Trump’s lead grows in Nevada, Rosen holds strong lead in new poll results

LAS VEGAS (KLAS) — Former President Donald Trump’s lead over President Joe Biden has grown slightly in Nevada since Trump’s conviction on 34 felony charges in New York, but the lead isn’t outside the margin of error and nearly 12% of voters remain undecided.

Results of a new Emerson College Polling/8 News Now/The Hill poll released Thursday show swing states including Nevada still favoring Trump. Compared to polling at the end of April when Trump led by 1.1 percentage points, his lead in Nevada is now 2.8 percentage points: 45.5% to Biden’s 42.7%, with 11.8% undecided.

U.S. Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) holds a sizeable lead over Republican candidate Sam Brown, 49.5% to 37.6% with 12.9% undecided. Brown won the Republican primary on June 11 and the campaign promises to be a bitter fight for Rosen’s seat. Both sides are already on the attack.

The poll analyzed voters in six states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Democrats in U.S. Senate and House races were doing better in Nevada than the other states, but every state showed Trump leading Biden.

“In our first polling in several key swing states since Trump’s conviction last month, there has been little movement, with support for both Trump and Biden staying largely consistent since November,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Notably, results fall within the poll’s margin of error.”

With 38.7% of Nevada voters polled saying they are Independents or members of other parties, their choices will carry a lot of weight in November. They outnumber both Democrats (32.2%) and Republicans (29.1%).

Thursday’s poll results show that 75.3% of the undecideds are from the Independent/other group, with 15.6% of Democrats still undecided. Republican voters account for 9.2% of the undecided voters.

The poll evaluated voters’ positions on abortion, asking: “If the election were held today, and there was an amendment on the ballot to establish the constitutional right to an abortion in Nevada, how would you vote?” Results show that 58.2% of Nevadans would vote yes, while 20.4% would vote no. Another 21.4% said they are not sure yet.

Nevada state law currently protects the right to abortion, but constitutional protections would be more difficult to overturn if the state’s political climate changes.

The economy — including jobs, inflation and taxes — remains the top issue for Nevada voters. More than a third (35.3%) of voters identified the economy as the most important topic, far ahead of housing affordability (14.1%), immigration (12.4%), threats to democracy (9.1%), education (8.1%), health care (6.9%), crime (5.8%) and abortion access (4.3%).

Since April’s poll, threats to democracy rose from the sixth most important issue to the fourth. Education went from fourth to fifth. Health care dropped from fifth to sixth.

Voters’ attitudes toward the candidates haven’t shown dramatic movements based on courtroom findings. The overall poll numbers don’t show any big shifts.

Direct questions about how Trump’s convictions might influence voters show that 26.9% of voters are more likely to vote for him after the convictions, and 36.8% are less likely. The jury’s decision had no impact for 36.8% of Nevada voters. (In April, 40% of Nevadans saw Trump’s trial as a witch hunt.)

The conviction of Biden’s son, Hunter Biden, had no impact for two thirds (67%) of Nevada voters. A total of 22.1% said they were less likely to vote for Biden and 10.8% said they were more likely to vote for him.

Nevadan’s gave Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo a 36.9% approval rating, down slightly from April’s 39.8%. Today’s poll shows 30.4% of voters disapprove of his performance and 32.6% were neutral or had no opinion.

Voters gave Biden a 37.5% approval rating, with 53.5% disapproving and 8.9% neutral or with no opinion.

And if undecideds (11.8%) hold the key to the November election, the poll asked those voters for a hint as to which way they were leaning: “Although you are undecided, which candidate do you lean toward?” Most said they favored Biden. In a head-to-head matchup, Biden would get another 7.6% of the vote, compared to an extra 4.2% for Trump. That would push Biden ahead, 50.3% to 49.7% — still less than the margin of error.

The poll’s credibility interval, similar to a margin of error, is +/- 3% in 19 of 20 cases in each state.

There’s also the matter of third-party candidates that aren’t taken into account in head-to-head matchups. But those candidates have to qualify for the ballot first, and that’s the subject of a lawsuit in Nevada. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s campaign has sued the Nevada Secretary of State for ballot access in a disagreement over mistakes made in instructions given to Kennedy’s campaign by a staffer in the Secretary of State’s office.

If those candidates make the ballot, they could fracture support, with an edge going to Trump:

Trump 42.1%, Biden 39.1%, Kennedy 7.2%, Cornel West 1.7%, Jill Stein 1.6% and undecided 8.3% in Nevada.

The sample for each state included 1,000 registered voters. Data was weighted by statewide voter parameters, including gender, age, race/ethnicity, education, and voter registration and turnout data.

The survey was administered by contacting respondents’ cell phones via MMS-to-web and landlines via Interactive Voice Response with respondents provided by Aristotle, along with an online panel provided by CINT. Data was collected between June 13-18, 2024. The survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Nexstar Media.

It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and know with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.

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