Trump verdict has little NC voter impact, says ECU poll
RALEIGH, N.C. (WNCN) — If you thought a guilty verdict against Donald Trump might help Democrats in the fall, you may be wrong. A new poll conducted by East Carolina University also reveals how former president Trump differs from another Republican on the North Carolina ballot.
As Democrat Roy Cooper’s second term comes to an end, North Carolina will elect a new governor. The leading candidates are NC Attorney General Josh Stein (D) and Lt. Governor Mark Robinson (R). ECU polling of likely voters found 44% favor Stein and 43% favor Robinson. But Josh Stein has a commanding lead with registered Unaffiliated voters which is the state’s largest voting block.
“Josh Stein wins the independent vote in our poll by a 46-35 advantage. So, an 11-point advantage there. If Josh Stein wins this election, it will be independent voters who get him to the finish line,” said Peter Francia. Professor Francia is the director of the ECU Center for Survey Research.
Francia also points out that turnout can make all the difference. “On the Mark Robinson side, he wins virtually all of the Republicans that we polled. So, if Republicans turn out is high and strong in this election, that could be enough to get Mark Robinson to the finish line,” he said.
There is no doubt both the Joe Biden and Donald Trump campaigns are eager to know if Trump’s felony convictions will sway North Carolina voters. 32% of those polled said they’re more likely to vote for Trump due to the verdict, 29% less likely and 37% say the verdict has no impact.
In the now post-verdict world of NC voters, Trump has a five-point lead over of Biden with Trump at 48% and Biden at 43%. The poll also shows that 96% of voters have already decided who they will vote for.
“Keep in mind Donald Trump was the president for four years. Joe Biden, the president for four years. These are familiar names, familiar faces, people know both candidates well, and they’ve formed opinions that are unlikely to be moved,” said Francia.
President Biden has until November to convince people his economy is heading in the right direction while Trump works to convince voters he’s the better person to improve it.
When it comes to the most important issue for North Carolinians, 42% said inflation and/or the overall cost of living, 17% said the economy in general, 13% said new state laws on abortion and 10% said border security topped their list.
“We wanted to get at what is the single most important and what really drives voters to make a choice there. And when you do that the economy wins hands down,” said Francia.
Of those polled, 46% approve of Governor Cooper’s job performance.
“For a governor who is nearing the end of his second term, that’s a real accomplishment. Voters often sour on incumbents in their second term, but Roy Cooper has been able to maintain at least a relative amount of popularity as the governor of this state,” said Francia.
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