Why this U.S. senator may have the inside track to be Donald Trump's running mate

In 2008, in the very pages of The Topeka Capital-Journal, I was the only political pundit anywhere to correctly — and publicly — predict both vice-presidential picks: Sarah Palin and Joe Biden.

According to news reports, high school student Maria Toliver, of Marshall, Missouri, also got them both correct, but only told her government teacher.

Since then, I’ve never missed on a VP prediction pick. I note this because as a political analyst it’s something to be proud of but also because it’s hard to do.

How many of us had Dan Quayle as our No. 1 choice for George H.W. Bush in 1988? Joe Lieberman for Al Gore in 2000? Dick Cheney for George Bush in 2000? Even Mike Pence was a bit of a surprise in 2016.

Donald Trump will want someone who can competently do the job of president in an emergency and also someone who can help him win the election. With the caveat that my VP streak has to end sometime, here is Trump’s current list and my evaluation of the strongest candidate to be his No. 1 pick.

No. 7: Kristi Noem. The super conservative South Dakota Governor is a Trump loyalist (in 2020, reportedly giving Trump a mini-bust depicting his face as carved into Mount Rushmore). Revelations that she shot a pet dog and a goat for being ornery have hurt her chances.

No. 6: Marco Rubio. The current senator from Florida and 2016 presidential candidate is of Cuban descent and thus could reach out to minority voters. But Florida is already a lock for Trump, which diminishes Rubio's appeal.

Nos. 5 and 4. Doug Burgum and Ben Carson. The current governor of North Dakota and the former Trump housing secretary are two conservative and safe choices. Both have previously run for president, but neither would pose a danger of outshining Trump, especially Carson.

No. 3: Tucker Carlson. The former CNN, PBS, MSNBC (!) and Fox News host is indeed on Trump’s short list. It’s been noted that he is “widely viewed as one of the ideological godfathers of Trumpian Republicanism.” Choosing Carlson would make no sense on multiple strategic fronts — for example, he has no geographic base — but Trump’s celebrity and “ratings-focused” politics have blown up so many norms that in this election year, it seems perfectly logical.

No. 2: J.D. Vance. The 39-year old senator from Ohio has turned from a Trump-skeptic to a super-loyalist. He boasts an intriguing backstory (growing up in poverty, Marine veteran, Yale Law School) and would be seen as a natural complement to Trump and his base of fierce supporters.

No. 1: Tim Scott. The current U.S. senator from South Carolina is also a former city councilor, state legislator and U.S. congressman. He is battle-tested, having run for the Republican nomination for president before dropping out in November and is a formidable fundraiser.

As I wrote in October after seeing him campaign in Iowa: “Scott is arguably the feel-good candidate for conservative Republican voters. The U.S. senator from South Carolina has a warm smile and gracious southern charm and quickly has the standing-room-only crowd laughing freely. As he says, 'Thank you for laughing, by the way. You make it easier when we’re having a good time together.'”

Trump reportedly wants to cut into Biden’s share of the Black vote, and Scott — the only Black Republican in the Senate — could help him reach those voters.

This article originally appeared on Topeka Capital-Journal: Why this U.S. senator may could end up as Donald Trump's running mate