Trump shooting fallout: Ohio experts say assassination attempt could galvanize base

In the wake of the attempt on former President Donald Trump’s life, Ohioans find themselves navigating new wrinkles in an already complex and charged political landscape.

The shooting not only intensified the already passionate support among Trump's base as his seeks to again win the presidency but also raised profound questions about the increasingly violent rhetoric within U.S. politics, political science professors told The Dispatch.

Christopher Devine, a political science professor at the University of Dayton, underscored the unprecedented nature of this event in the digital era. With no direct historical parallel in the United States in the age of social media, Devine highlighted the rapid dissemination of information and speculation, which could exacerbate existing political divides.

"The speed at which information — and misinformation — spreads can deeply influence public perception and political reactions," he said.

Herb Asher, a professor of political science at Ohio State, speculated the shooting might boost Trump’s campaign in Ohio, a state he is favored to win, and could potentially influence down-ballot races, including Democratic U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown's critical Senate race with Republican Bernie Moreno and several key judicial positions.

“If Trump’s response is seen as unifying or presidential, it could sway undecided voters, but it could also energize his base if he adopts a more combative stance,” Asher stated.

Sen. JD Vance's fiery reaction questioned

Devine expressed concerns over immediate partisan responses, particularly citing Ohio U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance’s quick move to blame political adversaries, a tactic that might shape both the narrative and strategy of Trump’s campaign.

Vance blamed the shooting — which happened moments after Trump derided Biden as "the worst president in the history of our country — on the "central premise of the Biden campaign" and said that describing Trump in terms of fascism "led directly to President Trump's attempted assassination."

"J.D. Vance, aiming for the vice-presidential spot, likely believed his statement would resonate with Trump and his campaign supporters. However, it appears he misjudged the situation, as his comments came across as quite insensitive," said Matt Lacombe, a professor of Political Science at Case Western Reserve.

Devine agreed, mentioning that this kind of back-and-forth rhetoric can cause rapid escalation.

"Political figures are attempting to politicize the situation by blaming Joe Biden and other Democrats," Devine said. "This is reminiscent of past instances where, unfairly, political figures have been blamed and is dangerous as it will only heighten tensions."

Asher agreed with Devine's concerns, emphasizing the potential consequences of Vance's reaction within Ohio's political landscape.

"Vance's quick attribution of blame to political opponents not only intensifies the partisan divide but also risks entrenching negative sentiments among Ohio's electorate," Asher explained.

He further elaborated that such polarizing tactics could influence voter perception and ultimately affect turnout, particularly among independents who might be disillusioned by the escalating political rhetoric.

Asher also noted the strategic implications for Trump's campaign, suggesting that aligning with Vance’s aggressive stance could potentially solidify Trump’s base but alienate moderate and undecided voters.

"The choice to adopt a combative tone in the aftermath of this assassination attempt could redefine Trump's campaign strategy, making it either a rallying cry for his supporters or a point of significant contention that energizes opposition," Asher said.

Brown has publicly condemned the political violence. Through posts on X, Brown extended sympathies to Trump and the rally attendees, reinforcing a stance against violence.

Assassination attempt could have lasting impact

Asher said that history can give a glimpse of how the attempt on Trump's life could mobilize sentiment toward Trump. But history says the attempt on the former's president life is no guarantee that he will win in November. The U.S. has a history of violence toward political candidates.

Theodore Roosevelt was shot during a 1912 campaign speech. Roosevelt eventually lost his bid to serve a third term.

An assassin shot and killed Robert F. Kennedy in 1968 after a speech at a Los Angeles hotel.

Alabama Democrat George Wallace was shot and paralyzed in 1972 at a shopping center in Maryland while campaigning in the Democratic primary election. The shooting ended Wallace's candidacy for president, but the former segregationist's political career continued.

Asher compared the potential effects with those of other historical incidents, such as the attempted 1981 assassination of Ronald Reagan and the shooting of Gabby Giffords, which mobilized public sentiment. Trump is still expected to take the stage at the Republican National Convention this week, where the topic of the Pennsylvania shooting is expected to play a central role in the event.

“Events like these can galvanize a base, as seen with Reagan, or lead to significant shifts in policy and political engagement,” Asher said.

Lacombe agreed, suggesting that with Ohio already holding a deep base of supporters, the Trump campaign is likely to see an influx in donations.

"This terrible incident will likely boost fundraising efforts among Trump's dedicated Ohio supporters, who are now even more motivated." Lacombe said.

He also mentioned the potential impact Saturday evening may have on moderate voters.

"For those undecided voters, it presents a chance for Trump to present himself as more approachable and sympathetic" Lacombe said.

Building on Lacombe's observation, Devine provided further insight into the broader implications of the event.

“The real question is whether this event prompts a tactical shift towards unity, or if it deepens the trenches in an already polarized landscape,” Devine said.

jewolf@gannett.com

This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: Trump shooting: What assassination attempt could mean in Ohio politics