Von der Leyen's future to be decided in crunch European Parliament vote

In 2019, Ursula von der Leyen secured the top job in Brussels by the skin of her teeth, when she was appointed to the Commission presidency by a margin of just nine votes in the European Parliament, the narrowest on record.

Five years on, the 65-year-old German is bidding for a second term – and there's an ominous sense of déjà vu in the corridors of Strasbourg.

That's because von der Leyen needs an absolute majority of votes in the 720-seat chamber on Thursday if she is to secure five more years at the executive's helm.

While her own European People's Party (EPP) is confident she has both the numbers and the mandate after the party's commanding win in the June elections, the margin of the vote could be slim again this year.

Von der Leyen has been credited with steering the bloc through one of its most tumultuous terms, including a global pandemic, the Ukraine war and the energy crisis.

"I think all members of the European Parliament understand what's at stake. It's not only about the personality of Ursula von der Leyen, who has shown her leadership abilities (...) but also a question of the stability of the European Union," EPP lawmaker and former Lithuanian prime minister Andrius Kubilius told Euronews.

But she also divides opinion. Right-wing conservatives have slammed her once-unwavering commitment to making Europe the first climate-neutral continent in the world, while allies to her left have accused her of cosying up to the hard right and allowing them to dilute her green ambitions.

The Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and the liberals of Renew Europe will likely back her after she vowed not to pursue a formal partnership with ultra-conservative forces such as the lawmakers of Giorgia Meloni's Brothers of Italy in the next legislature.

Together with the EPP, the three centrist groups hold a total of 401 seats, enough to see the candidate sail through. But it is well known that the mavericks among them are likely to vote her down, shielded by the secrecy of the ballot.

The French and Slovenian delegations in the EPP have already made it clear they would defy the consensus and vote against their party's lead candidate. Among the Liberals, the Irish delegation is set to join the opposition in protest over her response to the Israel-Hamas war, while the Germans, Slovaks and Portuguese are on the fence.

Greens emerge as unlikely kingmakers

The uncertainty has left von der Leyen with no option but to fish extra votes from the Greens and the hard-right European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), exchanging policy pledges in return for support.

But with these two groups ideologically far apart - and the Greens making their support conditional on von der Leyen ruling out formal cooperation with the ECR - she has been forced to walk an impossible tightrope to secure their endorsements.

Speaking to reporters after a one-hour meeting with the ECR on Tuesday, von der Leyen described the session as "intense" and was accosted by a Polish member hailing from the Law and Justice (PiS) party as she left the room.

"She manipulated the procedure and we will not vote for her," PiS MEP Arkadiusz Mularczyk told reporters. However, he admitted that some members of his group would end up lending their votes to von der Leyen, such as those belonging to Czechia's Civic Democratic Party (ODS) and Belgium's New Flemish Alliance (NVA).

It remains unclear how the lawmakers of Meloni’s Brothers of Italy (FdI) will vote, after the premier, furious about being excluded from the deal-making process, abstained on von der Leyen's reappointment in the European Council.

Hostility towards von der Leyen within the ECR means that, despite losing seats in the election, the Greens' 53 lawmakers could emerge as kingmakers in the re-election. A Green MEP told Euronews that it was likely they would lend their votes to her if only to avoid the "institutional crisis" that would erupt if her candidature fell.

"We recognise that the alternative EPP candidate could be even worse than von der Leyen," the MEP said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

"But it is still not 100% clear what it means when she promises no formal collaboration with hard-right forces such as the ECR."

A ruling in a high-stakes legal case brought against von der Leyen's executive by the Greens was announced on Wednesday, with the bloc's General Court saying the Commission did not give "sufficiently wide access" to COVID-19 vaccine contracts.

Despite the timing of the ruling delivering a blow to von der Leyen on the eve of the vote, it is not expected to swerve the Greens' votes, an MEP from the group confirmed.

The key will be the big speech that von der Leyen will deliver on Thursday morning, laying out the priorities for her (potential) five-year mandate. It will be then, another Green MEP said, that the group's 53 MEPs will make up their minds.

Alternative is 'institutional crisis'

Perhaps recent events across the Atlantic have also turned the tide in von der Leyen's favour. Several MEPs conceded that Donald Trump's failed assassination attempt could galvanise his voters and boost his prospects of returning to the White House following November's presidential election.

Von der Leyen is a staunch supporter of Ukraine, and under her leadership the bloc has provided military, financial and humanitarian aid estimated at about €100 billion.

If her candidacy were to be voted down, it would sow further instability across the EU just when the future of Western support to the war-torn nation looks more fragile than ever.

The lack of a credible alternative to the incumbent, diplomats say, means the bloc would be thrust into an unprecedented "institutional crisis." The 27 leaders would have up to one month to propose a new name, an assignment they would surely resent.

A similar feeling is spreading across the hemicycle: many MEPs might put aside their complaints and grievances and gather around von der Leyen, a familiar character with tested credentials, rather than risking an out-of-the-blue replacement.

"When we don't know how the Americans will behave in the elections, Europe needs to have stability, and stability comes with the appointment of the institutional leadership of the European Union," said Andrius Kubilius.

"Those who will vote against von der Leyen will serve the purposes which Putin wants to achieve and maybe what Mr Orbán wants to achieve - destabilisation of the European Union, the weakening of the European Union."

This threat has been made all the more apparent in the wake of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's so-called "peace mission," which controversially took him to Kyiv, Moscow, Beijing and Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida.

It signals an increasing sense of cooperation between political forces sceptical of Western support of Ukraine on both sides of the Atlantic.

Von der Leyen's approval would provide continuity and stability at a time of deep international uncertainty, another MEP said.