Tropical Storm Helene forms, is expected to strengthen fast. See South MS forecast

Tropical Storm Helene formed Tuesday morning in the Caribbean Sea and will strengthen fast in the Gulf of Mexico before it strikes Florida on Thursday with howling winds and staggering storm surge that reach far from its center, forecasters said.

The National Hurricane Center said Helene would probably hit Florida on Thursday as a Category 3 hurricane. It was 150 miles south of the western tip of Cuba on Tuesday afternoon and churning west-northwest at 12 mph. Forecasters warned it would send dangerous surge and punishing winds across a region battered in recent years from devastating storms.

Hurricane and tropical storm warnings are in effect for much of the Florida Gulf Coast, where residents raced to prepare for the large and fast-moving system.

Models on Tuesday showed the storm would hit just south of Tallahassee, and forecasters said predictions are “tightly clustered” on landfall in Florida. The track could still change slightly. But forecasters said the storm’s reach is huge: Helene is far larger than most hurricanes that have formed at similar latitudes, the National Hurricane Center said, and could threaten most of Florida’s western coast.

Helene could cool South MS temps

South Mississippi is forecast to avoid the fury, and forecasters said no significant impacts are expected in the region.

Instead, the Coast could see clear, cooler weather by Friday, said Jacob Zeringue, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Slidell.

While Helene batters Florida with punishing winds from the Gulf, winds that churn counterclockwise around Helene could blow dry air toward the Mississippi Coast and lower humidity Thursday and Friday, Zeringue said. The winds could also cool temperatures to the 70s and low 80s, especially in the mornings.

Helene’s outer rain bands could send showers to Harrison and Jackson counties on Thursday. Far-eastern Jackson County could get up to 2 inches of rain.

The Coast could also see 10 to 15 mph winds, Zeringue said, and gusts could create choppy waves for boaters on Thursday in the Mississippi Sound. Winds should slow by Friday.

The worst surge and winds often hit east of a hurricane because winds spiral counterclockwise around the eyewall. The Coast bore the east side of recent Hurricane Francine, which sent storm surge, strong winds and tornado warnings to Hancock County.

But this time, Mississippi will get dryer winds that gust from the north instead of wet, tropical storm winds from open water.

Any minor storm impacts would likely hit the eastern side of Jackson County, which on Tuesday morning had just a 5 percent change of flash flooding and only a 5 to 10 percent chance of tropical storm-force winds.

“We’re pretty lucky,” Zeringue said.

Helene will rapidly strengthen

Helene will soon cross record-warm oceans that could fuel its strength, forecasters said.

The storm is expected to become a hurricane on Wednesday. It will reach peak power in 48 hours over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and decreasing wind shear could send it surging toward Florida, the National Hurricane Center said Tuesday. Forecasters said Helene could remain that powerful until it reaches land.

It’s forecast reach is at the 90th percentile of major hurricane size at similar latitudes, the National Hurricane Center said.

So Florida was still bracing, and forecasters said parts of the state could get more than 10 feet of storm surge. Helene could also inundate Georgia, Tennessee and much of the southeast U.S. with heavy rains after landfall.

This is a developing story and will be updated.