Is Tropical Storm Alberto forming? NHC tracking tropical disturbance in Gulf of Mexico

Alexis Simmerman, Austin American-Statesman
·3 min read
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The National Hurricane Center is tracking two systems to see which − if either − tropical disturbance in the Atlantic basin will become the first named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

The systems include Invest 90L off the southeastern coast and a tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico, as described by the center's latest tropical outlook.

The NHC is also tracking two tropical waves: One in the Atlantic and another in the Caribbean.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance has 40% chance of becoming tropical depression

An area of low pressure is expected to form in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico late this weekend or early next week. Here are the predictions as of Friday morning:

  • Chance of formation through 48 hours: low, near 0%

  • Chance of formation through 7 days: medium, 50%

National Hurricane forecasters give the system a 40 percent chance of becoming the season's first tropical depression.

"The ingredients are in place for tropical development across the southern Gulf of Mexico," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty. "These ingredients include light winds and very warm water."

There will be a small window for a tropical system to form.

"The main limiting factor for development will be the close proximity to land and limited time over water," Douty said. "Despite these limitations, it looks increasingly likely that a tropical depression or storm can develop."

People are also reading: Gulf of Mexico disturbance may become tropical depression, National Hurricane Center says

Tropical conditions 8 a.m. June 14, 2024.
Tropical conditions 8 a.m. June 14, 2024.

Invest 90L shifts up southeastern coast

Invest 90L, which brought a deluge of rain — especially to Southwest and South Florida — is now off the southeastern coast of the U.S. As it moves away from the Florida coast, rain coverage is expected to decline. Here are the predictions as of Friday morning:

  • Chance of formation through 48 hours: low, 20%

  • Chance of formation through 7 days: low, 20%

"As it accelerates out-to-sea, apparent wind shear will diminish, and a thermodynamic boost from the Gulf Stream may help the low snag the name Alberto," according to Truchelut, who works with the USA TODAY Network-Florida to provide the latest storm information Florida residents need.

"However, even if it does become the first named storm of 2024, there will be no further impacts on land," Truchelut said.

Tropical conditions 8 a.m. June 14, 2024.
Tropical conditions 8 a.m. June 14, 2024.

Tropical waves

As of Friday morning, the National Hurricane Center was tracking two tropical waves in the Atlantic:

  • Tropical wave 1: A tropical wave is located in the central Atlantic. It's moving west at 11 to 17 mph.

  • Tropical wave 2: A tropical wave in the Caribbean is moving west at 11 to 17 mph.

Hurricane storm tracker: See active storms in the Atlantic.

Weather watches and warnings issued in Texas

Have any hurricanes hit the U.S. this hurricane season?

Hurricane season stretches from June 1 Nov. 30 with a peak in mid-September. There have not been any hurricanes this year in the U.S.

Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city

— USA TODAY reporter Cheryl McCloud contributed to this report.

This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: Is Tropical Storm Alberto forming? NHC tracking Gulf of Mexico system