Tropical wave could bring swelling seas, surf and stronger rip currents to Gulf Coast

A tropical wave that could end up heading toward Florida is continuing to move northwest. Forecasters say there is a medium chance of the wave developing over the next seven days.

Meteorologists cautioned Gulf Coast residents to keep an eye on the low-pressure area as it moves over the Greater Antilles and toward the Bahamas over the next few days. How it navigates the Antilles will play key role in whether it strengthens and heads toward the Gulf Coast or the East Coast.

Should the wave strengthen and reach sustained wind speeds of 39 mph, it could become Tropical Storm Debby.

Life of a hurricane: What's the difference between a tropical disturbance and storm? Here's what to know

The National Hurricane Center has been tracking the tropical wave, which is a series of low-pressure areas, over the past few days. The wave has a 60% chance of development over the next seven days, and NHC forecasters say it could form into a tropical depression late this week.

"The tropical wave is currently battling a harsh environment in a sea of dry air as it moves west across the Atlantic," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. "The dry air is working to keep the wave from gaining any organization during this week."

The dry air is part of a Saharan dust plume that had dampened tropical development in the Atlantic over the past few weeks. The subsiding effects of the dust will again make conditions in the Atlantic ripe for developing storms as we head into the peak of hurricane season.

Here’s what to know about the tropical wave potentially heading toward Florida.

Will the tropical storm hit Florida?

The storm is currently disorganized and it’s still pretty early to make concrete predictions, but all early signs appear that the storm will impact Florida in some aspect.

AccuWeather warns that residents along Florida’s Gulf and east coasts should keep an eye on the storm and be prepared as it continues its path west.

The tropical wave is battling dry air and wind shear that is hindering its development, but that won’t last forever. Later this week, the storm is expected to move past these conditions and begin strengthening.

Once the storm reaches the Greater Antilles, how it moves around the area will determine whether the storm will track up the eastern coast of the United States or move into the Gulf Coast.

Gulf Coast residents who remember Hurricane Ivan understand the dangers an unpredictable storm can present.

Why Gulf Coast residents should monitor the tropical storm eyeing Florida

The storm will likely be relatively dormant and poorly organized until it approaches Florida, according to AccuWeather, giving residents who may ultimately be impacted little opportunity to prepare.

"Around this weekend, the wave will move into an area with fairly low shear and ample moisture, and that could allow some organization and strengthening," DaSilva said.

DaSilva expects one of two scenarios to occur once the storm reaches the Greater Antilles.

"A major caveat is where the tropical rainstorm tracks," he said. "If it tracks north [or south] of the Greater Antilles, then it will have a better chance to develop as it will be removed from the towering mountains of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba."

The high mountains of the Greater Antilles could aid in squashing wind flow, which would make it difficult for the storm to organize, according to AccuWeather.

If the center of the storm avoids the islands, the area's warm waters would fuel the storm, allowing it to strengthen further.

Tropical wave could become Tropical Storm Debby

Should the tropical storm reach sustained winds of at least 39 mph, it would become Tropical Storm Debby, the fourth-named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

Storm tracker: Where is the tropical wave now?

Right now the tropical wave is nearing the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas. It’s producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

What is a tropical disturbance?

Tropical disturbances are basically a cluster of thunderstorm clouds. The clouds begin to release heat, columns of warm air begin to form as the air rises, and these columns continue to grow higher and bigger. As air pressure begins to shift, a whirlpool effect is created.

What’s a tropical depression?

A tropical depression is the next step of the process and this is when we begin to see stronger winds. This is caused by those columns of air continuing to become stronger and larger.

When the warm vapor rises to the top of the clouds and cools down, the heat it once held has to go somewhere. In this case, that heat energy is released into the air at the top of the clouds, which makes the air pressure higher. That pressure begins pushing out into the surrounding areas of low pressure, creating those stronger winds and what is essentially a loop that creates more thunderstorms.

What is a tropical cyclone?

A tropical storm becomes a tropical cyclone, or a hurricane, once sustained wind speeds reach 74 mph. At this point, the storm is massive. According to NOAA, hurricanes are at least 50,000 feet high and 125 miles across. The eye alone can range between 5 and 30 miles wide.

From here, when a hurricane continues to strengthen, meteorologists refer to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

This article originally appeared on Pensacola News Journal: Possible tropical storm Debby: What Florida Gulf Coast should know