Warmer temps, more extreme weather forecasted in latest assessment of Maine climate

Passersby observe the floodwaters at Veterans Memorial Park on the banks of the Androscoggin River in Lewiston on Dec. 20, 2023. (Jim Neuger/ Maine Morning Star)

Warmer temperatures and more extreme weather. 

That is the forecast outlined in a recently-released assessment of climate change and its impacts on Maine. 

In the study, the Maine Climate Council’s Scientific and Technical Subcommittee found that the state’s climate is getting warmer. According to the subcommittee, 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023 have all ranked among the ten warmest years on record in Maine. That comes as 2023 was the hottest year globally since record-keeping began in 1850.

The report projects that temperatures could increase in Maine 2 to 4 degrees Fahrenheit by 2050 and up to 10 degrees by 2100.   

The impacts extend beyond warming temperatures. The state’s climate is also getting wetter, the report authors found, with the state now receiving an additional 1-2 days a year with two or more inches of precipitation and 2-3 more days with an inch of precipitation. Maine saw an example of that this winter when an intense and rare atmospheric river struck the state, causing millions of dollars in damage. 

The study also reported that sea level in Maine is 7.5 inches higher than it was in the early 20th century and that the rate of sea level rise has almost doubled in the last three decades. At the same time, the Gulf of Maine is heating up faster than 97% of ocean surfaces and is experiencing near-permanent heat waves, putting marine species like lobster at risk.    

Overall, the report found that Maine will experience more extreme weather, with both wet and dry periods becoming more intense. The state’s warm season is increasing, while the length of winter and the amount of snow and ice is declining. Still, when they do occur, winter storms are likely to be more intense, although the frequency of such events going forward is uncertain. 

“The science of a changing climate in Maine tells us that indicators of change are continuing and accelerating, and so too must our science-informed, equitable, and comprehensive response,” Ivan Fernandez, co-chair of the Scientific and Technical Subcommittee, said in a statement. 

“Maine is a leader on climate change, and yet there is much more to do,” Fernandez added. “Business as usual is not an option and time is not on our side. Yet hope springs from having a plan like Maine Won’t Wait to focus our limited resources on solutions.” 

The Maine Won’t Wait plan is intended as a roadmap for how to reduce emissions 45% by 2030 and 80% by 2050, as required by a 2019 law. The Maine Climate Council is working to update the climate action plan by December.   

However, the state is currently being sued by the Conservation Law Foundation, Maine Youth Action and Sierra Club, which are arguing that officials have failed to take the necessary steps to cut emissions as mandated by the 2019 law. Attorneys for the state filed a motion to dismiss that lawsuit last week. 

Additional climate impacts

Maine’s changing climate will come with a series of other impacts, the scientific subcommittee report found. Examples include the state becoming more vulnerable to increased illnesses and death from extreme heat, cold and flooding; high rates of lyme disease from growing deer tick populations; various other pest-related ailments; diminished air quality from western wildfire smoke and increased amounts of pollen; and threats to food security. 

On that last point, the report stated that variability in the weather is curbing crop yields, creating increased burdens on farmers. While the authors acknowledged that Maine will experience a longer growing season due to warmer temperatures, they noted that the benefits of that “could be curtailed or even eliminated if the increase in growing degree days is not synchronized with a matching shift in the dates of spring and fall frosts, or if heat waves, droughts, or other extreme weather events degrade productivity.” 

The study also noted that climate change can impact people’s mental health. “In Maine and around the world, populations that may be at particular risk for the mental health impacts of climate change are children and adolescents, women, and Indigenous peoples,” the authors wrote. “Like other regions, Maine has a significant gap in available mental health services for those in need.” 

Climate change is bringing about economic impacts as well. For example, the report found that Mainers will see the second highest rise in the country in home insurance rates in 2024. 

Furthermore, the study identified that certain populations — including those living in rural areas, older people, low-income Mainers, and people in places with climate-reliant resources — are likely to be especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.  

Other concerns surfaced in the report include threats posed to biodiversity, issues for freshwater areas due to flooding and other ecosystem shifts, and changes to Maine’s forest landscape connected to warming temperatures. 

Along with the need to reduce emissions, the report also discusses climate resilience. The authors argued that “resilience to climate change depends on relationships: this includes a strong sense of community among residents, solid connections between the economy and healthy natural systems, and maintaining ties to heritage.” 

Finally, the authors of the report noted that it’s crucial for people to maintain hope. Having a plan, such as the Maine Won’t Wait roadmap, is important for that, they argued.  

“Hope helps people cast a vision of what future success will look like,” the authors stated. “Every success is an opportunity to show that the future we want is possible.”

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