Tropical wave jumps to 60% chance of development as it approaches Caribbean

Rachel Tucker

July 30, 2024 at 7:20 AM·1 min read

TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — The National Hurricane Center is tracking a tropical wave that now has a 60% chance of development over the next seven days.

Although it’s battling dry air right now, the system has the chance to develop into a tropical depression near the Bahamas or Greater Antilles late this week, according to NHC forecasters.

Tracking the Tropics – in space: NASA astronaut talks life in orbit, observing hurricanes

It is currently located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands. Its chances of development in the next 48 hours is near zero.

“The tropical wave sits in dry, dusty air in the Atlantic Ocean right now. That’s why no development is expected in the short term,” WFLA Meteorologist Leigh Spann said. “Some organization may happen 4-5 days from now as the dust thins a little.”

Where it’s going, and how strong it will be, remains uncertain. Several factors will play into the system’s intensity, including dry air and land interaction… That is, if it gets organized enough to develop at all.

“Forecast models do not strengthen this system much even after it gets a chance to develop this weekend,” Spann said. “Locally, our rain chances Sunday and Monday may be impacted by where this system heads, but it’s too soon to know what those impacts may be.”

Watch Tracking the Tropics on Tuesdays at 12:30 p.m. ET/11:30 a.m. CT.
Be prepared with the 2024 Hurricane Guide and stay ahead of tropical development with the Tracking the Tropics newsletter.

For the latest news, weather, sports, and streaming video, head to WFLA.

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Tropical wave jumps to 60% chance of development as it approaches Caribbean

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