing party in the fall.
“Especially in races like the third district, that district is not one that is going to change hands,” Vinson said. “Unless the candidate messes themselves up or decides to step down, the primary is where that race is decided. No Democrat has a chance in the third congressional district, and so those become really important because those voices in Congress matter.”
Duncan announced in January he would retire after becoming the center of controversy when his wife, Melody, filed for divorce citing infidelity in September. Duncan did not face a serious challenger during his tenure in Congress. He was first elected in 2010.
Local elections still heating up
In Greenville County, a little more than half of council members are up for re-election. All face an opponent in the primary, with some facing multiple after a combative year in 2023 when council passed a budget raising county taxes by $28 for every $100,000 in value.
After incumbent Steve Shaw, a Republican representing District 20, announced he would seek an open seat in South Carolina’s Senate, but later decided to run for re-election for his county council seat. Shaw will face challengers Alex Reynolds and Ken Matesevac.
Ennis Fant, a representative for District 25 and one of two Democrats, faces opponents Patrick Prince, Derrick Quarles, and Lisa Sweeney in the primary.
In the only open seat on Greenville’s County council as Republican Stan Tzouvelekas seeks a state house seat, candidates Frank Farmer, Ethan Jedziniak, Jay Rogers, and Nia Thomas face off for the Republican nomination.
Also in Greenville County, former patrol deputy Mike Fortner will challenge incumbent sheriff Hobart Lewis in the primary. Next door, in Spartanburg County, incumbent sheriff Chuck Wright will face a former Spartanburg County Sheriff's Office corporal Nick Duncan.
More: Timmons versus Morgan: Here's where the Republican candidates stand on three key issues
Yvonne Julian, chairperson for Greenville County’s GOP, said she hopes for turnout equal to the Republican presidential primary in February, which had 95,116 ballots cast in Greenville County. In Anderson County, there were 34,605 ballots, with Spartanburg County accounting for 47,431 votes, according to data from the South Carolina Election Commission.
Since early primary voting began on May 28, 5,891 people had cast ballots in Greenville County as of Tuesday, 2,103 had voted in Spartanburg County, and Anderson County had 3,124 ballots cast. Early voting will continue until Friday, June 7.
Julian said she hopes people will show up to vote but recognizes it can be a challenge because some voters tend to be more focused on the general election, adding that some races only face a challenger in this month’s primary but do not face a challenger in the November general election.
“The primary is like a general for many races in South Carolina,” Julian said.
Greenville County Democratic Party Chair Amanda McDougald Scott had similar concerns, noting that it might be easier for someone to vote for president, but voting in local elections presents more obstacles, as a person has to seek out information on their county's districts and who currently represents them.
"Sometimes it's just about who is plugged in and who is not," Scott said.
What issues will define this year's primary?
In South Carolina, many Republicans are campaigning on similar issues such as the economy and border security.
Vinson said these are also the top issues for voters.
According to Pew Research, immigration increased from 39% to 57% as a top priority throughout Biden’s presidency, with the change coming almost entirely from Republicans. The research also pointed to strengthening the economy as Americans’ top policy priority.
Though former President Donald Trump will not appear on the ballot until November, Julian said he could still be a motivating factor to encourage people to vote in the Republican primaries.
Scott said that throughout the race so far, she's seen campaigns revolve less around issues and more revolving around the incumbents.
"It's about if the incumbent has done a good job or if people want to keep the incumbent or if they want to find someone else for the job."
Savannah Moss covers politics for the Greenville News. Reach her at smoss@gannett.com or follow her on X @Savmoss.
This article originally appeared on Greenville News: Expect low voter turnout for South Carolina's primary election
