Trump will win Kentucky in November. So, why is Andy Beshear a VP candidate for the Dems?

In our Reality Check stories, Herald-Leader journalists dig deeper into questions over facts, consequences and accountability. Read more. Story idea? hlcityregion@herald-leader.com.

Late Monday night, it became official: Kamala Harris has earned enough delegates to clinch the Democratic nomination for president.

Now, the next logical question is being asked in Washington, D.C., as well as Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona and Kentucky: Who should be her running mate?

And building on that question is this one: Who can help her win the electoral college against former President Donald Trump come Nov. 5?

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear is one of roughly a half-dozen candidates being mentioned to run alongside Harris, the current VP. He has fully endorsed her campaign and has not denied interest in running as a vice presidential nominee.

The governor has defied political gravity, winning three hotly contested election bouts against Republicans despite the state’s conservative leanings. And at 46, he’s still quite young for a politician.

But here’s the truth: Beshear won’t help Harris flip Kentucky blue and earn its eight electoral votes, political observers say.

Since 2016, Kentucky has clearly been Trump Country, outside the urban centers of Lexington and Louisville. Trump won the Bluegrass State by more than 25 points in 2016 and again in 2020.

Four years ago, Kentuckians handed Trump his sixth-highest margin of victory of any state.

So why is Beshear in the mix alongside North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, all of whom hail from true presidential swing states?

Political observers has touted Beshear’s ability to connect with voters and constituents, especially on the campaign trail and in moments of great tragedy in communities.

He’s twice knocked off Trump-endorsed Republicans while winning the governor’s mansion in Frankfort, and that playbook against incumbent Gov. Matt Bevin in 2019 and then-Attorney General Daniel Cameron in 2023 has grabbed plenty of Democrats’ attention.

Beshear, with his disarming personality, is also viewed as someone who could sell Harris’ vision in strategic pockets of the Midwestern swing states, especially Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. All three are critical if Harris is to defeat Trump, political experts say.

Jonathan Miller, former Democratic state treasurer, said that swing state considerations “almost never matter,” and shouldn’t really in this instance.

“The last time a VP candidate was able to decisively bring their home state to the top of the ticket was 1960,” Miller said.

(Sixty-four years ago, Texas Sen. Lyndon B. Johnson helped John F. Kennedy knock off Republican Richard Nixon by an incredibly slim margin.)

“We talk about it so often — every four years we go through the same exercise of, but it almost never matters,” Miller added. “To me, the important issue is, ‘What kind of messaging does he add to the ticket?’ I think the plus factor is this contrast between him and (Trump’s VP nominee) JD Vance.”

Miller noted Beshear’s comments on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” program Monday morning claiming that Vance “ain’t from” Kentucky and chiding Vance for critiquing Appalachian people as lazy.

Vance’s rendering of rural and Rust Belt America, informed by his time growing up in an Ohio steel town between Cincinnati and Dayton and often visiting his ancestral home in Eastern Kentucky, was crystallized in his New York Times bestselling memoir “Hillbilly Elegy.”

The book has served as a lightning rod for discourse on the issues facing the greater Appalachian region since its 2016 release.

It was heralded by some as a compelling portrait of American life in the Trump era, but it garnered criticism from many Eastern Kentucky natives for playing into stereotypes about the region.

University of Kentucky political science professor Stephen Voss said research confirms Miller’s claim that choosing a vice presidential candidate in pursuit of winning a particular state would likely be “foolish.”

“Much more important — and I’m guessing the Harris advisers know this — is the chemistry between the presidential candidate and the vice presidential candidate,” he said.

“The main role the VP pick plays is giving us more information about the presidential nominee and what sort of president that person would make.”

Former GOP Secretary of State Trey Grayson disagreed, saying that many party power brokers could be swayed by a swing-state pick such as Cooper or Kelly.

“It would be helpful to be from a swing state,” he said. “I wouldn’t think (Beshear’s) in the top one or two. But, you know, the top one or two don’t always say yes.”

Miller, a prominent attorney who serves as partner-in-charge of Frost Brown Todd’s Washington, D.C. and Lexington offices, added that conversations around the capital confirm Beshear is a legitimate contender.

“I certainly cannot tell you what’s on Kamala Harris’ mind, but I can tell you that people around her, people in D.C., people that really follow this closely, are taking Andy Beshear very seriously,” Miler said.

“I can’t promise he’s gonna get it, but I’m very confident he’s being seriously considered.”