Trump maintains big lead over Biden and RFK Jr. despite felony conviction, Iowa Poll shows

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Two weeks after he was convicted in a New York courtroom of multiple felony counts, former President Donald Trump still holds a double-digit lead over President Joe Biden in Iowa.

A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows Trump leads Biden 50%-32% among likely voters.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who says he has qualified for Iowa’s presidential ballot, earns 9%. Another 2% of likely Iowa voters pick Libertarian presidential candidate Chase Oliver, 3% say they would vote for someone else, 1% would not vote, and 3% are not sure.

The results come less than five months out from Election Day and before either candidate formally accepts his party’s nomination at their respective national conventions this summer.

They also come just weeks after Trump was found guilty on 34 felony counts related to hush money payments he made to porn star Stormy Daniels ahead of the 2016 election.

But the horse race numbers are largely unchanged from a February Iowa Poll, when Trump led Biden 48%- 33% among likely voters. Another 15% said they would vote for someone else.

Donald Share, a 63-year-old Waterloo resident and poll respondent, said he became a Republican because of Trump and plans to vote for him in November.

“I like (that) he doesn't take any guff from anybody, that he puts America first,” Share said. “You know, we need to take care of our own before we worry about everybody else.”

He said Trump’s criminal conviction has only solidified his resolve in voting for him.

“His convictions on these charges are part of the reason my mind is made up,” Share said. “The more they try to get him out of the picture, the stronger they make him. I, for one, believe that the charges are bogus.”

Among likely voters who name a first-choice candidate, 67% say their minds are made up, while 29% say they can still be persuaded and 3% do not name a first-choice candidate.

Among Trump supporters, 76% say their minds are made up. Another 24% say they could still be persuaded.

Biden’s supporters are slightly more locked in: 81% say they are firm in their choice, and 19% say they could be persuaded.

Although the sample sizes are small, the number of supporters of other candidates who are not locked in is significant. Among Kennedy’s supporters, 82% say they could be persuaded, as do 87% of Oliver’s supporters and 60% of those supporting someone else.

The poll of 806 Iowa adults was done June 9-14 by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, and it has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. The questions of 632 likely voters have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

Biden approval rating continues ‘consistent decline’

As the election nears, Biden’s approval rating among all Iowans remains low at 28%. Sixty-seven percent disapprove of his performance as president, and 5% are not sure.

That’s down a tick from the 29% approval he earned in February 2024 and his 30% showing in March 2023.

Pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., said the numbers are important symbolically because they represent a “consistent decline” over time.

“It's not that that's a lot of change,” she said. “It's just that the direction is consistently downward.”

Seventy-seven percent of Democrats approve of Biden’s performance, and 97% of Republicans disapprove. Independents tilt toward disapproval more than 2 to 1, with 69% disapproving and 24% approving of the president’s performance.

Biden performs best with those 65 and older, although a greater share disapprove than approve. Among that group, 46% say they approve and 52% say they disapprove.

That’s in contrast with those younger than 35, who are Biden’s worst demographic group. Just 15% of those younger than 35 approve of Biden’s job performance, while 76% disapprove. That’s slightly worse than in February, when 21% approved and 76% disapproved.

Biden’s approval ratings also are low across a range of issues facing the country.

Iowans rate the president highest for his handling of abortion: 32% say they approve and 52% disapprove.

Danielle Goedken, 23, of Cedar Falls, a poll respondent, said she plans to vote for Biden this fall − reluctantly.

“I kind of picked my lesser of two evils, in a sense,” said Goedken, who has a bachelor’s degree in political science. “It wasn't an easy decision to come to, but I felt that (Biden) was the most closely aligned with my values.”

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In particular, she approves of how he is handling issues around abortion. 

“President Biden, I think, really does align himself well with the Democratic Party (and) that he has made his position very well known,” Goedken said.

She is among the 68% of Iowans who disapprove of how Biden is handling immigration. Another 24% approve.

“Trump and Biden − despite what Biden had campaigned on − their policies are very similar,” she said.

Biden continued work on “the wall that Trump had started and couldn't complete. Biden has reversed executive orders from Trump regarding immigration, but (Biden) has also recently been creating new executive orders and new policies that are pretty much the same things he tried to get rid of.”

When it comes to inflation, 25% of Iowans say they approve of the job Biden is doing, while 69% disapprove.

And 23% approve of the way he’s handled the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, while 64% disapprove.

Overall, Biden is viewed favorably by 33% of Iowans and unfavorably by 66%.

Among members of his own party, he has held steady from 87% in February to 86% today.

More: How is the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll conducted? Let us explain.

Trump maintains favorability numbers but struggles with independent women

Biden performs substantially lower than Trump, who is viewed favorably by 51% and unfavorably by 47%.

The former president has maintained his popularity among Republicans, 86% of whom view him favorably, which is unchanged from February.

Among independents, 48% view him favorably and 50% view him unfavorably. That’s an improvement from February when it was 42%-53%.

But there are stark differences in the way independent women and independent men view the former president.

Among men who say they are independent, 54% have a favorable view of Trump and 43% have an unfavorable view.

That’s reversed for independent women, just 41% of whom say they have a favorable view of Trump compared with 58% who have an unfavorable view.

‘Double haters’ in Iowa prefer third-party candidates over Biden, Trump

Biden and Trump each have large shares of Iowans who view them unfavorably.

Biden has the highest unfavorable rating of any politician tested in the Iowa Poll at 66%. That includes 50% of Iowans who say they have a very unfavorable view of him.

Trump has the highest unfavorable rating of any Republican politician tested in the poll at 47%. That includes 37% who say they have a very unfavorable view.

Thirteen percent of likely voters say they have an unfavorable view of both candidates. Pundits and analysts have focused on this group of “double haters” who are turned off by both candidates.

According to the poll, Iowa’s double haters tilt toward Biden over Trump, 26%-16%.

But 26% go for Kennedy, 11% for Oliver and 14% for someone else.

Iowans believe nation is headed in the wrong direction

Iowans overwhelmingly believe the country is headed in the wrong direction.

Seventy-seven percent say things in the country have gotten off on the wrong track, and just 17% say things are headed in the right direction.

That includes 96% of Republicans who believe the country is headed in the wrong direction and 45% of Democrats.

It continues a string of historically low ratings under Biden’s presidency.

In July 2022, just 10% of Iowans said they thought things were headed in the right direction − the lowest point in the Iowa Poll’s history. The previous record had been 18% during the Great Recession in 2008.

Since July 2022, no more than 20% have said they believe the country is headed in the right direction.

Contributing: Samantha Hernandez, Des Moines Register

Brianne Pfannenstiel is the chief politics reporter for the Des Moines Register. She is also covering the 2024 presidential race for USA TODAY as a senior national campaign correspondent. Reach her at bpfann@dmreg.com or 515-284-8244. Follow her on Twitter at @brianneDMR.

About the Iowa Poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted June 9-14, 2024, for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 806 Iowans ages 18 or older. Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted households with randomly selected landline and cell phone numbers supplied by Dynata. Interviews were administered in English. Responses were adjusted by age, sex and congressional district to reflect the general population based on recent American Community Survey estimates.

Questions based on the sample of 806 Iowa adults have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit and, on digital platforms, links to originating content on The Des Moines Register and Mediacom is prohibited.

This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Iowa Poll: New results on Biden, Trump, Kennedy in presidential race