Trump endorsed all 3 top Republicans running for Missouri governor. Does that help anyone?

As Missouri state Sen. Bill Eigel described his plan for mass deportations of migrants to a cheering crowd on Monday evening, the Republican candidate for governor invoked the biggest name in GOP politics, former President Donald Trump.

“He needs a good partner when we deport these illegals and that’s why I’m thrilled to announce that over the weekend Donald J. Trump endorsed my candidacy to be the next governor of the state of Missouri,” Eigel, nearly shouting, said at a campaign rally in Lee’s Summit.

What the Weldon Spring senator didn’t mention was that Trump also endorsed his two other major GOP rivals – Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe and Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft.

Trump’s endorsement always had the potential to shake up the close and bitterly fought Republican race for governor. But the three-way nod handed down in a social media post Saturday night provided no definitive statement about who the GOP presidential nominee prefers to lead Missouri.

“All have had excellent careers, and have been with me from the beginning. They are MAGA and America First all the way!” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

In the absence of clarity, Republicans and political observers are arguing over which candidate benefits from the endorsement the most in the final week of the race — and who is best positioned to capitalize on the multi-pronged vote of confidence ahead of the Aug. 6 primary election.

The answer may determine the outcome of the close race. A poll of likely voters conducted last week by Remington Research Group and sponsored by the Missouri Scout news service, found Ashcroft and Kehoe tied with 29% support; Eigel had 18%. If the Trump endorsement moves even a small number of voters, it could prove decisive.

The candidates and their political action committees have already released ads trumpeting the nod. By endorsing all three candidates, Trump has ensured that the final messaging in Missouri’s top Republican primary will center on him. Trump continued the trend on Tuesday, endorsing both Attorney General Andrew Bailey and Will Scharf, one of Trump’s lawyers, in the Republican race for attorney general.

Trump remains popular in the state, and won the 2020 election by 15.4 percentage points. His split decision echoes his endorsement in the 2022 U.S. Senate primary between Eric Greitens and Eric Schmitt, when he said he supported “ERIC.”

For Kehoe, Trump’s support may help dispel any concerns among voters that he isn’t conservative enough.

Kehoe, a state senator-turned-lieutenant governor from Jefferson City, has cut a lower-key presence in the campaign. A former car dealer, he has avoided personally the kind of bombastic rhetoric Ashcroft and Eigel have latched on to as they appeal to voters. He speaks about the need for “common sense.”

“Bill Eigel, I think most people would agree, has a conservative following right now, so I don’t know if it helps him as much as maybe some of the other candidates. I think it helps Ashcroft a little bit and I think it helps Mike Kehoe a tad more,” said James Harris, a Jefferson City-based Republican consultant close to Gov. Mike Parson, who has endorsed Kehoe.

Kehoe, Eigel and Ashcroft have all sidestepped the fact that Trump also embraced their opponents. In a video posted online on Saturday night thanking Trump for the endorsement, Kehoe says the former president knows he will work with him to shut down national borders and stop the flow of fentanyl.

“President Trump knows I’m a true conservative,” Kehoe says in the video.

Ashcroft posted an undated photo of himself standing next to Trump, with accompanying text declaring that no one had fought harder for the former president than him. In another post, Ashcroft noted that he was the only candidate endorsed by both Trump and Missouri Right to Life, an anti-abortion group.

Kehoe was the candidate least likely to receive Trump’s endorsement, said Peverill Squire, a political science professor at the University of Missouri. Trump’s decision to remain effectively neutral in the race, he said, shields Kehoe from attacks for not being committed enough to the former president.

But Squire questioned how much the three-way nod would affect the race. In addition to being a split decision, Trump also made his announcement heading into the final week of campaigning, when broadcasts and online media are saturated with candidate ads for governor and other races.

In that environment, voters’ attention becomes a precious commodity.

“The problem with anything that happens in the last week is you’re so inundated with ads and campaign material it sort of dilutes the impact of any one of them,” Squire said.

Boosting endorsement news

John Lamping, a former Republican state senator in St. Louis County, wrote on X that the endorsement heavily favors the candidate with the most money. Every candidate will spread the news as if they were the only one to receive it, he wrote, but “he who spreads the news the most earns huge advantage.”

Kehoe is the overall money leader in the race, with his campaign and a supporting PAC reporting more than $11.4 million in receipts so far. Eigel’s campaign and a supporting PAC have reported $5.8 million in receipts and Ashcroft’s campaign and supporting PAC have reported $4.2 million, according to reports filed Monday with the Missouri Ethics Commission.

The candidates and PACs quickly cut ads promoting the endorsement. Kehoe’s ad thanks Trump and notes the endorsements of law enforcement and agricultural groups. Eigel praises Trump as text on screen says “endorsed by President Trump” for the full 30-second length of his ad. The pro-Ashcroft Stand for Us PAC’s ad notes Trump’s endorsement while hitting at Kehoe over foreign ownership of agricultural land.

Jim Lembke, a former Republican state senator from St. Louis, said the endorsement aids Eigel. Lembke, who is aligned with the Missouri Freedom Caucus – a group of hard-right lawmakers that includes Eigel – said Eigel’s opponents have attempted to paint him as anti-Trump.

Last week, the Kehoe campaign said Ashcroft and Eigel “oppose President Trump” after both candidates took a more stringent position on abortion than the former president during a TV debate. Trump has called for exceptions to abortion bans for rape and incest, but both candidates indicated they support Missouri’s current ban, which only includes an exception for medical emergencies.

Lembke, who is supportive of Eigel, said voter enthusiasm has been on the candidate’s side. “I think adding the idea that President Trump has also lent his support to that intensity, I think it goes a long way,” Lembke said.

Asked on Monday who benefits the most from the Trump endorsement, Eigel didn’t directly answer.

“Well, I’ll tell you what, we’re pretty excited about it,” Eigel said. “I can’t speak for anybody else.”

The Star’s Kacen Bayless contributed reporting