St. Paul and Stillwater awaiting rivers’ crest as other parts of state more severely impacted

Frederick Melo, Mary Divine, Alex Derosier, Pioneer Press
Updated ·6 min read
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In downtown St. Paul, the Mississippi River was measuring nearly 15.5 feet on Monday and is expected to crest around 20 feet on or about Friday — well into “major flood stage” — submerging low-lying areas in Harriet Island Regional Park and other parts of the city.

The river last crested at 20 feet in March 2019.

By that point, the Clarence W. Wigington Pavilion, picnic tables, parklands and other scenic destinations beneath Water Street will be flooded at least up to the Harriet Island playground, with waters possibly reaching the bottom of its swings, as the Mississippi did five years ago. Weather forecasters were eyeing a 50% chance of heavy rain overnight leading into Tuesday.

“Models have moved down a tad since last week due to less rain than expected over the weekend, but … the hydrograph is still showing a crest at 20 feet on or around Friday,” said Clare Cloyd, a spokesperson for St. Paul Parks and Recreation.

Walz: ‘Unprecedented’ flooding

Other parts of the state have been more severely impacted by what Gov. Tim Walz deemed “unprecedented” flooding, which caused heavy damage in some communities in southern Minnesota.

Roaring waters tore through the Rapidan Dam on the Blue Earth River, located about 10 miles south of Mankato. Although authorities initially described the dam as in “imminent failure condition,” they now say they believe it will hold.The Blue Earth River joins the Minnesota River near Mankato.

“We’re making sure first and foremost people are safe, protecting property and protecting public infrastructure,” Walz said Monday morning as he and officials with the Department of Public Safety, the National Weather Service and the National Guard briefed reporters on the floods.

About 40 counties have been hit by major flooding and so far seven have applied for emergency relief from the state. Walz over the weekend declared a peacetime emergency, activating the Minnesota National Guard to assist with disaster relief in areas affected by flooding.

Minnesota has seen “impressive” amounts of rain in the past month, leading to flooding in many rivers across the state, said Daniel Hawblitzel, meteorologist in charge at the National Weather Service in the Twin Cities.

Some areas have seen rainfall amounts of 8 to 9 inches above normal in the month of June alone, and some parts of southern Minnesota have seen as much as 10 to 12 inches of rain in the past week.

That’s led to major flooding on parts of the Cannon, Cottonwood, Crow, Des Moines and Minnesota rivers, and some continue to rise, according to the weather service. In Windom, the Des Moines River on Monday eclipsed the record level set in 1969, with an even higher crest expected Wednesday.

“This situation is rapidly evolving and has been stated earlier it’s a tough situation to predict,” Hawblitzel said.

Forecasters expect more severe weather and rain this week. There could be relief midweek, but Hawblitzel said there are signs rain will return and that the wet weather pattern will continue this summer.

“In this case most of the water is being channeled from one particular basin, which is the Minnesota (River), which is why we’re going to have those impacts in St. Paul,” said Hawblitzel.

The Minnesota River feeds into the Mississippi River just south of St. Paul near Fort Snelling, and once water gets into the Mississippi the NWS is expecting moderate flooding. The Mississippi can handle significantly more water, Hawblitzel said.

St. Paul

St. Paul officials closed a 3-mile stretch of Shepard/Warner Road on Sunday evening and have taken other precautionary measures at parks, trails and low-lying areas. Some one-way street segments downtown that normally connect to Shepard Road have been closed to through-traffic and converted to two-way traffic for local access to buildings. Temporarily closing Shepard Road/Warner Road is part of the city’s official flood response plan when rising river levels near the “moderate flood stage” of 15 feet. Major flood stage is reached at 17 feet.

In addition to street closings announced last week, Fourth Street between Willius Street and Commercial Street is now closed, and Childs Road will close at 9 a.m. Tuesday.

“We don’t anticipate any impact to the new construction areas along Harriet Island, but are monitoring and our (Department of Safety and Inspections) staff has made rounds of in-person contact, and frequent written communication updates to property owners along the floodplain on both sides of the river,” Cloyd said.

At Crosby Farm Regional Park in Highland Park on Monday, camp director Julia Beasley was forced to relocate Camp Wilderness Awakening’s planned activities from the riverside beach to the picnic shelter just off Gannon Road. With water submerging tree trunks along the wooded trail, campers caught toads and marveled at clumps of long, stringy earthworms that had surfaced en masse by the water’s edge.

A spokesperson for St. Paul Parks and Recreation said overnight rain likely will force further trail closures in the park by midweek, so Beasley made plans to move her campers to Como Park for the rest of the week. Behind her, a man and his adult daughter waded almost ankle-deep through a short section of flooded trail to see how far they could get toward the beach. They returned a short time later, having encountered little more than swampy water and two garter snakes. “It’s like ‘Jumanji,’” joked Beasley.

Parks and Rec has already canceled several events at Harriet Island and Kelly’s Landing facilities, including some weddings, Cloyd said.

Stillwater

Meanwhile, the St. Croix River was at 685.1 feet in Stillwater on Monday afternoon; minor flood stage is 687 feet. The river is set to crest in Stillwater at 9 a.m. Sunday at 687.8 feet, which is just under moderate flood stage, according to the National Weather Service.

Mayor Ted Kozlowski said he and other city officials are “keeping their eyes on the sky at this point.”

“We could get more rain tonight,” he said. “It could be nothing. There’s just so much uncertainty. Any precipitation at this point is just going to extend the flood situation.”

No volunteers are needed to help prepare sandbags to reduce floodwater damage, he said, “but we’re only a 3-inch rain event from potentially needing some.”

For updated information on the Mississippi River at St. Paul go to water.noaa.gov/gauges/STPM5 For information on the St. Croix River at Stillwater go to water.noaa.gov/gauges/stlm5.

Top recorded river crests for Mississippi River at St. Paul

If and when the Mississippi River surpasses 19.02 feet at downtown St. Paul, it will be a top 10 historic recorded crest for the city. The No. 1 spot was reached on April 16, 1965, when the river crested at 26.01 feet. For more information go to StPaul.gov/flood.

Here’s how the 20-foot forecasted crest compares to past historic levels recorded in St. Paul:

• 26.01 feet on 04/16/1965.

• 24.52 feet on 04/15/1969.

• 23.76 feet on 04/18/2001.

• 23.20 feet on 04/30/2001.

• 22.37 feet on 04/13/1997.

• 22.02 feet on 04/16/1952.

• 20.19 feet on 03/31/2019.

• 20.13 feet on 06/26/2014.

• 19.15 feet on 06/26/1993.

• 19.02 feet on 03/29/2011.

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