When will we have a winner? Maloy’s slim lead keeps shrinking — but still not within recount range

Utah’s 2nd Congressional district debate between Colby Jenkins and Congresswoman Celeste Maloy at the KUED studios at the University of Utah in Salt Lake City on Monday, June 10, 2024. (Pool photo by Scott G Winterton/Deseret News)

Almost a week after the primary, the Republican race for Utah’s 2nd Congressional District is still undecided and as close as ever.

While Rep. Celeste Maloy’s razor-thin lead over her challenger Colby Jenkins continues to slightly shrink day by day, it’s looking increasingly unlikely that Jenkins will overtake her. His best hope at this point is for a recount — which remains out of reach, but inching closer. 

Updated election results posted after 4 p.m. Monday afternoon showed Maloy had 50.15% of the vote (53,372 votes) to Jenkins’ 49.85% (53,063 votes).

Friday evening, only 381 votes had separated the two candidates. As of Monday afternoon, that margin shrank to 309. While close, it’s still not within the roughly 266-vote margin needed to qualify for a recount, which under Utah law would need to be equal to or less than 0.25% of the total number of votes cast. 

As of Monday, Maloy’s campaign had not declared victory, and Jenkins had not conceded, though Jenkins’ campaign last week told Deseret News it was holding out hope for the possibility of a recount.

Because of its razor-thin margins, it’s possible this race will remain undecided until after counties’ canvass deadline on July 9. The election isn’t final until after the statewide canvass certifies the results on July 22. 

“Every vote counts, every vote will matter,” Jenkins said Friday on X.

Since last week, the number of yet-to-be-counted ballots has steadily decreased to a trickle. County clerks in counties that could decide the race — including Washington County, where Jenkins lives and found a stronghold support in both number and percentage of votes — have reported a dwindling number of outstanding ballots. 

As of Friday, the Washington County Clerk reported poll workers were still working to cure about 650 remaining ballots by contacting voters to correct errors or verify signatures. As of Monday, Jenkins continued to hold a healthy lead over Maloy in Washington County, with more than 59% to Maloy’s nearly 41% out of about 35,755 votes cast. 

Jenkins is trailing Maloy, however, in most other counties across the state, including along the Wasatch Front. Tooele County was the only other moderately-sized county where Jenkins is ahead of Maloy, leading with just over 52%. He’s also leading her in tiny Juab County, with 70 votes to Maloy’s 52 votes. 

Matthew Burbank, political science professor at the University of Utah, told Utah News Dispatch on Thursday that while Maloy’s lead could shrink as more ballots are counted, he said it’s appearing unlikely that the race will flip.

“I think unless something odd happens here,” he said, “she’s probably going to win.”

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