Who will win the US presidential election? Latest odds and polls

Kamala Harris has opened up a marginal two-percentage-point lead over US presidential rival Donald Trump, according to the latest poll.

Vice president Harris became the presumptive Democratic Party nominee after winning pledges from a majority of delegates after Joe Biden withdrew from the race, her campaign said.

President Biden had faced mounting pressure to pull out after a disastrous performance in a TV debate against Trump at the end of June and a series of political gaffes.

Harris already has the backing of Biden and several other high-profile Democrats to take the party's nomination in August and face off against Trump in the November election.

These include former president Bill Clinton and ex-presidential nominees Hillary Clinton and John Kerry, although Barack Obama is yet to give Harris his backing.

All 50 state Democratic party chairs have also issued their support for Harris, a month away from the party's convention to confirm a nominee on 19 August in Chicago, Illinois.

The big question, however, is can Harris beat Trump in the presidential election should she become her party's nominee?

What do the polls say?

Pollsters were previously primarily focused on Biden versus Trump, but since the TV debate and the speculation surrounding the president they have been hedging their bets somewhat, asking the electorate how Harris might fare against the former president.

It means there is quite a clear picture of what people in the US think would happen should Trump face off against Harris in the election in November.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted on Monday and Tuesday following Biden’s announcement on Sunday he was leaving the race and endorsing Harris.

It showed Harris leading Trump 44% to 42% in the national poll, a difference within the 3-percentage-point margin of error.

The two presidential hopefuls were tied at 44% in a 15-16 July poll, and Trump led by one percentage point in a 1-2 July poll, both within the same margin of error.

In a CBS/YouGov poll carried out between 16 and 18 July, three days before Biden announced he would withdraw, Trump had a lead over Harris of 51% to 48% (with 1% stating, 'I would not vote'). In the same poll, Trump had a bigger lead over Biden, of 52% to 47%, indicating the Democrats have a better chance of winning now he has withdrawn.

In a poll conducted by Reuters/Ipsos on 16 July, however, Harris and Trump both polled at 44% among those surveyed, suggesting any race between the pair could be closer than expected.

In the immediate aftermath of the assassination attempt on his life, Trump had a major bump in the polls, with an Economist/YouGov survey putting him on 44% to Harris's 39%. That same poll had Biden doing better than Harris, losing to Trump with a more narrow margin, trailing by 43% to 41%.

Watch: Kamala Harris - US vice president and favoured Biden successor

While most of the polls pitting Harris against Trump favour the Republican nominee, Harris did come out on top of the NPR/PBS/NewsHour/Marist poll conducted on 9 and 10 July, which had her on 50% of the vote compared to Trump's 49%.

What do the latest odds say?

Understandably, Harris has had a considerable boost at the bookies since Biden's withdrawal.

Last Monday, betting aggregate site Oddschecker had her at 10/1 to be the next president, compared to 9/2 for Biden, while Trump was a hot favourite at 2/5.

A week later and in the wake of Biden's announcement, Trump's odds haven't varied much – he is at 4/6 in the betting with Oddschecker – but Harris is now down to 4/1 and looking like the only credible threat to the former president.

Who is on the Republican ticket?

Trump named Ohio senator JD Vance as his vice-presidential nominee last week during the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

Vance, 39, was once a strident critic of Trump, but has become one of his staunchest supporters.

A venture capitalist who went to Yale, Vance is the author of the bestselling novel Hillbilly Elegy, which was subsequently adapted into a film.

He admitted he had said "bad things" about Trump in the past but that it was important to admit he was wrong.

• Read more: Fury over Trump’s running mate JD Vance claiming UK is an ‘Islamist country’ (The Independent)

• Read more: JD Vance is a disturbing choice for vice-president (The Telegraph)

Who is on the Democratic ticket?

Harris has the backing of a number of senior Democratic figures, including former president Bill Clinton, while all 50 of the party's state chairs have endorsed her.

A presidential nominee won't be officially selected until the party's convention between 19 and 22 August, but it is highly likely Harris will remain on the ticket, except she will swap places, becoming the presidential nominee rather than the vice-presidential nominee under Biden.

Speculation has already begun about who might be her own vice-president pick, with a number of names in the frame.

These include Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro, Kentucky governor Andy Beshear, North Carolina governor Roy Cooper, transportation secretary Pete Buttigieg, California governor Gavin Newsom and junior Arizona senator Mark Kelly.

• Read more: Who could be Kamala Harris’s running mate now Biden has dropped out the race? (The Independent)

• Read more: Celebs endorse Kamala Harris for president in droves as Joe Biden drops out (PA Media)