System in Gulf brings rain to Mexico as chances for development dwindle
An area of stormy weather in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico could bring localized flooding to parts of northeastern Mexico Sunday, though its chances for tropical development are steadily dwindling.
The large area of showers and thunderstorms was located about 20 miles southeast of La Pesca, Mexico, as of 8 p.m. and was due to head inland, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Its odds of developing dropped to 10% from 40% earlier in the day.
The next named storm will be Beryl.
The 2024 hurricane season, which officially began June 1, is expected to be extremely active.
In its annual May outlook, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said that the 2024 hurricane season has an 85% chance of being above normal, with 17 to 25 named storms with minimum sustained winds of 39 mph, and eight to 13 hurricanes. An average year has 14 named storms and seven hurricanes.
In addition, NOAA has forecast four to seven major hurricanes for 2024, meaning those that are Category 3 or above.
Experts at Colorado State University stated in their 2024 forecast that the U.S. East Coast, including Florida, had a 34% chance of a major hurricane making landfall this year. The average from 1880-2020 was 21%.
Forecasters say that the record-warm water temperatures that now cover much of the Atlantic Ocean will continue into peak hurricane season from August to October. That warm water fuels hurricanes. By early June, the tropical Atlantic was already as hot as it usually is in mid-August — peak hurricane season.
Hurricane season officially ends Nov. 30.
