Tropical Storm Francine expected to become hurricane before making landfall in Louisiana
In a hurry? Here's the tropics situation in less than a minute.
Tropical Storm Francine is expected to become a hurricane later today, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
On the forecast track, Francine is forecast to be just offshore of the coasts of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas through Tuesday, and make landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday.
➤Spaghetti models for Francine
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Both Hurricane Center and AccuWeather forecasters anticipate Francine will be a Category 2 hurricane before making landfall. A Category 2 storm has wind speeds between 96 and 110 mph.
Impacts expected include heavy rain and storm surge.
Francine is the first Atlantic named storm in almost a month. There hasn't been a storm since Ernesto formed Aug. 12. The last time there has been no named storm in the Atlantic basin between Aug. 13 and Sept. 8 was 1968.
Where is Tropical Storm Francine? What you need to know
Location: 120 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Rio Grande; 415 miles south-southwest of Cameron, Louisiana
Maximum sustained winds: 65 mph
Movement: north-northwest at 7 mph
Pressure: 992 mb
Next advisory: 7 a.m. CDT; 8 a.m. EDT
Interactive map: Excessive rainfall forecast
Spaghetti models: Latest models on where Tropical Storm Francine could make landfall in Louisiana
Special note about spaghetti models: Spaghetti model illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
Watches, warnings issued across Louisiana
For an explanation of what the watches and warnings mean, scroll to the bottom of this story.
Hurricane watch:
The Louisiana coast from Morgan City eastward to Grand Isle
Hurricane warning:
The Louisiana coast from Sabine Pass eastward to Morgan City
Storm surge watch:
Mouth of the Mississippi River Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
Lake Maurepas
Lake Pontchartrain
Storm surge warning:
High Island Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River Louisiana
Vermilion Bay
Tropical storm watch:
Barra del Tordo to La Pesca Mexico
Port Mansfield to High Island Texas
East of Grand Isle Louisiana to Mouth of the Pearl River, including metropolitan New Orleans
Lake Pontchartrain
Lake Maurepas
Tropical storm warning:
Morgan City to Grand Isle
High Island to Sabine Pass
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield
La Pesca Mexico to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
How strong is Tropical Storm Francine and where is it going?
At 4 a.m., CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Francine was located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 96.2 West.
Francine is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph. A slow north-northwest motion is expected through this morning, followed by a turn to the northeast with an increase in forward speed.
On the forecast track, Francine is anticipated to be just offshore of the coasts of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas through today, and make landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph, with higher gusts.
Francine will likely become a hurricane today, with significant strengthening expected before it reaches the coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb.
Key messages from the National Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Tropical Storm Francine
There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge for portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in the warning area should follow advice, including evacuation orders, given by local officials.
Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions of southern Louisiana Wednesday, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be complete by tonight, since tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within this area early Wednesday.
Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of considerable flash flooding for much of Louisiana and Mississippi through Thursday. Flash and urban flooding is probable across portions of northeast Mexico and far southern Texas into early Wednesday, and the Mid-South Wednesday night into Friday morning.
Current forecast: How strong could Tropical Storm Francine get?
As of 4 a.m. CDT: 65 mph
12 hours: 80 mph (Category 1 hurricane)
24 hours: 90 mph
36 hours: 100 mph (Category 2 hurricane)
48 hours: 60 mph (inland)
60 hours: 35 mph
72 hours: 30 mph
96 hours: 25 mph
120 hours: dissipated
What impact could Tropical Storm Francine have and what areas could be affected?
Wind: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by Wednesday morning within the warning areas.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Mexico and south Texas through this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the northeastern coast of Mexico for the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are also possible along portions of the Texas coast in the watch area today and tonight, and are possible in the watch area in eastern Louisiana on Wednesday.
Storm surge: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:
Cameron, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft
Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft
High Island, TX to Cameron, LA...3-5 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to MS/AL Border...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to High Island, TX...1-3 ft
Galveston Bay...1-3 ft MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border...1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees.
Rainfall: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across much of Louisiana and Mississippi through Friday morning. This rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding.
Tornadoes: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday morning through Wednesday night over near-coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.
Surf: Swells generated by Francine are affecting portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas. These swells are expected to spread across the northwestern and northern Gulf of Mexico coastline during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions
Atlantic tropics storm tracker
See new 'cone of concern' used with Tropical Storm Francine
The National Hurricane Center first launched its new "cone of concern" for Hurricane Ernesto on Aug. 14 and is using it now with Tropical Storm Francine.
Ernesto stayed well away from Florida and the U.S., so residents didn't see many differences between the original and new cone.
With Francine already affecting Texas and a day to go before an expected landfall in Louisiana, that's not the case with the new cone posted by the National Hurricane Center on its website.
One of the biggest differences between the two cones is that the new cone shows wind warnings issued for interior counties, not just those on the coast.
Both cones will be visible on the Hurricane Center's website. Find the new cone by going to the graphics page for the storm, then click on "New Experimental Cone," which is highlighted in red.
Differences you'll see:
Watches and warnings for inland counties, not just coastal areas.
White transparent shading for the entire five-day forecast, instead of white stippling (dots) for the four- and five-day forecast.
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This article originally appeared on Athens Banner-Herald: Tropics update: Tropical Storm Francine path, radar, impacts
