Tropical system could develop and approach Florida next week, hurricane center says

The National Hurricane Center increased odds for a tropical system to develop in the Atlantic that now has Florida within its long-term forecast.

As of the NHC’s 8 p.m. tropical outlook Saturday, the area of disturbed weather was located over the central tropical Atlantic and expected to interact with an approaching tropical wave in the next several days.

“Environmental conditions are forecast to become conducive for some development in a day or two, and a tropical depression could form around midweek while the system is near or over the northern Leeward Islands, Greater Antilles or
southwestern Atlantic Ocean,” forecasters said.

The NHC gives it a 40% chance of development in the next seven days, which is slightly higher than Friday’s forecast when the NHC began tracking the system.

Its long-range forecast path includes a wide scope of the Caribbean and Bahamas with the edge also including the Florida peninsula.

The Atlantic has not had a named system since what was Hurricane Beryl made its way through the Caribbean, Mexico and Texas. The NHC’s last advisory for that storm came on July 10.

A heavy presence of Saharan dust spread west from the African coast in the weeks since, stunting tropical development.

If this system were to develop into a named storm, it could take on the name Tropical Storm Debby.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast an above average year in the Atlantic with 17 to 25 named storms, of which eight to 13 are expected to become hurricanes, and four to seven of those becoming major hurricanes.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30.