VCU poll: Harris' lead over Trump trimmed in Virginia; independents could be ace in hole
RICHMOND – The latest Virginia Commonwealth University poll on the 2024 presidential election shows a slight narrowing of Vice President Kamala Harris’ lead over former president Donald Trump among likely Virginia voters.
According to the VCU Wilder School Commonwealth Poll, Harris still led Trump 43% to 37%, but that seven percentage-point margin is slimmer than the 10% margin in the August survey. The former president still leads Harris in preference among independent voters, but Harris continues to lead among younger voters and is ahead by a wide margin among older voters.
With the overall margin-of-error of 4.6% factored in, the survey continues to indicate Virginia as a toss-up in the Nov. 5 election.
The poll results were released Wednesday by the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs.
In a statement accompanying the results, former Virginia Gov. Douglas Wilder said the small drop in Harris’ lead was not “alarming” but should be a wake-up call for Virginia Democrats hoping to keep the state blue for the fifth consecutive presidential election. It also shows the sway that Virginia’s independent voters hold over that outcome.
“Independents could make a real difference,” Wilder said. “The race in Virginia could be decided by who gets their voters to turn out, and voting has already started.”
Early voting for the election began Sept. 20 and runs through Nov. 2.
More: Early voting turnout across Tri-City area remains steady and ahead of 2020 pace: The data
What are independents saying?
While nine of every 10 Democratic voters and eight of every 10 Republican voters are pledged to their candidates, the push between now and November likely will focus on courting independent and undecided voters.
Twenty-nine percent of the independent voters polled support Trump, compared to 16% for Harris. Nineteen percent say they are undecided, while 16% said they do not plan to vote.
Those numbers shifted slightly from the previous poll and saw Trump pick up 1% independents while Harris stayed level. “Undecided” increased 8%, while the number of respondents not planning to vote slipped 6%.
How do voters feel about issues?
Other takeaways from the latest poll show the following:
The top three concerns – cost-of-living, women’s reproductive rights and immigration – remained consistent with previous polls at 33%, 20% and 12%, respectively. To no one’s surprise, reproductive rights are tops with Democratic voters (39%) while 45% of GOP-leaning and 30% of independent voters cite cost-of-living.
Respondents indicated they trust Trump over Harris in handling the economy, 42%-38%. That represents a shift from the last poll that showed a virtual tie.
Trump also is the most trusted among handling immigration issues by an identical margin as the economy. Thirty-two percent of independent voters said they also backed the former president.
On reproductive rights, Harris appears to be trusted twice as much (49%) as Trump (23%). Independent voters are not too sure, as one-third of them polled said they trusted neither candidate. Among Democrats, Harris is trusted 91%. Fifty-one percent of the Republicans said they trusted Trump, but one-quarter of the GOP voters said they trusted neither candidate.
A total of 832 Virginians were polled between Sept. 16-25, according to the poll directors. The survey was conducted for the Wilder School by the polling firm Responsive Management.
Bill Atkinson (he/him/his) is an award-winning journalist who covers breaking news, government and politics. Reach him at batkinson@progress-index.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @BAtkinson_PI.
This article originally appeared on The Progress-Index: VCU releases latest Commonwealth Poll results