Without Biden, choosing Harris is a less risky option for Democrats, local political experts say

Jul. 21—There's good reason Vice President Kamala Harris has emerged as the most likely replacement as the Democratic nominee for president, experts said Sunday.

After President Joe Biden announced he was dropping out of the 2024 presidential race Sunday, he endorsed Harris shortly after.

Cornell Clayton, the Director of the Thomas S. Foley Institute for Public Policy and Public Service at Washington State University, said the Democratic Party is in a "delicate dance" in deciding whether to nominate Harris. Party leaders don't want it to appear there are "backroom deals" being made to uplift her if other candidates suddenly decide to throw their hat in the ring, he said. But some may not try at all.

"Democratic voters may want to see someone other than Harris for a more open process," Clayton said. "But there are very few, if any serious, contenders who would try to challenge her at this point."

If the party does nominate someone other than Harris, it could also lead to a disorganized Democratic Party, which decreases election chances, he said. It also poses a challenge for Republicans, who had planned to run their campaign against Biden, and spent the majority of the year speaking out against him.

"That contrast all of a sudden goes away," Clayton said. " They'll continue to go after Harris if she's the nominee... But it'll be harder to make the argument that she's 'frail' in leadership."

Because Harris already appeared on the 2020 primary ticket, running a campaign in four months shouldn't be extremely difficult. It would be more challenging for contenders who haven't been in the primary spotlight at all, Clayton said.

No restrictions are in place for Biden's donations going to Harris since she already was on the ticket. Things would become more complicated if the Democratic Party decides to pick a nominee other than Harris, he said. The funds would have to pour into political action committees or a third party.

Considering the long history of American presidential campaigns, it's not unprecedented for a candidate to win a party nomination without going through the usual primary election cycle. The last Democratic nominee selected at a convention without winning a primary was in 1968.

"We've been through a lot of changes since," Clayton said. "From a historical standpoint it's not unusual. But in recent history, it is unusual."

If the Democratic Party nominates Harris, she may be better off picking a vice presidential candidate who is from the Midwest, which are "must-win" states for the party because of how close presidential elections have been in recent years. Former President Donald Trump won Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan in 2016 but lost them in 2020.

Clayton said Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro could be a good vice presidential pick, or Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, because she has potential to "bring Michigan with her." Although having two women on a presidential ticket might be appealing to some Democrats, it may not be appealing to other voters.

Another factor, Clayton said, is 45% of Republicans will vote for whoever their nominee is, and so will 45% of Democrats, just because they are of the same party.

"We are living in a period of deep and high levels of political polarization," Clayton said. "So you don't see a lot of movement in terms of preferences. You're playing for 10% of the public who are open to voting for one or the other."

Michael Ritter, an assistant professor of political science at WSU, noted that Biden's decision to leave the race also isn't unprecedented. President Lyndon B. Johnson dropped his 1968 re-election bid after criticisms arose from within the party over the Vietnam War.

It is, however, an "older way" of selecting a new candidate based on who is "better" for the future of the party and the nation, he said, especially since the Democratic Party wants a candidate more competitive with Trump.

Biden was called on to drop out of the race from many prominent Democrats due to his age or "fitness," and polling numbers reflected that, Ritter said.

"So maybe they'll feel reassured in Harris" if she becomes the nominee.

It also could be a turning point for younger generations to come out and vote, since Harris is 59 years old and Trump's vice presidential pick, J.D Vance, is 39.

"Maybe this is a movement for younger candidates. I do think it would help young voters. Americans (can be) swayed from voting because of age," Ritter said. "Descriptive representation is what we call politicians who accurately represent their constituents. If we have candidates closer to the average age of the population, we could theorize younger age groups would be more likely to turn out. And it would be a big deal, since they're less likely to turn out."

Ritter said he will be keeping an eye on the voters who can often sway the results of an election for the next week.

"Something to be mindful of is to see how independents and polling (of independents) respond to this shakeup of the Democratic ticket," he said.

Meanwhile, younger generations also are flooding social media with mostly positive, humorous social media posts about Harris. Some have even edited her laugh or comments from her press conferences into popular songs by stars like Britney Spears and Taylor Swift, going viral across the website X.

Media portrayals matter in elections, too, Ritter said, and could make a difference. The debates between former Presidents Richard Nixon and John F. Kennedy in 1960 gave a glimpse into how people respond to forms of media during an election cycle.

"It was noteworthy," Ritter said. "(People) generally felt Kennedy 'looked better' when they watched television."

Going further back in time to the 1800 election between Thomas Jefferson and John Adams, Jefferson made a large use of his time with the press in order to gain favorable coverage, Ritter said.

"The lesson here is for viable candidates ... To make use of forms of mass media. And with the younger generation, social media is a popular platform if you want to energize certain groups," he said.

While there are humorous posts of Harris floating around social media, there are also posts making hateful and sexist comments towards her, too.

Gonzaga University Law Professor Ann Murphy said as of Sunday morning, mere hours after Biden endorsed Harris for president, she's seen numerous people on social media use a racial slur to describe Harris.

"That is really disturbing," Murphy said.

When Hillary Clinton lost the election to Trump in 2016, Murphy said the Democratic Party couldn't have picked someone more qualified — but regardless of that, people still believed she wasn't good enough for the presidency because she is a woman. It's concerning, Murphy said, and could be even more of a concern with Harris because she could be the first Black and Asian American woman to lead the party ticket.

"She is qualified, too," the law professor said Sunday. From Harris' past experience as California's attorney general, it will be the first time a prosecutor may go head to head with a convicted felon in an election. If so, it would be "a remarkable time in history," Murphy added, but there are still people who "will refuse to vote for a woman no matter what."

"I personally would be devastated if Harris isn't considered a viable candidate because she's a woman. Although there is still sexism, and a lot of it, i think it'll have an effect," Murphy said. "But I'm not sure how much right now."

The discourse that surrounded Biden being unfit for office due to his age as well as for misspeaking often, especially during the debate against Trump on June 27, also didn't sit well with Murphy.

Age doesn't always shape someone's credibility, she said, but she thinks that narrowed the conversation more to Harris. Murphy believes Harris' race and sex will become a larger part of the November election.

"It's unfortunate," Murphy said. "But to me, it's a historical moment."